MANDA Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Looking at latest visible loop the center is almost entirely exposed again. Recent short term motion is due west, maybe even a VERY SLIGHT just south of due west is last few images. My thinking is this ends up tracking more on the south side of the TPC cone. Until it can get better vertically stacked the general motion is going to be more west than anything. Also agree with others that this is not going to emerge into the SW Atlantic and immediately start to intensify. While all the 12Z data so far (EURO pending) wants to go fishing I'm still not sold until I see where and what condition this emerges from the Greater Antilles. I will say LR guidance does seem to have several S/W trofs in the pipeline so this may well go fishing I'm just not sure which trof gets it. Still possible ridge builds over top to send it back to the coast for a time but that chance is less likely as of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Web site for composite radar in the Caribbean area https://www.barbadosweather.org/BMS_Radar_Composite_Resp.php# 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Regardless of Fiona’s strength/land interaction/current location and heading, models are now showing a much deeper trough approaching the EC. This raises the probability of a recurve significantly. GEFS has been more adamant about this being a deeper trough and looks like other model suites are falling in-line. I expect windshield wiping to continue but not to the extent we’ve seen. I don’t want to rule anything off the table but in this setup I believe it’s a matter of how far west Fiona gets before it recurves vs whether or not the system recurves. An alternate but very unlikely scenario is the system opens up into a wave when you combine land interaction with current structure and ends up plodding west with the trade winds. That is the only way this avoids the trough given modeling trends. I don’t see an organized system of any intensity missing that trough connection 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Looks like about 90% of GEFS members recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 With regard to the CONUS, a safe recurve is clearly the best bet as of now. That has the support of the Euro, GFS suite, UKMET, and CMC. But on the 12Z JMA (slower) from 168 to 192, it gets blocked and turns west at least for a short time from a new high to its north. Also, fwiw, many of the 12Z CMC ensemble members (GEPS) hit the CONUS (2 in NE US, handful FL, and good number Gulf coast). The JMA and GEPS both bigtime suck vs the more credible Euro, GFS, and UKMET, of course. But I thought it was worth mentioning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: With regard to the CONUS, a safe recurve is clearly the best bet as of now. That has the support of the Euro, GFS suite, UKMET, and CMC. But on the 12Z JMA (slower) from 168 to 192, it gets blocked and turns west at least for a short time from a new high to its north. Also, fwiw, many of the 12Z CMC ensemble members (GEPS) hit the CONUS (2 in NE US, handful FL, and good number Gulf coast). The JMA and GEPS both bigtime suck vs the more credible Euro, GFS, and UKMET, of course. But I thought it was worth mentioning. Geps is still threatening for the gulf and Florida 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Euro crawls in the southern BahamasSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Euro crawls in the southern Bahamas Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk It also may go east of Bermuda. Way OTS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Convection once again trying to get going around the LLC. Shear must less pronounced than yesterday. Motion today has been pretty much straight west. I'm not writing this off as a U.S. impact threat until it crosses over the islands. Exactly when and where that will take place is open to question in my mind. No doubt there looks to be an impressive trof swinging through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic mid to late next week. I'm not sold on that trof picking this up just yet. We'll see but for now convection trying to get going once again around the LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It also may go east of Bermuda. Way OTS. This is looking like a nothing burger for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It also may go east of Bermuda. Way OTS. Close enough to Bermuda to be interesting. My amateur thinking at this point, after allowing myself a touch of weenie 1954 hurricane tracks yesterday, is with all the models w/ half a clue fishing after flooding Hispaniola, it fishes. Probably even if interacts with C. Hispaniola instead of the flatter E portion of the island. I see the outlier Canadian ensembles on the TT page, I suppose anything is possible, but if a betting man, my bet is now money line -300 that other than Puerto Rico and the USVI, not a US threat. The greater than 1010 mb GEFS towards Florida would be a wave, not a TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 A safe miss of the CONUS is easily the best bet on the 12Z EPS. However, fwiw, it has 6 of the 51 members (only 12%) hit the CONUS as a TS+: 2 ME, 1 SC, and 3 FL (2 far south and 1 Melbourne) that then go into the Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 You know it's desperation time when someone posts the geps. