Major Hurricane Fiona

[StormchaserChuck!]

Looks like a beast on the GFS

[tiger_deF]

CDO continues to expand, this may be the deepest convection of any named system so far in the Atlantic

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Watching GFS 500 mb CONUS heights, I think anyplace, except maybe the Eastern Gulf/Florida W. Coast, has survived Hurricane Season 2022 unscathed.   Just one trough after another into the Northeast over a semi-permanent Central US ridge, that seems like a pattern for the few remaining ATL MDR storms to fish. East Pac tropics stay busy into October per GEFS, or my idea a month ago of a hurricane, maybe a major, threatening the E Gulf/WC FLA in October seems iffy. 

Verbatim misses Bermuda, but ~950 mb Thursday night/Friday as it passes, Fiona can still impact land after Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas.  

EDIT TO ADD- based on post just before mine, at least about a week of satellite enjoyment.  It looked decent even when it was a naked swirl, if that makes any sense.  EDIT TO ADD MORE: The thing that probably just looks like an eye developing is close enough to the last recon fix maybe it is an eye developing.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Watching GFS 500 mb CONUS heights, I think anyplace, except maybe the Eastern Gulf/Florida W. Coast, has survived Hurricane Season 2020 unscathed.   Just one trough after another into the Northeast over a semi-permanent Central US ridge, that seems like a pattern for the few remaining ATL storms to fish.  MDR East Pac tropics stay busy into October per GEFS, or my idea a month ago of a hurricane, maybe a major, threatening the E Gulf/WC FLA in October seems iffy. 

Verbatim misses Bermuda, but ~950 mb Thursday night/Friday as it passes, Fiona can still impact land after Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas.  

EDIT TO ADD- based on post just before mine, at least about a week of satellite enjoyment.  It looked decent even when it was a naked swirl, if that makes any sense.

2022

[Normandy]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

I sense a center re-alignment going on.  Right west of Guadeloupe is where most of the turning is now on radar

[MattPetrulli]

As depicted by 00z Euro, probably gonna be serious flooding in PR

[Tatamy]

0z Euro takes Fiona into Nova Scotia at 174 hrs.  937mb central pressure at that time with impacts spreading into Maine.

[Tatamy]

Nova Scotia hits

0z Euro

0z CMC

[GaWx]

 Horrible flooding reported in Guadeloupe. Look out Virgin Islands and PR this weekend and DR Sunday. This has been a very wet storm. And it is going to slow down, a very lethal combination. 

[GaWx]

 Is the 0Z EPS drunk? About 30% of the members landfall on the SE US coast after only 8% at 12Z!
 Also, fwiw since not a good model, the 0Z CFS hits FL and then skirts the coast up to NC. Earlier runs were OTS. And keep in mind the 12Z JMA's sharp left turn from 168 to 192.

[Prismshine Productions]

What a weird recon data flow... surface level winds are almost C1 while FL are barely 50

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[Prismshine Productions]

 Is the 0Z EPS drunk? About 30% of the members landfall on the SE US coast after only 8% at 12Z!
 Also, fwiw since not a good model, the 0Z CFS hits FL and then skirts the coast up to NC. Earlier runs were OTS. And keep in mind the 12Z JMA's sharp left turn from 168 to 192.

Is it possible that a combination of being so shallow and near-stalling in the southern Bahamas allows it to miss the trough? That is the only thing I can thing of, Florida and South Carolina got absolutely raked (a 958 hitting Charleston is no joke)

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[Prismshine Productions]

FVOD

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[StantonParkHoya]

Really concerned for Bermuda as well

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Really concerned for Bermuda as well

Bermuda can handle Cat 3+ pretty easily.

It's PR, DR that I'm worried about. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Is the 0Z EPS drunk? About 30% of the members landfall on the SE US coast after only 8% at 12Z!
 Also, fwiw since not a good model, the 0Z CFS hits FL and then skirts the coast up to NC. Earlier runs were OTS. And keep in mind the 12Z JMA's sharp left turn from 168 to 192.

I’m not really sure what to think of it honestly.

