Major Hurricane Fiona

[NCsandhills]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My sisters best friend is in punta Cana on vacation.

My wife and I are supposed to be landing in PUJ this upcoming Thursday 22-Sep for our long awaited 5 day vacay......real nervous rn

[MattPetrulli]

Recon finding a mostly steady state cane, probably due to dry air entrainment from land.

[Windspeed]

Does anybody know the rain totals coming out of Puerto Rico

Most recent radar derived estimate...

[Windspeed]

That beast trough is so strong it may very well capture and phase Fiona into New Foundland, perhaps even Nova Scotia. Good take is that though Fiona may get intense, it may miss Bermuda cleanly to the west.

[WxWatcher007]

I definitely think this is a threat for Atlantic Canada. The EPS has been most west, while the GFS has waffled between a NF hit and scrape just to the east. Regardless, both the operational and ensemble guidance has been throwing out some very deep lows as this gains latitude. 

 

[Windspeed]

[WxWatcher007]

Whew, Fiona would go nuclear for a bit if that jet stream evolution played out. 

[MattPetrulli]

11 PM puts hurricane warnings up for Turks & Caicos 

[shaggy]

Anyone notice the 18z ensembles of  other the eps and gefs. had more members slowing or stalling her around bermuda? Would be bad news for them if it stalled in their area

[MattPetrulli]

Seems more of a WNW motion has commenced via radar, to be confirmed until Recon however. Punta Cana will likely end up in some part of the eyewall, if not a landfall.

[Floydbuster]

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

That beast trough is so strong it may very well capture and phase Fiona into New Foundland, perhaps even Nova Scotia. Good take is that though Fiona may get intense, it may miss Bermuda cleanly to the west.

SE ridge-Texas ridge has been trending stronger, may/will probably trend stronger in the medium term. 

[Floydbuster]

I can't believe this is moving at 10 mph. It seems as though it's almost stationary.

[Windspeed]

If not for the close proximity of mountainous terrain and land interaction in general, Fiona would be closing in on major hurricane intensity tonight. This is no longer the appearance of a struggling hurricane. Outflow is excellent. Towers firing in the eyewall. It likely will not do anything too crazy since it will crossing over NE DR, but it certainly looks like Fiona will eventually become an intense hurricane near to or just east of the Turks and Caicos tomorrow. Perhaps a bit of recovery time depending on how long it takes to clear DR. But the atmospheric envelope looks primed.

[SnowenOutThere]

And we have landfall 

[dan11295]

One minor piece of good news is central/eastern PR finally has a break in the rainfall over the past hour. Unfortunately they are not done with the rain yet with more heavy bands to go through.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

If not for the close proximity of mountainous terrain and land interaction in general, Fiona would be closing in on major hurricane intensity tonight. This is no longer the appearance of a struggling hurricane. Outflow is excellent. Towers firing in the eyewall. It likely will not do anything too crazy since it will crossing over NE DR, but it certainly looks like Fiona will eventually become an intense hurricane near to or just east of the Turks and Caicos tomorrow. Perhaps a bit of recovery time depending on how long it takes to clear DR. But the atmospheric envelope looks primed.

A take home that’s always missed is this will
Set the whole western Atlantic in motion. Large swells will effect the entire east coast causing deadly rip currents and beach erosion. Once clear of Hispaniola this has a good shot at getting to cat 4 and then later an expanding wind field will further the swell production.


.

[peribonca]

Punta cana in is for a world of hurt with a strengthening hurricane

[Windspeed]

Punta cana in is for a world of hurt with a strengthening hurricane

This is a good distance away from the NOAA radar tower in PR, so the returns from the beam are weak, but you can still easily make out the eye. Punta Cana was very likely near or in the northern eyewall this morning. They're now in the back/behind the right-front quadrant as Fiona is moving away. Fiona's structure is pretty amazing right now considering the core is entirely over land. Though this part of DR is lowlands and the outer circulation is still getting feed off the Carribean. Impressive, still.

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like the structure really pulled itself together right after I went to bed. Very impressive radar and IR appearance. 

[Tatamy]

Fiona continues to move NW over the eastern DR.

[jbenedet]

Fiona having significant land interaction with Hispaniola—something that all major guidance missed 24 hrs ago. The impending dissipation now means higher than usual short term uncertainty on track.  
Just the proximity of the 6,000 ft + mountains over central Hispaniola will do much to disrupt the mesoscale vectors funneling into Fiona’s surface circulation over next 6-10 hrs. Bold forecast to have this as a hurricane in 12 hrs. I think 75/25 we see downgrade to TS before re-emerging. 

 

 

[Windspeed]

Fiona having significant land interaction with Hispaniola—something that all major guidance missed 24 hrs ago. The impending dissipation now means higher than usual short term uncertainty on track.  
Just the proximity of the 6,000 ft + mountains over central Hispaniola will do much to disrupt the mesoscale vectors funneling into Fiona’s surface circulation over next 6-10 hrs. Bold forecast to have this as a hurricane in 12 hrs. I think 75/25 we see downgrade to TS before re-emerging. 
 
 

Agreed. I think most had expected a more northerly component to the WNW motion by this point. It's still drifting west of guidance, if subtle, having implications to shorterm intensification tonight when it clears the DR landmass. Low level inflow will be hindered more if it cannot gain some latitude. So a gradual decline intensity until it is east of Turks and Caicos seems logical now.

[qg_omega]

24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Fiona having significant land interaction with Hispaniola—something that all major guidance missed 24 hrs ago. The impending dissipation now means higher than usual short term uncertainty on track.  
Just the proximity of the 6,000 ft + mountains over central Hispaniola will do much to disrupt the mesoscale vectors funneling into Fiona’s surface circulation over next 6-10 hrs. Bold forecast to have this as a hurricane in 12 hrs. I think 75/25 we see downgrade to TS before re-emerging. 

 

 

did any model actually forecast the correct landfall in DR which was SW of Punta Cana.

[Windspeed]

Ongoing onslaught of the back feeder bands continue. Daytime heating and instability may unfortunately increase low-level convective feed/fetch, so this sadly looks to continue throughout the day until Fiona can gain some distance. No way to paint the situation but dire at this point.

[jbenedet]

45 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

did any model actually forecast the correct landfall in DR which was SW of Punta Cana.

18z yesterday run. Error of ~75 miles in 12 hrs?

 

Pretty damn bad, especially how tight the clustering is, lending high confidence to any meteorologist focused on this output.

 

We have seen this degree of error before. I believe the short term confidence is where we a really struggling in terms of these forecasts.

 

 

[Windspeed]

18z yesterday run.
 
This is pretty damn bad, especially how tight the clustering is, lending high confidence to any meteorologist focused on this output.
 
 

When modeling consensus and ensembles miss the mark, it just is what it is. Goes to show that tropical surface lows are still sometimes tough to nail even in the shorterm.

[Windspeed]

[Prismshine Productions]

18z yesterday run. Error of ~75 miles in 12 hrs?
 
Pretty damn bad, especially how tight the clustering is, lending high confidence to any meteorologist focused on this output.
 
We have seen this degree of error before. I believe the short term confidence is where we a really struggling in terms of these forecasts.
 
 

Looks like the CEMI won

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[dan11295]

Biggest concern after Fiona re-emerges is going to be Bermuda (core still looks to stay east of the Turks & Caicos). Fortunately, Bermuda has strong building codes, but if they get the eastern eye wall of a strong Cat 3 there will still be significant damage. Btw, they have never been hit directly by a Cat 4 and due to heat content limitations it would probably take close to a perfect atmospheric setup for that to happen.