Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Official NHC forecast is near worst case as far as fatalities go. HaIti and the DR have had major flood disasters before. Grace killed about 2,000 people. The GFS fantasy range Long Island storm is more monetary damage if it happens, but only those that refuse to evacuate are likely to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Gfs op run has no ensemble support 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Official NHC forecast is near worst case as far as fatalities go. HaIti and the DR have had major flood disasters before. Grace killed about 2,000 people. The GFS fantasy range Long Island storm is more monetary damage if it happens, but only those that refuse to evacuate are likely to die. And as far as weenies go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: With a track like that, a weak system is almost more likely to hold together over terrain than a hurricane. Yea, I said the same thing...but who knows regarding track, at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, shaggy said: Gfs op run has no ensemble support It introduces a weakness off the coast that allows for an escape route. Could be real but if it’s not the ridge is a big player. Too early to know at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It introduces a weakness off the coast that allows for an escape route. Could be real but if it’s not the ridge is a big player. Too early to know at this point. I don't know how to find the control ensemble member that was initialized identically to the Op, but if that is a significantly different path than the op wouldn't that suggest resolution is a factor in the ensembles not agreeing with the Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 IIRC, back when I paid, and Joe Bastardi didn't just rant on politics, he said the path of WPAC TCs are sometimes mirrored a couple of weeks later in ATL storms. Just on that, Muifa and Nanmadol would suggest 7L could impact the East Coast, I can't remember if Bastardi ever gave a reason, maybe it was empirical, maybe WPAC storms that entered the mid-latitudes further W than usual influenced the East Coast trough/ridge pattern. JB has not tweeted weather today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Quite a convective burst in the last hour or so. Impressive for nearing Dmin. Doesn't really look like it's occurring over or near the center, but I don't have that expertise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Quite a convective burst in the last hour or so. Impressive for nearing Dmin. Doesn't really look like it's occurring over or near the center, but I don't have that expertise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Unlike the GFS, there’s not as much of a weakness on the 12z Euro, which puts this much closer to the Bahamas in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 …But the ridge orientation is nowhere close to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Sorry—for comparison’s sake. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sorry—for comparison’s sake. Anything beyond 5 days is fantasy range to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: IIRC, back when I paid, and Joe Bastardi didn't just rant on politics, he said the path of WPAC TCs are sometimes mirrored a couple of weeks later in ATL storms. Just on that, Muifa and Nanmadol would suggest 7L could impact the East Coast, I can't remember if Bastardi ever gave a reason, maybe it was empirical, maybe WPAC storms that entered the mid-latitudes further W than usual influenced the East Coast trough/ridge pattern. JB has not tweeted weather today. What does the BSR say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Anything beyond 5 days is fantasy range to me. Often it is but the caveat here is that guidance often has an easier time generally picking out the larger scale steering patterns. We saw that with Earl to an extent. The devil is in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Frankly I think we already have tropical storm Fiona. Considering how dry the mid-level environment is around TD 7 and the effects of westerly shear, there's a robust core with intense hot towers, as well as signs of nascant banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Please let Fiona die fast so we don’t have to say Fiona more than a few times. Fiona 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Please let Fiona die fast so we don’t have to say Fiona more than a few times. Fiona Still better than Isaias. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 35 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Please let Fiona die fast so we don’t have to say Fiona more than a few times. Fiona If it goes into Hispanola you'll get your wish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 I’m not so sure land interaction kills this one unless it’s meandering over the mountains, which looks unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sorry—for comparison’s sake. Anybody have a clue whether the GFS or Euro is closer to the truth. Pretty obvious if 7 survives the G. Antilles, it'll 'try' to fish. But will it succeed? A Long Island hurricane is exactly what AmWx needs. Storm Mode and the New England and NYC subforums in a lather. (I live in Houston but was born in NYC and grew up in Massapequa, Belle was one of my happy pre-teen memories. The people in the Hamptons have insurance, I'm sure.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Anybody have a clue whether the GFS or Euro is closer to the truth. Pretty obvious if 7 survives the G. Antilles, it'll 'try' to fish. But will it succeed? A Long Island hurricane is exactly what AmWx needs. Storm Mode and the New England and NYC subforums in a lather. (I live in Houston but was born in NYC and grew up in Massapequa, Belle was one of my happy pre-teen memories. The people in the Hamptons have insurance, I'm sure.) Far too soon to say. We're just going to be watching this through the weekend to see how the overall steering pattern shakes out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Anybody have a clue whether the GFS or Euro is closer to the truth. Pretty obvious if 7 survives the G. Antilles, it'll 'try' to fish. But will it succeed? A Long Island hurricane is exactly what AmWx needs. Storm Mode and the New England and NYC subforums in a lather. (I live in Houston but was born in NYC and grew up in Massapequa, Belle was one of my happy pre-teen memories. The people in the Hamptons have insurance, I'm sure.) 18Z GFS opens 7 into a wave, rains a lot on Hispaniola, and then has the wave redevelop near the Bahamas and come close enough to Hatteras and Cape Cod for some local thread action At a week plus away, close enough is good enough for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Earlier today the convection was near the center, leading to the upgrade to TD. Since then, however, the convection is being held in place by shear while the center continues westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Earlier today the convection was near the center, leading to the upgrade to TD. Since then, however, the convection is being held in place by shear while the center continues westward. I have no evidence about this besides subjective satellite view, would potentially infer of a possible center re-location under the deep convection to the E/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 37 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Earlier today the convection was near the center, leading to the upgrade to TD. Since then, however, the convection is being held in place by shear while the center continues westward. Normally I'd be bearish for a system becoming decoupled from its MLC, but the current one has been so persistent with such deep convection that I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes the dominant feature. Certainly the best looking tropical system deep in the MDR to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 53 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: I have no evidence about this besides subjective satellite view, would potentially infer of a possible center re-location under the deep convection to the E/SE. Latest ASCAT and microwave passes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Well damn. Gonna need a title change @GaWx Finally an overperformer Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85 km/h). This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 Wait and see what it looks like past 60W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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