Major Hurricane Fiona

[Hazey]

I feel bad for the Sable Island ponies. I know they are a hardy breed and have handled storms before but i'm not sure what nearly 200kph will do to a sand bar with no real shelter. 

[Bostonseminole]

Gonna suck for my cottage in PEI, hopefully it’s does not flood, faces the north beaches.


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[Bostonseminole]

Just told my mother in law in Stanley bridge to leave..Bridge out of PEI will close Friday probably


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[Radtechwxman]

Not sure Fiona will hit 140mph. Think max may have been reached. Not looking as great on satellite. 

[Santa Clause]

Fiona looking ragged 

[marsman]

From Canadian Hurricane Centre:  4-8" of rain and 30+ foot waves in the Gulf of St. Lawrence

Quote

....

Fiona expected to impact Atlantic Canada and eastern Quebec with heavy rainfall and powerful hurricane force winds for the start of the weekend.

.....

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

This storm is shaping up to be a potentially severe event for Atlantic Canada. Numerous weather models are quite consistent in their prediction of what we call a deep hybrid low pressure system, possessing both tropical and intense winter storm-type properties (but with very heavy rainfall and severe winds).
The latest forecast guidance brings hurricane Fiona off-shore to the south of Nova Scotia Friday night, passing through eastern Nova Scotia and Cape Breton Saturday, and then reaching the Lower Quebec North Shore and Southeastern Labrador early Sunday. Severe winds and rainfall will have major impacts for eastern Prince Edward Island, eastern Nova Scotia, western Newfoundland, eastern Quebec, and southeastern Labrador. There will also be large waves, especially for the Atlantic coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Finally, there is a high likelihood of storm surge for parts of Nova Scotia, Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland.

a. Wind.

Most regions will experience some hurricane force winds. These severe winds will begin impacting the region late Friday and continue on Saturday. Similar cyclones of this nature have produced structural damage to buildings. Construction sites may be particularly vulnerable. Wind impacts will likely be enhanced by foliage on the trees, potentially causing prolonged utility outages

b. Rainfall.

Rainfall will be significant, especially north and west of Fiona's track, where heavy rainfall could lead to flooding. the highest rainfall amounts are likely for eastern Nova Scotia, southwestern Newfoundland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence region. Forecast guidance is suggesting widespread amounts of 100 to 200 mm, but closer to the path of Fiona, more than 200 mm is likely. Some districts have received large quantities of rain recently, and excessive runoff may exacerbate the flooding potential.

c. Surge/Waves.

There will also be some rough and pounding surf, especially for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Large waves will reach the eastern shore of Nova Scotia Friday night and build to more than 10 metres. These waves will likely reach southern Newfoundland by Saturday morning. Some of the waves over eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence could be higher than 7 metres. Waves will break higher along some of the coastlines, and dangerous rip currents are likely. Storm surge will also be a threat, for parts of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, including Northumberland Strait, Gulf of St. Lawrence region including Iles-de-la-Madeleine, and southwest Newfoundland, but it is too early to provide details on which portions of the coastline may be affected the most.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Hurricane force southeasterlies should spread into Scotian Slope waters Friday evening, these hurricane force southeasterlies will persist near and south of the track. As the storm moves into the Maritimes, storm to hurricane force northwesterlies will likely develop behind it. Waves in excess of 12 metres should form south and east of the hurricane track, beginning Friday night. These large waves will likely reach the south coast of Newfoundland early Saturday, and parts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence later Saturday.

Forecaster(s): Clements/Couturier.

 

Quote

FXCN31 CWHX 211800
Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 3.10 PM ADT
Wednesday 21 September 2022.

The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 3.00 PM ADT, hurricane Fiona was located near latitude 25.1 N and
longitude 71.7 W, about 571 nautical miles or 1058 km southwest of
Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 115 knots (213
km/h) and central pressure at 937 MB. Fiona is moving north at 7
knots (13 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind
          ADT                    MB  kts  kmh
Sep 21  3.00 PM  25.1N  71.7W   937  115  213
Sep 22  3.00 AM  27.2N  71.0W   936  120  222
Sep 22  3.00 PM  29.7N  69.7W   936  120  222
Sep 23  3.00 AM  32.4N  67.4W   936  120  222
Sep 23  3.00 PM  36.9N  64.1W   937  115  213
Sep 24  3.00 AM  43.3N  61.2W   936  100  185
Sep 24  3.00 PM  46.9N  60.4W   935   70  130 post-tropical
Sep 25  3.00 AM  50.0N  60.1W   942   60  111 post-tropical
Sep 25  3.00 PM  53.0N  59.8W   952   45   83 post-tropical
Sep 26  3.00 AM  56.0N  59.4W   963   40   74 post-tropical


3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Fiona, a category 4 hurricane, is continuing northward. The once well
defined eye has been filling with cloud on satellite over the last
few hours. Vigorous convection is continuing to wrap around the
centre, with satellite derived cloud top temperatures nearing - 80c
in the northwestern quadrant. An area of convection well to the
northeast of the centre is also evident on satellite at this time.
Maximum sustained winds are held at 115 kts, and the central pressure
is estimated at 937 MB.  The motion is northward at 7 knots.

