WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Also, I believe this is the first recorded case of a major hurricane making landfall on grand turk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don't really think they jumped. The explanation in the 5am disco was compelling to me. It does look borderline now though. SFMR winds are known to overestimate intensity in shallow water and those highest values were noted in some of the reefs approaching grand Turk. There have been multiple flights into the storm since it was designated a major and just now did they find FL winds to 100kts. I doubt surface winds are 100kts if they cannot find FL winds to that magnitude. Don’t know of another major where we had recon and it was kept a major without FL winds over 100kts. Just my $0.02 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Latest track takes Fiona to Cape Breton Island as a 100 mph Cat 2. Have there been any other Cat 2 landfalls in Canada other than Juan in 2003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: SFMR winds are known to overestimate intensity in shallow water and those highest values were noted in some of the reefs approaching grand Turk. There have been multiple flights into the storm since it was designated a major and just now did they find FL winds to 100kts. I doubt surface winds are 100kts if they cannot find FL winds to that magnitude. Don’t know of another major where we had recon and it was kept a major without FL winds over 100kts. Just my $0.02 I would have to agree. This is not a major hurricane right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Wow gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow gfs If you love meteorology you should be interested in this even if it doesn't affect you. This should be quite a site. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 I was apart of a research group on Sable Island this summer, so it holds a very special place in my heart. If you don't know where Sable Island is, it's that small crescent Island south of Nova Scotia about 200 miles off the coast. I can't imagine what the scene will be on that island this coming Saturday. They've seen quite their fair share of storms, but this will be truly special. If I had to place a Webcam anywhere, it would be there. The surge could be unheard of. Wind is less of an issue due to minimal infrastructure and blowing of debris. But I am super interested to see how this plays out for Sable and mainland Nova Scotia 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow gfs In the past I have seen people suggest that super low pressures on the models could be an indication of a large storm. Nobody really expects a 928 mb storm up there, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: In the past I have seen people suggest that super low pressures on the models could be an indication of a large storm. Nobody really expects a 928 mb storm up there, right? Sell the verbatim pressure, for sure. Regardless of that fact, models are showing a large, powerful storm undergoing ET transition as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Newman said: I was apart of a research group on Sable Island this summer, so it holds a very special place in my heart. If you don't know where Sable Island is, it's that small crescent Island south of Nova Scotia about 200 miles off the coast. I can't imagine what the scene will be on that island this coming Saturday. They've seen quite their fair share of storms, but this will be truly special. If I had to place a Webcam anywhere, it would be there. The surge could be unheard of. Wind is less of an issue due to minimal infrastructure and blowing of debris. But I am super interested to see how this plays out for Sable and mainland Nova Scotia Thanks for sharing, I was just researching the island this morning, noticed the speck on the NHC map. There actually is a webcam on the island: https://www.windy.com/en/-Webcams/Canada/Nova Scotia/Sable Island/Sable Island Station/webcams/1408056380?43.930,-59.985,5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 50 minutes ago, Hoosier said: In the past I have seen people suggest that super low pressures on the models could be an indication of a large storm. Nobody really expects a 928 mb storm up there, right? Yeah I’m thinking it’s probably in the 940-50mb range which is already big time. It is extraordinary to see the ensemble members of the EPS be so deep though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: In the past I have seen people suggest that super low pressures on the models could be an indication of a large storm. Nobody really expects a 928 mb storm up there, right? Sandy was 940 or so, but the core of the hurricane was gone as it transitioned to Extra tropical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Exceptionally powerful look on both the Euro and GFS. 12z Euro. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah I’m thinking it’s probably in the 940-50mb range which is already big time. It is extraordinary to see the ensemble members of the EPS be so deep though. Expected pressure at landfall: 12z Euro is at 932mb 12z GFS is at 928mb 12z CMC is at 942mb These are all at 96 hours with the storm at Nova Scotia/ Cape Breton Island. Euro first saw this possibility early Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 I believe @OSUmetstud is in NF? Or nearby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Going to be one of the wildest ET transitions to witness. Hopefully it bombs during the daytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 It appears the eyewall replacement cycle is progressing well. The new band is beginning to pop on the IR loop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Plugging in the GFS wind field into the IKE calculator yields some gnarly looking values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 I wonder what kind of surge potential there is with this track. The guidance is pretty tightly clustered right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Fiona starting to look sexy again on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 This map is blowing my mind. I get the extreme high latitude in association with the Gulf Stream current for catagorical cyclone intensity potential. But the upper portion of the map seems impossible, as though those SSTs are running above normal, they're still very cold and way below the threshold to support a tropical surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Looking forward to the eyecandy over the next two days. Fiona is about to get WILD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 2 hours ago, yoda said: I believe @OSUmetstud is in NF? Or nearby... St Johns I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 48 minutes ago, Dan76 said: St Johns I believe Yes I'm too far for significant impacts from the looks of things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yes I'm too far for significant impacts from the looks of things What are you thinking with regard to impacts further west? How unusual is it to see a S to N track? I imagine that has surge implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 The new recon plane is finally finding solid cat 3 strength... 117 kts flight level, 102 SFMR, extrap pressure 949 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The new recon plane is finally finding solid cat 3 strength... 117 kts flight level, 102 SFMR, extrap pressure 949 mb. Yep. This is what it was missing this morning. I think they jumped the gun but it’s clear it was on the way so it doesn’t really matter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 953 mb, officially, per the latest dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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