Major Hurricane Fiona

[EdutateGA]

Flying over a hurricane in a properly equipped commercial aircraft and with ATC guidance (in addition to meteorologists) is not common but also not “ill-advised”. Can promise that the route was very well-advised on by professionals that do this on a daily basis (ie.: any type of weather potentially poses flight hazards).

Case in point: look at Delta 431 that outraced Irma as it hit PR. That was legit a masterclass in routing around weather (and getting an aircraft quickly turned around for departure).


.

[Whineminster]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Very close to our first major of the season. Very impressive period of intensification today.

Hopefully coming our way, keep up hope!

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

Hopefully coming our way, keep up hope!

This looks legit for Atlantic Canada. 

[MattPetrulli]

Satellite appearance, specifically the eye,  has degraded somewhat since earlier with a contracting eye, but could be due to towers maybe? Maybe EWRC but not much evidence of a secondary eyewall. Recon about to pass through so we'll see if it's steady or intensifying still. 

[Windspeed]

Satellite appearance, specifically the eye,  has degraded somewhat since earlier with a contracting eye, but could be due to towers maybe? Maybe EWRC but not much evidence of a secondary eyewall. Recon about to pass through so we'll see if it's steady or intensifying still. 

Hot towers are firing against the 300 mb flow. It's a light shear essentially, so mid-level cloud debris is sinking into the eye. The positive ventilation to the north is outpacing the negative counter vector flow from the southwest. I'd call this favorable for a strengthening major hurricane, but perhaps not a perfect envelope until the hurricane turns more northerly. All in all, a period of RI tonight or in the morning remains quite possible.

[Windspeed]

Hot towers are firing against the 300 mb flow. It's a light shear essentially, so mid-level cloud debris is sinking into the eye. The positive ventilation to the north is outpacing the negative counter vector flow from the southwest. I'd call this favorable for a strengthening major hurricane, but perhaps not a perfect envelope until the hurricane turns more northerly. All in all, a period of RI tonight or in the morning remains quite possible.

This is actually easier to see via AVN as you can better make out the -80C/coldest tops. Notice all the GLM lightning detections with each convective burst/tower going up around the northern eyewall to reach highest altitude in the western to southwestern semicircle. These towers are rotating into the 300 mb flow and some of the canopy is overshooting the eye. That being said, the intense convection is likely dropping pressure and increasing the gradient. Fiona is intensifying.

[WxWatcher007]

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 2:09Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Name: Fiona
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 1:31:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.42N 70.41W
B. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the SSE (147°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,856m (9,370ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Open in the south
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNE (20°) of center fix at 1:28:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 89° at 86kts (From the E at 99.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the N (9°) of center fix at 1:27:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 71kts (81.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 1:35:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 223° at 69kts (From the SW at 79.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 1:35:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (84°) from the flight level center at 23:37:30Z

[WxSynopsisDavid]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 2:09Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Name: Fiona
Storm Number & Year: 07 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 1:31:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.42N 70.41W
B. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the SSE (147°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,856m (9,370ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Open in the south
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNE (20°) of center fix at 1:28:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 89° at 86kts (From the E at 99.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the N (9°) of center fix at 1:27:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 71kts (81.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 1:35:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 223° at 69kts (From the SW at 79.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 1:35:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (84°) from the flight level center at 23:37:30Z

Very close, right on the cusp of being the first major cane of the year. Still looks like pressure is lagging behind though. Winds came up to 110mph but the pressure still at 972mb. This thing is about to bomb when the pressure catches up, by sunrise we should be seeing a rapid intensification phase underway.

[WxWatcher007]

Recon coming around for a NE to SW pass so we're going to find out shortly whether it's done enough to attain major status. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Recon coming around for a NE to SW pass so we're going to find out shortly whether it's done enough to attain major status. 

On paper....it looks like it has. Satellite appearance is appreciable, looks like the CDO is healthy. The vertical column looks shrouded and protected, don't see where there is any significant hinderance. No dry air entrainment and shear is very minimal. Outflow healthy in all 4 quads of the storm. The rapid cooling of the cloud tops, increased vortical towers going up along the eyewall, and mainly the presence of lightning in the eye tell me this thing is not only intensifying but about to start an RI process. It's a waiting game when recon finds that pressure has caught up. If they haven't found it yet I venture to say we are very close to that happening.

[WxWatcher007]

110mph/971mb at 11pm

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved 
significantly this evening.  The eye has warmed and become more 
distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and 
is more symmetric.  More recently, the eye has become smaller in 
size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm 
this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to 
around 10 n mi in diameter.  The NOAA plane has measured a peak 
flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force 
aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt.  
Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data 
support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. 

The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly
shear of the storm.  Although this shear is not forecast to abate
much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist
atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the
next 24 to 48 hours.  Given the recent improvement in structure,
the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate
of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the
upper end of the intensity guidance.  The official forecast shows
Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the
hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so.  Eyewall replacement
cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the
24-72 h time period.  By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to
interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start
the system's extratropical transition.  The process is forecast to 
be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to 
remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5. 

