hawkeye_wx Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 And, just like that, the Euro shows how to get a landfall in Florida. Land interaction keeps Fiona weak and shallow while just enough weak ridging remains in place to the north, then the big northeast US trough digs just far enough east to barely bypass Fiona and not pull it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 EURO showing a hurricane landfall in SE Florida. Oops. Looking like it's starting to see the same setup the CMC is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The Euro is crawling. makes landfall in West Palm Beach in 9 days as a moderate TS I think that is more likely a cat 1 H landfall at WPB on the 12Z Euro (near 990 mb). Look for the 12Z EPS mean to shift SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Interesting, but we’ll see if the ensembles follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 The ECMWF solution is possible IF the storm remains weak, IF it interacts with Hispaniola enough to slow it down, and IF the ridge can build back overhead in time. Three-way parlay anyone? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Just now, Superstorm93 said: The ECMWF solution is possible IF the storm remains weak, IF it interacts with Hispaniola enough to slow it down, and IF the ridge can build back overhead in time. Three-way parlay anyone? Given how naked the center of Fiona is right now, I'd favor the weaker solution in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: The ECMWF solution is possible IF the storm remains weak, IF it interacts with Hispaniola enough to slow it down, and IF the ridge can build back overhead in time. Three-way parlay anyone? I guess we have to counter that with this. It would have to go from what it looks like now to a possible low end cat4 west of Bermuda. Given that in reality it isnt a tropical storm any longer and its looks awful this seems equally unlikely. Maybe it just opens up to a wave and just sails into Mexico. At least as far as pressure goes the Euro showing a 990 mb pressure while the gfs is showing a 941 mb pressure i would have to say the euro is a bit more realistic in strength but not necessarily in placement. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I guess we have to counter that with this. It would have to go from what it looks like now to a possible low end cat4 west of Bermuda. Given that in reality it isnt a tropical storm any longer and its looks awful this seems equally unlikely. Maybe it just opens up to a wave and just sails into Mexico. Except 80% of the modeling favors the latter fish path right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Be careful with the fish stuff. We have plenty of folks in the USVI that this may impact. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Be careful with the fish stuff. We have plenty of folks in the USVI that this may impact. Yeah, there are some serious flooding concerns down there even if this doesn’t intensify. They don’t need this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 I don't know guys...the GFS run shows Fiona deepening from 1000 mb to 971 mb in 18 hours as it crosses Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. I find that difficult to believe right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Be careful with the fish stuff. We have plenty of folks in the USVI that this may impact. Eps looks to recurve earlier than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 There's no way this will follow the GFS given its current state. Honestly a track just south of Hispaniola before any north turn wouldn't surprise me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Based on the visible loop during the course of today the LLC continues to pull away from the deep convection. The LLC is now fully exposed and decoupled from mid level vortex. Fiona will have to re-establish a LLC back under the deep convection. Going to be hard to keep this going if it does not do that. Forget all the long term tracks the main question is what does this do over the next 24-48 hours. It its current state the westward motion is going to continue. Will have to pull together rather quickly tomorrow and Saturday to get this to pass north of PR and DR/Haiti a solution I'm losing confidence in. Shaky situation unless LLC gets going under the deep convection. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Looks terrible, but flight level winds near hurricane force under the convection. 45 knot SMRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Recon is in and is finding some strong FL and SFMR readings. Doesn’t speak to the organization of it, but it’s an interesting data point nonetheless. Winds haven’t weakened yet despite the exposed LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps looks to recurve earlier than the op Yes but the members that keep it weak also are the ones threatening the coast. I honestly think at this point a slow death in the Caribbean is more likely than a recurve. But if it can survive past the islands who knows, as conditions are likely to improve 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Very intense convective blowup centered near 16N - 53W with overshooting cloud tops. Will be interesting to see if new LLC develops near this burst overnight. IF it does there will need to be some relocation of the center perhaps by tomorrow morning? LL vortex is now well removed to the east of this convective burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Minimum pressure and maximum sustained winds up at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 60 MPH and 1006 MB at 5 PM Intensity up to 60 knots near DR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Not sure what difference this makes but the strongest convection has moved a full degree south over the last few hours. At the beginning of the TT loop (16:05z) the strongest convection was between 16-17°N. At the end of the loop (20:55z) the strongest convection was between 15-16°N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Yes but the members that keep it weak also are the ones threatening the coast. I honestly think at this point a slow death in the Caribbean is more likely than a recurve. But if it can survive past the islands who knows, as conditions are likely to improve 12Z EPS implies ~30% risk of a CONUS TS+ landfall based on ~15 of TS+ members landfalling there. Per NHC, Fiona lost 0.3 degrees of latitude the last 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Yes but the members that keep it weak also are the ones threatening the coast. I honestly think at this point a slow death in the Caribbean is more likely than a recurve. But if it can survive past the islands who knows, as conditions are likely to improve Yeah this is a very intensity dependent track. If it's stronger the deep layer steering turns it north. I am leaning weaker since shear really seems to be kicking it's ass right now and I don't see much change in the upper level wind configuration over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Convection is like a full 5 degrees Latitude farther east than the center of circulation at this point. Center reformation a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 18z GFS significantly more west so far from the 12z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 Happy Hour GFS is way west vs 12Z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 There's a huge night and day difference with the 18z GFS compared to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: There's a huge night and day difference with the 18z GFS compared to 12z It's also way weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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