NorthHillsWx Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Per Twitter, sounds like Josh nailed this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Per Twitter, sounds like Josh nailed this one. It looked very close last night, but he nailed the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Per Twitter, sounds like Josh nailed this one. Good, because he was getting desperate. I'm sure he wasn't expecting the first chaseworthy threat in any accessible basin (apparently he still can't go to Japan for the recent typhoons because of their COVID travel restrictions, which is weird because a local metal band I'm a fan of recently announced they're planning a tour of Japan for December) this season to come after September 15th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Not so good for Bermuda. A rough Thursday night. 175km *0.62 = 110mph wind before gusts. Rain would be 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 For those of you with Facebook, the CoCoRAHS Facebook group has folks from Puerto Rico reporting 15"+ of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: For those of you with Facebook, the CoCoRAHS Facebook group has folks from Puerto Rico reporting 15"+ of rainfall. Three day totals up to 20" near Ponce. Large data void over mid part of the island where in theory some of the heaviest rainfall would have been enhanced by orographic lift but map does show how heavy some totals have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Three day totals up to 20" near Ponce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Looking at the NWS Data & Hazards Viewer. 6 Collection stations have 2-day totals of 20"+. Three are over 24". Heavy rains are continuing in these areas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 It looks like the eye will be out over the Atlantic in the next few hours based on Fiona's current heading on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 19, 2022 Author Share Posted September 19, 2022 3 hours ago, jbenedet said: Fiona having significant land interaction with Hispaniola—something that all major guidance missed 24 hrs ago. The impending dissipation now means higher than usual short term uncertainty on track. Just the proximity of the 6,000 ft + mountains over central Hispaniola will do much to disrupt the mesoscale vectors funneling into Fiona’s surface circulation over next 6-10 hrs. Bold forecast to have this as a hurricane in 12 hrs. I think 75/25 we see downgrade to TS before re-emerging. This has hardly weakened to this point and the center is going to be over water soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Biggest concern after Fiona re-emerges is going to be Bermuda (core still looks to stay east of the Turks & Caicos). Fortunately, Bermuda has strong building codes, but if they get the eastern eye wall of a strong Cat 3 there will still be significant damage. Btw, they have never been hit directly by a Cat 4 and due to heat content limitations it would probably take close to a perfect atmospheric setup for that to happen.Agreed. You would want to see a cat 5 moving up to really get a 4 there. Luckily for them it’s a wealthy island with some of the best infrastructure in the world. Even wave and surge wise they are protected by offshore reefs. Great place to case a cane. Either way this is a prolific wave producer for the east coast so if anyone is coastal check out the waves later in the week. You will thank me. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Looks like deep convection is firing and trying to wrap around the eye again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like deep convection is firing and trying to wrap around the eye again. eye is trying to clear on the vis as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 1 hour ago, GaWx said: This has hardly weakened to this point and the center is going to be over water soon. Held up really well. Sped up and made the right turn fast. Watch out Bermuda... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Held up really well. Sped up and made the right turn fast. Watch out Bermuda... I think Newfoundland is more at risk. Bermuda is very well prepared for even a major. Also the trough phasing on some of these models really explodes Fiona (930s) as it hits SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 As others have pointed out, Bermuda is not really a “traditional tropical island”… heck, their new airport is nicer than any in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Looks ready to take off now that’s it’s over water again RI looks like real possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: Looks ready to take off now that’s it’s over water again RI looks like real possibility Held up extremely well with passage over PR and extreme eastern DR. Satellite VIS and IR very impressive and shows a system that continues to develop. Little doubt this reaches Cat 3. Interesting thing is Danielle, Earl and Fiona all will have reached their peak intensity outside of the deep tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 GLM activity is already way up in the eyewall of Fiona. Recon should be pretty interesting later on today as the storm tries to rebuild a tight core with a pretty darn impressive UL environment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 90mph/975mb at 2pm with a rapidly improving satellite appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Eye really trying to make an appearance on visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 I thought there would be some lag time post exit of landmass for reintensification. Perhaps atleast 6-10 hours of ocean time. I mean this was a trek over the DR, even if the core remained over the lowlands. But I was considering the mountainous terrain impeding some of its low-level inflow into the core. Uhhh... that appears to be a big negatory, slappy. Fiona looks like it is about to experience some explosive deepening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 28 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: GLM activity is already way up in the eyewall of Fiona. Recon should be pretty interesting later on today as the storm tries to rebuild a tight core with a pretty darn impressive UL environment. That high level outflow / anticyclone is very impressive look. Fiona is gonna "go" once she fully clears land. Upper level outflow almost has that classic "atmospheric sink" look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: I thought there would be some lag time post exit of landmass for reintensification. Perhaps atleast 6-10 hours of ocean time. I mean this was a trek over the DR, even if the core remained over the lowlands. But I was considering the mountainous terrain impeding some of its low-level inflow into the core. Uhhh... that appears to be a big negatory, slappy. Fiona looks like it is about to experience some explosive deepening. Fiona being in a very good upper air environment has certainly helped in maintaining intensity. Also I think the core stayed just far enough away from the higher mountains in the central portion of Hispaniola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Definitely keeping an eye on it from the maritimes. Sone of the model depictions are nasty up this way. Think Cape Breton NS and Newfoundland are most at risk for anything substantial atm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 That was almost 8 hrs over land without taking much of an intensity hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Yeah it emerged practically unscathed and ready to blow. I thought there would be a bigger hiccup in intensity. An ominous look to it this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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