TheDreamTraveler Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 GFS has Fiona crawling North Northwest towards the east coast. I really wonder if this thing is going to survive the trek through the islands to escape and then develop towards the coast Though to be fair about that a lot of times weak tropical storms can manage through the islands intact way better than a fully formed hurricane can. A lot of times when a strong hurricane gets shredded they find it hard to reform after escaping but weak tropical storms a lot of times fair better since their cores aren't well developed yet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Euro and GFS both playing catchup to CMC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 1 minute ago, TheDreamTraveler said: GFS has Fiona crawling North Northwest towards the east coast. I really wonder if this thing is going to survive the trek through the islands to escape and then develop towards the coast I’m watching very closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Headed for NC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Headed for NC? Looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Looks like it Maybe New England after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Maybe New England after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 OBX scraper. I suppose the whole window of options is available. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 18Z GFS is Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Carol scenario come to life (NC and dang close to SE New England). I checked his Twitter, disappointed he didn't mention Carol again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 Per NHC, Fiona dropped another 0.2 of latitude between the 5PM (AST) and 8PM positions, which is south of the NHC track. It is now down to 16.1N vs 16.6N at the 11AM position during a period in which it was forecasted to be at 16.6N now. So, it is now 35 miles south of where the 11AM track had it for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: Per NHC, Fiona dropped another 0.2 of latitude between the 5PM (AST) and 8PM positions, which is south of the NHC track. It is now down to 16.1N vs 16.6N at the 11AM position during a period in which it was forecasted to be at 16.6N now. So, it is now 35 miles south of where the 11AM track had it for now. Not shocking the gefs shifted further southwest at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 18Z GFS is Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Carol scenario come to life (NC and dang close to SE New England). I checked his Twitter, disappointed he didn't mention Carol again. That 18z gfs track was really similar to Edna from the same year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Hope something survives this trajectory to really get going. It looks like all the paths are doing some kind of topology study of all the islands. HMON does have it self=destructing. HWRF has it going strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 I think it really is a question of does this survive through the Caribbean. If it flushes Hispaniola, this thread is for nought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 00z Spaghettis continue to go more west and south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 That one single connective area near the center is interesting. Lots of surprises in store due to warm water and peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Man there are some good products out there. I forgot about this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 18z Euro ends with the center crossing Hispaniola on the eastern side of the island which is relatively flat, as opposed to 12z run which crossed right overv the mountains. If it can get through the Mona Passage or just skirt the lowlands of the island, that would make a huge difference in the outcome. You can see here what that tiny difference makes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 12 ensembles comparison 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 I am becoming more concerned about a EC impact. I think models may have jumped out to sea when the data was originally received and processed that Fiona was stronger than they had initialized. The increase in strength however did not mean a deeper system in this case. This baby is rolling with the trade winds right now. Pulsating convection is not going to pull this northward, it’s stuck in low level flow until shear abates. I think we’ll continue to see westward shifts as I believe the original out to sea shift was primarily based off the premise this was a deeper system. Florida to the Carolina’s need to watch this one. If it makes it to the Bahamas the environment becomes favorable. An upper level anticyclone and a very deep area of high oceanic heat content in a spot that is climatologically favorable. This is a real threat. Happy tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 11pm track has Fiona making landfall and moving through the DR and Haiti.... that would certainly cause some issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, yoda said: 11pm track has Fiona making landfall and moving through the DR and Haiti.... that would certainly cause some issues 18Z GFS had >15 inch storm total rain in parts of the DR. That may not be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 00z GFS OP this run gets Fiona into the SE Bahamas then moves due north... takes a leisurely pace north Days 7-10... could be a Bermuda threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 00z CMC is... weird. Follows 00z GFS in that it moves due north after reaching SE Bahamas... then at Day 7, takes a NW jog toward NC... then Day 8 says nope and starts to head NE but is near HSE at 204... then an abrupt right turn out to sea as a s/w comes barrelling into the Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Personally would love a nice big major hurricane halfway between Bermuda and the east coast. Perfect wave track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 GFS is bull. A Cat 4 hurricane nearly stationary for 100 hours? Gimme a break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 3 hours ago, Floydbuster said: GFS is bull. A Cat 4 hurricane nearly stationary for 100 hours? Gimme a break. Would be interesting to see if Fiona takes a Donna-esque path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 0z Euro crosses NW across Hispaniola and then slowly moves just north of eastern Cuba and through the eastern Bahamas. It then moves off in the general direction of the Carolinas while intensifying to a 966 mb hurricane. At 240 hours it is centered south of Cape Hatteras and due east of Jacksonville. Slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: 0z Euro crosses NW across Hispaniola and then slowly moves just north of eastern Cuba and through the eastern Bahamas. It then moves off in the general direction of the Carolinas while intensifying to a 966 mb hurricane. At 240 hours it is centered south of Cape Hatteras and due east of Jacksonville. Slow mover. A building ridge blocks the exit path 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Stage right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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