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Major Hurricane Fiona


GaWx
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The 12Z ICON is a bit further south and a little weaker with it initially getting to just S of PR at 120 hours before later curving NW and then N while strengthening into a H. It ends up just E of the SE Bahamas, which is the furthest W of any run. Is this a sign that there this will keep trending SWard on later runs? I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up in the Gulf based partially on analogs fwiw.
 The 12Z GFS does ~nothing with this through 204. Its vorticity gets into the W Caribbean and may be a hint to consider.
 
 For the 2nd run in a row, the 12Z CMC has this as a TC in the Gulf with this run having it as a TS in the far E Gulf at 192. It then turns west and ends up as a H in the W GOM aiming for TX.
 The 12Z JMA, which had this as a TC the prior two days, is slightly weaker through 72 (1012 mb vs 1011 mb near the LAs). The rest of the run won't be for awhile.
 The 12Z UKMET, which has it initially only because that's how this model handles all Invests, drops this immediately afterward:
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N  46.0W    ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962022                       LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND     VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)     --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------   1200UTC 13.09.2022    0  15.3N  46.0W     1011            25   0000UTC 14.09.2022   12              CEASED TRACKING

Looks like the ICON was king here

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06z GFS has the storm making landfall in eastern Nova Scotia / Cape Breton Island at 75 hours and basically parks it or moves very slowly in  the vicinity for upwards of 12 - 15 hours.  This is highly unusual in that in the majority of cases these storms rip through that area in 3 - 6 hours.  This is going to lead to potential mass destruction in that region.  

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21 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

06z GFS has the storm making landfall in eastern Nova Scotia / Cape Breton Island at 75 hours and basically parks it or moves very slowly in  the vicinity for upwards of 12 - 15 hours.  This is highly unusual in that in the majority of cases these storms rip through that area in 3 - 6 hours.  This is going to lead to potential mass destruction in that region.  

06z Euro has the same scenario.  Pressure at landfall is 935mb on the GFS and 928mb on the Euro.

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Using the RAMMB multiplatform wind field product the IKE is 68 TJ.

Using the official NHC wind field the IKE is 39 TJ.

The wind field is forecast to expand significantly as it phases with the trough so I would not be surprised if the IKE climbs above 100 TJ as it approaches Canadian coastline.

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This is the strongest run yet from the Euro.... 921 mb just prior to landfall in Nova Scotia.

Incredible.  A near 921 mb hurricane landfalling in Nova Scotia and 12 hours later it is still drifting in the area with a pressure of 942mb.  This would be amazing if it hit Belize or another part of the Yucatán Peninsula.  However it is coming ashore at 46N.  No words.

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4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Incredible.  A near 921 mb hurricane landfalling in Nova Scotia and 12 hours later it is still drifting in the area with a pressure of 942mb.  This would be amazing if it hit Belize or another part of the Yucatán Peninsula.  However it is coming ashore at 46N.  No words.

Obviously Fiona will not be purely tropical at this point is technically forecast to be post-tropical at landfall NHC. Regardless, this storm is going to have a very large wind field at landfall. 

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