The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast 
philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast 
cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving 
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours,  
Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a 
strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The 
track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance 
envelope. 

Key Messages:

1.  Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico 
and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. 
These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening 
and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides 
across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is 
likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with
tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning
late tonight or early Tuesday.

3.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 20.6N  70.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 21.8N  71.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 23.3N  71.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 24.6N  71.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 26.3N  71.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 28.5N  69.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 31.1N  68.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 39.8N  60.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 49.7N  58.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[WxWatcher007]

Not there yet in the NE quadrant. 

[MattPetrulli]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

110mph/971mb at 11pm

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved 
significantly this evening.  The eye has warmed and become more 
distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and 
is more symmetric.  More recently, the eye has become smaller in 
size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm 
this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to 
around 10 n mi in diameter.  The NOAA plane has measured a peak 
flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force 
aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt.  
Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data 
support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. 

The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly
shear of the storm.  Although this shear is not forecast to abate
much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist
atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the
next 24 to 48 hours.  Given the recent improvement in structure,
the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate
of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the
upper end of the intensity guidance.  The official forecast shows
Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the
hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so.  Eyewall replacement
cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the
24-72 h time period.  By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to
interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start
the system's extratropical transition.  The process is forecast to 
be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to 
remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5. 

The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast 
philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast 
cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving 
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours,  
Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a 
strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The 
track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance 
envelope. 

Key Messages:

1.  Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico 
and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. 
These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening 
and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides 
across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is 
likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with
tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning
late tonight or early Tuesday.

3.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 20.6N  70.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 21.8N  71.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 23.3N  71.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 24.6N  71.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 26.3N  71.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 28.5N  69.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 31.1N  68.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 39.8N  60.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 49.7N  58.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

That's gonna produce a LOT of ACE.

[hawkeye_wx]

967 mb per the latest dropsonde.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

967 mb per the latest dropsonde.

4mb drop since 11pm and its not even midnight yet. Appears the pressure has finally caught up to the winds. Bombs Away!!!!!

[thunderbolt]

9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

4mb drop since 11pm and its not even midnight yet. Appears the pressure has finally caught up to the winds. Bombs Away!!!!!

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0088838/mediaviewer/rm479957504/?ref_=tt_ov_i

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0088838/mediaviewer/rm479957504/?ref_=tt_ov_i

"A wild, wacky, comedy adventure". That accurately describes Fiona lol

[Floydbuster]

Fiona is now the first major hurricane of the season.

[dan11295]

Been looking that at model runs and they have been trending gradually to the left with Fiona. Better for Bermuda, But increases impacts to Canada, 

[Modfan2]

27 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Been looking that at model runs and they have been trending gradually to the left with Fiona. Better for Bermuda, But increases impacts to Canada, 

Wondering how far west this comes; initially heading into NF now Nova Scotia, is Downeast Maine in play?

[olafminesaw]

A bit lopsided on microwave and ragged on satellite this morning. Seems like it keeps trying to do an EWRC, but is slow to do so

[olafminesaw]

940 mb is the Canadian LP record

[eyewall]

Grand Turk had sustained winds at least up to 93 mph. Gusts over 100.

[Windspeed]

Pressure continues to fall but Fiona's slow forward motion is allowing the 300 mb flow to impede it somewhat keeping it in check. The double wind maxima is perhaps telling that it won't resolve these structural issues until it gains faster northerly forward motion, which should allow it to take off intensity wise.

[eyewall]

Looks like I found a gust to 121 mph for Grand Turk.

[NorthHillsWx]

Did this pass directly over grand Turk? Seems like that was unexpected per track from yesterday. Definitely leaning left. Good for Bermuda, not great for Atlantic Canada 

[NorthHillsWx]

Also- per recon I have yet to see anything that confirms this as a major hurricane either yesterday or today. They may have jumped the gun a bit on that classification using satellite estimates. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Also- per recon I have yet to see anything that confirms this as a major hurricane either yesterday or today. They may have jumped the gun a bit on that classification using satellite estimates. 

Not necessarily... A lot more people pay attention to the word "Major" slapped in front the title, could have jumped it for people in Turks and Caicos to get to shelter

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[olafminesaw]

The NHC's five day forecast up to this point was near perfect for track 

[WxWatcher007]

I don't really think they jumped. The explanation in the 5am disco was compelling to me. It does look borderline now though. 

Quote

A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
reported that the central pressure of Fiona had dropped to 967 mb, 
and that the 700-mb flight-level winds were near 95 kt.  In 
addition, the aircraft also reported surface winds estimates from 
the SFMR of 100-105 kt.  The various satellite intensity estimates 
are in the 100-115 kt range, and based on these data the initial 
intensity was increased to 100 kt.  This makes Fiona the first major 
hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.  It should be noted 
that since the aircraft left the storm, the eye has become less 
distinct in satellite imagery.  NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Fiona before 12Z to 
see how much, if any, additional strengthening has occurred.