Windspeed Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Looks like TJUA/NOAA's WSR-88D has gone down. Was really hoping it would stay online to estimate these absurd totals, which have already topped 15+ near the tower.Edit: Came back online. Latest images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Structure perhaps degrading a bit over the past few hrs fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 To think I flew directly over DR 7 hours ago at 35,000 feet and it was a smooth ride. Was on an aisle seat so I didn’t exactly look out the window at the outer bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Looks like the inner core has weakened somewhat, likely due to land interaction and some disruption from the terrain, as the eye has filled in partially. Makes little difference as these training bands remain the biggest impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Good grief. This is atleast another Hortense, if not Maria-type disaster for Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 6pm Video Update on Fiona https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bg-l1k4xgL0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Good grief. This is atleast another Hortense, if not Maria-type disaster for Puerto Rico. This is actually a remarkably Hortense-like track (both observed thus far, and forecast). Surprised I haven't really seen that name come up as a potential analog before. Also like that storm, Fiona took until past the Lesser Antilles to intensify to hurricane status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Pretty hard WNW wobble over the last few hours. Recon fixes should be rather interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Pretty hard WNW wobble over the last few hours. Recon fixes should be rather interesting. Was skeptical at first about a real DR landfall but quite a due west wobble last few frames and I think SE DR will get a landfall, if not the western eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Pretty hard WNW wobble over the last few hours. Recon fixes should be rather interesting. West of every model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 One would expect a turn NW soon. But it is very peculiar that its still heading west while already being south and west of the models. mountain interaction could become a factor if the turn is delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 My sisters best friend is in punta Cana on vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Bermuda look out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 My major concern is it hitting the mountains and missing the trough, then exploding in the BahamasSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 This is an interesting westward jog, but I still think it’s highly unlikely this gets disrupted enough to miss the trough altogether. It’s sheared and about to make a longer trip over land, but it’s still a vertically deep storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is an interesting westward jog, but I still think it’s highly unlikely this gets disrupted enough to miss the trough altogether. It’s sheared and about to make a longer trip over land, but it’s still a vertically deep storm. moving south of west according to recon now.. NHC had a NW movement at 8pm and its clearly not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is an interesting westward jog, but I still think it’s highly unlikely this gets disrupted enough to miss the trough altogether. It’s sheared and about to make a longer trip over land, but it’s still a vertically deep storm. The troff is unmissable. It's flushing out the western 3rd of the Atlantic and the entire Caribbean. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 18z Euro does push this a little further west and closer to the Turks and Caicos. I'd definitely be watching closely there with this westward jog. Recon is also out doing high altitude sampling of the environment ahead. Any adjustments in the steering pattern would be important for the islands, Bermuda, and potentially Atlantic Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Just south of due west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just south of due west either a weird pattern or going home already? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: either a weird pattern or going home already? My guess is that when smoothing the track out over 24 hours or so this will be a blip on a general WNW movement, but we just have to wait and see when it makes the turn NW. I don't think it's anything with the steering pattern--these things tend to be wobbles more often than not. But we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: My guess is that when smoothing the track out over 24 hours or so this will be a blip on a general WNW movement, but we just have to wait and see when it makes the turn NW. I don't think it's anything with the steering pattern--these things tend to be wobbles more often than not. But we'll see. Also, the SW/W movement could lead to intensity fluctuations. Obviously if it goes into more of DR, core could be disrupted more and thus go more west, not important in terms of US impacts but matters for SE Bahamas. Also could eventually lead to more of a miss of Bermuda and/or a weaker storm that takes more time to intensify over open water. We'll just have to see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Man, Fiona really hooked left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 More or less drifting S of W but this may just be a temporary stall. Unfortunately the slow movement is still a nightmare situation with an intense band still crossing right over the heart of PR. Not a small band either. Just insane echoes continue over the island, on and on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Man, Fiona really hooked left. The ECMWF was the furthest south and likely will end up pretty accurate unless it drifts a lot further southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Man, Fiona really hooked left. He's done all he can. If the heading continues he may miss the eyewall too but he's right on the edge. 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: More or less drifting S of W but this may just be a temporary stall. Unfortunately the slow movement is still a nightmare situation with an intense band still crossing right over the heart of PR. Not a small band either. Just insane echoes continue over the island, on and on.... There are some really extraordinary rain totals coming out of PR and they have a long way to go. This is from one of my former coworkers that has family there. The family is ok fortunately. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 The eyewall looked to be reorganizing the past few hours on radar prior to the hiatus in update about 30 minutes ago. No surprise that the CDO is taking off again with a notable hot tower in progress on satellite. Likely due to intense convection wrapping around the northern semicircle of the vortex. It appears Fiona is strengthening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Josh may have a little nasty encounter with the eyewall if he stays put as the core may take on a more WNW/NW vector soon as the vortex is clearly getting stacked and should feel the deep layer motion. Really this jog should be temporary given structure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The eyewall looked to be reorganizing the past few hours on radar prior to the hiatus in update about 30 minutes ago. No surprise that the CDO is taking off again with a notable hot tower in progress on satellite. Likely due to intense convection wrapping around the northern semicircle of the vortex. It appears Fiona is strengthening again. That southerly moist fetch over PR is straight up nasty. I can't imagine what some of the final rain totals may look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Does anybody know the rain totals coming out of Puerto Rico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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