I still strongly lean toward a GFS non continental US outcome, but the overnight guidance had some substantive upper level changes with the kicker trough IMO. Maybe it’s a hiccup run, but it’s likely an indication that it’s still too early for any locked in solutions post Antilles—another landfall or harmlessly OTS. 

We probably need to see what this looks like after the Greater Antilles, and I’m very concerned about the slowdown and flooding risk.  

[StantonParkHoya]

All of the Euro ensemble solutions that threaten US landfall basically dissipate Fiona over Hispaniola which allows it to survive and get caught up in the westerlies flow.

It still gets caught by the mega trough later on. Low probability outcome.

[cptcatz]

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

All of the Euro ensemble solutions that threaten US landfall basically dissipate Fiona over Hispaniola which allows it to survive and get caught up in the westerlies flow.

It still gets caught by the mega trough later on. Low probability outcome.

I don't think it's as low probability as you say. Fiona is a mess and significantly further south than models thought right now. It would need to make a big turn to the northwest right now if it's gonna miss the 10,000 foot mountains of Hispaniola. Most euro ensembles bring it right over the spine of the island as opposed to the GEFS members which bring it over the eastern lowlands or even the Mona Passage. On the nowcasting, I'd keep looking at how far south and west it gets before making the turn north towards Hispaniola. Could get interesting. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

All of the Euro ensemble solutions that threaten US landfall basically dissipate Fiona over Hispaniola which allows it to survive and get caught up in the westerlies flow.

It still gets caught by the mega trough later on. Low probability outcome.

Yeah I still don’t think this dissipates over Hispaniola so I agree that’s a low probability outcome, and I also agree the second trough gets it late so a straight WNW push into say the SE is unlikely. But the orientation of that trough (progressive vs cutoff) matters for Bermuda and maybe maritime Canada.

I’d still place odds at 75% no land impacts post Antilles right now. Still, something to watch as the details of the steering pattern are still being sorted out and we haven’t seen how disruptive an Hispaniola hit will be. 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Is the 0Z EPS drunk? About 30% of the members landfall on the SE US coast after only 8% at 12Z!
 Also, fwiw since not a good model, the 0Z CFS hits FL and then skirts the coast up to NC. Earlier runs were OTS. And keep in mind the 12Z JMA's sharp left turn from 168 to 192.

It's not

Fiona has been south of the models.  Gfs adjusted slightly more south.

[CIK62]

Almost GONE:

EURO Wind Swath shows path.      Some wind here Friday PM.

Not so good for Bermuda next Friday:     150km *0.62 or about 90mph, before any gusts.

[MANDA]

Based on morning visible and IR satellite and latest recon data Fiona is clearly getting her act together.  Assuming this trend continues and I expect it will Fiona will become more vertically stacked and less subject to the low level flow.  Based on a more vertically stacked system the turn to the WNW then NW over the next few days is becoming very likely.  Depending on how fast it continues to organize it could turn sooner than later and possibly even pass over the Mona Passage or western PR.    Conditions over the SW Atlantic are going to be quite favorable and the water is untouched so far this season and is very warm.  Fiona has excellent chance to eventually become a major hurricane by mid to late next week.  Odds increasing that with a stronger system the major trof coming east later this week will catch her and take her out.   Various ensemble members (the weakest ones) take her more westward toward the SE coast but based on current trends this is becoming unlikely.

Still have to keep an eye to make sure current trends hold but this is not looking like an east coast threat.

Morning satellite pictures show a more symmetric and organizing tropical cyclone.  Puerto Rico looks to be next in line for some excessive rainfall and flooding - especially since Fiona will be moving slowly as she goes near or over the island.  Best looking system so far this season at that latitude by far.

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's not

Fiona has been south of the models.  Gfs adjusted slightly more south.

Why did I get a weenie ? My post was the truth. 

[MJO812]

Several eps members still taking this further west towards Florida 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[MANDA]

Watching satellite last few hours looks like outflow is becoming established, especially to the north and east.  No doubt in my mind Fiona is getting better organized and aligned.  Satellite shows a developing hurricane in my opinion.

[cptcatz]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Watching satellite last few hours looks like outflow is becoming established, especially to the north and east.  No doubt in my mind Fiona is getting better organized and aligned.  Satellite shows a developing hurricane in my opinion.

