WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 30 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Yeah I am pretty certain that is old wall cloud debris slowly dissipating. Fiona is looking pretty sexy right now. Wonder what peak will end up being. I'm going to say 145 mph sustained sometime during the day tomorrow, though certainly it could get there tonight. There’s also been mesovortices rotating throughout the eye of Fiona today so it could be another mesovortice that went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Don't know how the HWRF does with hybrid systems, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 That’s the silliest wind field I have ever seen at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Don't know how the HWRF does with hybrid systems, but... It does decent from my understanding. Outside of the hurricane models the EURO does better than the GFS with hybrid storms. Still there’s a lot of agreement among the models that a sub 930mb Fiona strikes Nova Scotia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Latest VDMSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 It does decent from my understanding. Outside of the hurricane models the EURO does better than the GFS with hybrid storms. Still there’s a lot of agreement among the models that a sub 930mb Fiona strikes Nova Scotia.I am finding the sub 930s hard to believe even with all the model agreement. Perhaps sub 940, but it just seems a bit too extreme, though obviously not impossible. That's a good 30 mb below their records. We shall see... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 1 hour ago, Tezeta said: That’s the silliest wind field I have ever seen at 850 We need a larger wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 That’s the silliest wind field I have ever seen at 850Honestly it being a hybrid system almost seems like a worst case scenario 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Wonky structure issues continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Wonky structure issues continue Double eyewall so it’s likely an EWRC or the one from yesterday that haven’t completed yet. These internal processes can take 24hrs or more to complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 1 hour ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Double eyewall so it’s likely an EWRC or the one from yesterday that haven’t completed yet. These internal processes can take 24hrs or more to complete. Seems to be some kind of constant EWRC process that keeps repeating. Already a partial secondary eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Seems to be some kind of constant EWRC process that keeps repeating. Already a partial secondary eyewall. Yeah these internal processes can be prolonged and last a day or more. Some cyclones can be plagued with constant internal processes their whole life. Theory here is that Fiona has had this constant EWRC to fend off the sheared environment it was in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 36 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Yeah these internal processes can be prolonged and last a day or more. Some cyclones can be plagued with constant internal processes their whole life. Theory here is that Fiona has had this constant EWRC to fend off the sheared environment it was in. It would seem I was wrong, it just took all day yesterday for the EWRC to complete and now the eye just needs to wrap convection around and contract. The satellite ended up being misleading in this case https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2022_07L/web/mainpage.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 With cooler waters and increasing shear, it's possible the pressure doesn't change much between now and landfall. Just a big expansion of the windfield due to ET transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Looks a bit more symmetrical now and the eye is less ragged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 I knew operationally there were watch/warning breakpoints on the Labrador coast, but I never expected to see them actually used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 35 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said: I knew operationally there were watch/warning breakpoints on the Labrador coast, but I never expected to see them actually used. Back 15-20 years ago, Canada never issued Hurricane or Tropical Storm warnings, just general rain/wind warnings. I assume because most storms affecting Canada were either close to or already post-tropical at the time of impact. After Hurricane Juan in 2003 (which was clearly tropical at landfall) they starting issuing Hurricane/TS warnings. When the NHC overhauled their warning system for transitioning systems in the U.S. following the Sandy debacle, Canada has starting following the NHC lead to also issue warnings for similar transitioning systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 As of 15Z... Based on RAMMB wind field product IKE is now 82 TJ. Based on NHC official wind field IKE is now 74 TJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Back 15-20 years ago, Canada never issued Hurricane or Tropical Storm warnings, just general rain/wind warnings. I assume because most storms affecting Canada were either close to or already post-tropical at the time of impact. After Hurricane Juan in 2003 (which was clearly tropical at landfall) they starting issuing Hurricane/TS warnings. When the NHC overhauled their warning system for transitioning systems in the U.S. following the Sandy debacle, Canada has starting following the NHC lead to also issue warnings for similar transitioning systems. This is correct. Also storms of a tropical nature are more frequent now. In the past it was years in between glancing blows. Now we get a direct threat every couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 37 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Back 15-20 years ago, Canada never issued Hurricane or Tropical Storm warnings, just general rain/wind warnings. I assume because most storms affecting Canada were either close to or already post-tropical at the time of impact. After Hurricane Juan in 2003 (which was clearly tropical at landfall) they starting issuing Hurricane/TS warnings. When the NHC overhauled their warning system for transitioning systems in the U.S. following the Sandy debacle, Canada has starting following the NHC lead to also issue warnings for similar transitioning systems. Yes, I knew that. I don’t know if they’ve used the watches/warnings for Labrador yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Fiona may be trying for a new peak strength this afternoon as the satellite presentation is really looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 E-W cross section of Hurricane Fiona, winds (colorized), isotherms of 0C, -12C, -18C, (blue, purple) isentropic surfaces (black), The thing that looks like a hill at the middle of the picture is a little confusing. The sea-level pressures of the storm are below 1000mb, with a strong gradient down to a recon-measured 937mb, I believe. 1000mb is the bottom of the image, so it must show the 937mb pressure as a hill shape. You can see the 0C, -12C, and -18C isotherms bump up in the middle, as well as the isentropic surfaces bump down. That means that the core of the hurricane is the location where the latent heat release has warmed the atmosphere the most. And then there's the 128kt wind in the eyewall, reducing to 20kt in the eye. It does show asymmetry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Fiona is a beautiful storm this afternoon. This is going to be a big event for Atlantic Canada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 The NHC's "squished-Mercator-ish" map (I'm no cartographer) looks really weird when it has to be stretched from the mid-Atlantic to the Arctic Circle. I also noticed they didn't bother marking the wind speed probabilities above 60N. First time I think I've seen that cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Just your typical 914 mb hurricane up in Canada 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Just now, thunderbolt said: Just your typical 914 mb hurricane up in Canada Next will be Seeing 2 feet of snow in Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Just for fun I plugged in that HWRF wind field into the IKE calculator and got 180 TJ and that's with some conservative assumptions I made due to the extreme inhomogeneity in the field. That is on par with Isabele and tops Sandy. I doubt it actually gets that high, but like I said earlier I would not be surprised if it goes above 100 TJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 1 hour ago, bdgwx said: Just for fun I plugged in that HWRF wind field into the IKE calculator and got 180 TJ and that's with some conservative assumptions I made due to the extreme inhomogeneity in the field. That is on par with Isabele and tops Sandy. I doubt it actually gets that high, but like I said earlier I would not be surprised if it goes above 100 TJ. How much of the coastline is susceptible to surge there. Is most of it elevated cliffs or is a lot of it low lying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Going to be really interesting to see what the landfall pressure is (even if it's just an estimate). 930s would be impressive, let alone these runs in the 920s or 910s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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