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, GaWx said: A safe miss of the CONUS is easily the best bet on the 12Z EPS. However, fwiw, it has 6 of the 51 members (only 12%) hit the CONUS as a TS+: 2 ME, 1 SC, and 3 FL (2 far south and 1 Melbourne) that then go into the Gulf. There is a 988 mb (but max winds below 30 knots) crossing the Isle of Youth, so I'd put the Gulf at 8%. There looks like a SC hit that hasn't quite happened yet as well. Trying to keep the weenie-ish SEUSA hit alive, but I think this is asking for the perfect triple phaser right over the BM blizzard situation. I will note, I remember Boxing Day, and the Sabbath observant logging off Friday evening in a funk, the models cancelled the storm, and logging back on to see blizzard warnings. Eli Manning did beat Tom Brady twice in the Super Bowl. But my objective/weenie filter activated thought is a fish other than the SE Bahamas or maybe Bermuda once the floods stop on Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Hoping there is still sunlight on Fiona when the LLC crosses Guadeloupe. I think it may die then and there. Not sure a new LLC would form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 We may need to shift our concern/tracking to potential impacts on Bermuda if the GFS is to be believed; potential cat 4/5 bearing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Very intense convective blowup right near the center with very cold cloud tops -70 / -80. Looks like Guadalupe is going to get nailed with very heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the next several hours. NE part of the island is already under the very intense convection. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 It looks like the USVI/PR and Haiti/DR are in for a rough ride. Hopefully the rainfall threat doesn’t materialize down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Supposed to be landing in Punta Cana DR on 22-Sep.....what y'all got for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Was skeptical of the stronger model solutions all day due to the way Fiona has looked today, really disheveled and disorganized. However, as mentioned earlier, the IR blowup near the center appears to be giving it some boost now. Recon shows a 45-50 knot TS with MAYBE an inner wind maxima developing. Think this may be correlated to frictional convergence created by Guadeloupe. This is supported somewhat by radar which shows intense thunderstorms around the center which is over the island Still very asymmetric, needs a lot of work on structure, and I also could be making a stretch but appears it is getting its act together. Most models which deepen Fiona to a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane within next 2 days, have a small core deepening and getting started tonight/tomorrow morning with somewhat faster deepening tomorrow night I do not think the OTS solution is set in stone, however I think the next 2 days of intensification tell a lot of story. As said a billion times less intensification= more west. The models (HMON/HWRF/GFS/EURO) are actually in fairly good agreement about the intensification phase and we'll see if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Don't know what the HWRF is doing. Has it deepening from 1004 MB to 985MB in 3 hrs. HMON shows a similar convective burst and quick deepening before PR, but it's over 24hrs not 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Don't know what the HWRF is doing. Has it deepening from 1004 MB to 985MB in 3 hrs. Has the HWRF been drinking again? You know how it gets when it drinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 IR appearance has rapidly improved over the last several hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 18z Euro is a good bit stronger than 12z through the end of the run, 90 hours. Track is similar to 12z and goes through the eastern part of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Levi's Tropical Tidbits videos are back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, Chinook said: Levi's Tropical Tidbits videos are back! Just watched. Great synopsis. Does mention that even if it does get closer to NA, the mega trough would clean it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 This might be the first time in Fiona's life that convection is on the west side of the circulation. Radar below shows the center straddling 16 N or just above it. http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Pressure fixes also indicate a deepening storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Starting to feel more and more confident it will turn out to sea after impacting Hispaniola, but still far too early to take your eyes off her. Here's a video update for you night owls. https://youtu.be/JNZM0EZlfUY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Peep that WSW motion as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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