B. Prognostic

The environment will likely support slight intensification in the
next day or so, as the hurricane travels in a moist environment over
very warm waters under light to moderate wind shear. Beyond 18 hours,
the model consensus begins to accelerate as an upper trough
approaches from the west, bringing the hurricane near Sable Island
Friday night as it undergoes extra-tropical transition. Then
post-tropical storm Fiona is expected to make landfall over Cape
Breton Island Saturday morning while maintaining sustained hurricane
force winds.  The forecast track has been shifted slighty westward
with this update, to reflect the tight clustering of guidance
ensemble members over Northern Cape Breton. The cumulative qpf field
from the rdps/gdps suite is indicating a pre-cursor rainfall event
well ahead of the centre beginning as early as Friday morning or
afternoon. Rainfall totals suggested by the main models is showing
more than 200 mm north and northwest of the track.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane
         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW
21/18Z  145 140  90 125    75  65  45  60    40  35  25  35
22/06Z  160 160 110 135    80  80  55  65    45  45  35  40
22/18Z  180 185 130 145    90  90  65  75    50  50  35  50
23/06Z  200 205 155 155   100 100  80  80    55  50  30  45
23/18Z  215 225 195 180   110 115  95  90    65  50  15  35
24/06Z  395 430 360 350   260 250 210 220   140 130  95 110
24/18Z  370 370 380 320   130 160 150 180    65  60   0  20
25/06Z  360 300 300 250    70  90  30   0     0   0   0   0
25/18Z  120 160 115 160     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0
26/06Z   20 100  20 100     0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0


END/COUTURIER/CLEMENTS

 

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Not sure Fiona will hit 140mph. Think max may have been reached. Not looking as great on satellite. 

Perhaps an EWRC. Not exactly a classic structure either way, although still obviously a solid core

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like the eye collapsed (or at least became cloud-filled), then just re-opened again.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

EWRC/internal processes still on-going but it looks like it’s about to complete. Cloud tops cooling again, ring of deep convection rapidly going up and wrapping around the eye. Eye is actually shrinking which is a classic sign we are about to get another RI process soon. Also, as Fiona is pulling away from the Islands shear is starting to abate and the W and S quads are starting to improve structurally

[NorthHillsWx]

Yea in recent images Fiona looks much more symmetric and the eye has warmed and cleared out again. Beautiful storm 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yea in recent images Fiona looks much more symmetric and the eye has warmed and cleared out again. Beautiful storm 

One thing I’m noticing is not only the reduction of the eye but how outflow is substantial now in all 4 quads. It’s noticeable on satellite that as Fiona gains latitude the shear abates the W and S quads. The rapid improvement overall in the last few frames is remarkable, as in how quick it’s happening. The small eye is leading me to think we get an RI process soon.

[Radtechwxman]

Satellite presentation has improved again. She's definitely trying 

[Prismshine Productions]

NOAA 3 is inbound, I got a feeling they are about to be taken for a ride...

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[WxSynopsisDavid]

3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

NOAA 3 is inbound, I got a feeling they are about to be taken for a ride...

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I am a gambling man, so I venture to say given the latest satellite presentations that pressure has dropped again but winds likely haven’t caught up. Either way it’s going to be interesting to see what they find

[Prismshine Productions]

Holy hot tower Batman...

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[Stormlover74]

[Windspeed]

I think forward motion to the north is gaining just enough to finally ease the 300 mb flow, though it had already eased on the core somewhat the past 24 hrs, which allowed Fiona to become a Cat 4. There are some strong outer banding features, so cannot rule out multiple ERCs during the next few days, but Fiona may not have peaked yet if a stable eye can take advantage of the ever improving upper environment.

[Windspeed]

[canderson]

3 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

Gonna suck for my cottage in PEI, hopefully it’s does not flood, faces the north beaches.


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That is God’s country up there. Jealous (you rent out via AirBNB by chance, nkt during hurricane weather of course ha). Hope all is ok for you. 

[Newman]

3 hours ago, Hazey said:

I feel bad for the Sable Island ponies. I know they are a hardy breed and have handled storms before but i'm not sure what nearly 200kph will do to a sand bar with no real shelter. 

For those that haven't been or seen pictures of Sable Island...

 

This was a picture I took there this summer atop the West Light lighthouse. The island is only 1 mile wide at the largest point, 26 miles long. That white house below is where I stayed for the summer, it was only a 2 minute walk to the north side beach, and maybe a 5 minute walk to the south side beach. I bring this up to mention the true lack of anything there. I can't imagine what surge is going to look like

[jrips27]

Badass

 

[Newman]

Sable Island is at the max like 30 feet tall. Cut those 50 foot waves south of the island to like 25 feet and it's still tragic. 

 

[cptcatz]

Recon recorded 119 knots in the SE eyewall and 933 mb. NE eyewall pass should be good. 

[Windspeed]

Recon found pressures have fallen to around 933'ish but the winds have not increased. In fact they have dropped. This may be due to new strengthening eyewall convection but perhaps the vortex has not yet spun up to respond to the pressure falls.

[Prismshine Productions]

Eye looks to have collapsed again...

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[Windspeed]

Eye looks to have collapsed again...

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That may be cloud debris from the old eyewall left by the earlier ERC or partial cycle rotating around.

[hlcater]

48 minutes ago, Newman said:

Sable Island is at the max like 30 feet tall. Cut those 50 foot waves south of the island to like 25 feet and it's still tragic. 

 

50ft waves will break offshore and be much less impressive. The surge is almost certain to inundate a good portion of the island though 

[Prismshine Productions]

Rather impressive for that big of an open eyewall

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[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Not every day you see a strong Cat 4 with an open eyewall lol

[Windspeed]

Yeah I am pretty certain that is old wall cloud debris slowly dissipating. Fiona is looking pretty sexy right now. Wonder what peak will end up being. I'm going to say 145 mph sustained sometime during the day tomorrow, though certainly it could get there tonight.