It's interesting that it does like nice on satellite yet recon is finding a mess with high pressures and unimpressive winds. Maybe once it gets organized it will intensify quickly?

[hawkeye_wx]

The latest recon fix jumped north and is up to 1006 mb, so the core is weak and messy.

[MANDA]

13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The latest recon fix jumped north and is up to 1006 mb, so the core is weak and messy.

It is organizing and the overall structure with developing outflow looks impressive.  Let's give this 12 hours and see where this goes but it is in a developing and re-organizing phase for sure.  Shear much reduced over last several days.  Fiona is on her way to hurricane status!  We've not seen a satellite picture look this good in the deep tropics all season - nothing even close.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The latest recon fix jumped north and is up to 1006 mb, so the core is weak and messy.

Another case of the IR being deceiving. It’s clearly in flux right now structurally. I do think the center trying to vertically align is a sign that we have higher odds of modest intensification before PR. Interesting that 30 kt RI odds are that high. That’s concerning. 
 

Tropical Storm Fiona Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 17 2022

Fiona is going through some structural changes this morning.  From 
a zoomed-out view on satellite imagery, Fiona appears better 
organized compared to previous days, with the convective envelope 
becoming more symmetric, and upper-level outflow expanding around 
most of the storm.  However, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft data indicate that the central part of the 
circulation still lacks some vertical coherency.  From the best we 
can tell from the aircraft data, the low-level center appears to be 
re-forming farther east near a recent burst of deep convection.  
The central pressure may have risen a bit during this 
re-organization process, but maximum winds are still estimated to 
be 50 kt.

With the center re-formation, the initial motion has become more 
uncertain, although Fiona has definitely slowed down from 
yesterday.  The longer-term average motion is 275/7 kt.  The track 
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Fiona expected to 
gradually recurve around the western extent of the western 
Atlantic subtropical ridge through the 5-day forecast period.  The 
big change, however, is that the adjusted initial position due to 
the center re-formation has tugged all of the guidance eastward on 
this cycle.  The new NHC forecast is also east of the previous one 
and lies close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, now showing a 
track near or over the western part of Puerto Rico in about 36 
hours.  The caveat to this forecast is that additional center 
re-formations could cause models to shift again, and therefore 
there's quite a bit of uncertainty in the short-term track 
forecast.  Especially in cases like this, users are reminded to not 
focus solely on the track forecast itself, and to account for 
potential shifts in the track east or west.

The upper-level environment over Fiona has improved, and deep-layer 
shear is expected to be light to moderate for the next several 
days.  In fact, along with a favorable thermodynamic environment, 
the Rapid Intensification Indices have increased, and now show a 
1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours.  There is 
some uncertainty as to how quickly Fiona can take advantage of 
these favorable conditions given its current structure.  But either 
way, intensification is anticipated, and Fiona is likely to be near 
or at hurricane strength while it moves near Puerto Rico on Sunday. 
The NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous 
prediction, but it still lies below the intensity consensus aids.  
If Fiona gets better organized today, then it's possible that 
additional increases to the intensity forecast will be forthcoming 
later today. 

Key Messages:

1.  Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Puerto 
Rico Sunday and Sunday night, and are possible across the U.S. 
Virgin Islands tonight and Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions will 
continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands today and will 
spread westward to the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later 
today, and to Puerto Rico tonight.  Tropical storm conditions will 
reach the Dominican Republic by Sunday night.

2. Heavy rains from Fiona will spread west to the British and U.S. 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, the Dominican Republic Sunday, 
and the Turks and Caicos Monday night. This rainfall is likely to 
produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban 
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, 
particularly in Puerto Rico.

3. Fiona is forecast to strengthen while moving near Puerto Rico 
and the Dominican Republic through Monday, and interests in the 
Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should continue to 
monitor forecasts for the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 16.3N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 16.6N  64.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 17.3N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 18.2N  67.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO
 48H  19/1200Z 19.2N  68.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 20.4N  69.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 21.6N  70.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 23.9N  70.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 27.6N  69.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg