Major Hurricane Fiona

[weatherCCB]

Time to update the title of this thread, 

[weatherCCB]

Sorry , my bad. Didn’t see it.

[Snowlover11]

PR 100% no power

[Floydbuster]

Here we go. It's amazing how fast even a Cat 1 storm can knock the power out.

[Amped]

Was actually expecting to see Josh here.

[Floydbuster]

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Was actually expecting to see Josh here.

He went to Punta Cana. 

[Stormfly]

46 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

PR 100% no power

Isn't that a planned cut to reduce damage from faults?  No way those gusts are bringing down lattice transmission towers or monopoles.  Those are spec'd to 145 mph in that region and were rebuilt in 2018.

[Superstorm93]

COAMPS still shows this absolutely exploding once it gets more of a favorable jet interaction 

 

 

[Floydbuster]

 

[Amped]

17 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

He went to Punta Cana. 

Guess it's a matter of taste, some like the exact center, some like the right front quad eyewall.  Based on this, I'd put Ponce on the exceeded cat1 expectations list.

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Here we go. It's amazing how fast even a Cat 1 storm can knock the power out.

I was in Central PA when Irene hit as a cat 1 and I still lost power despite it just being tropical storm force winds lol. People really underestimate lower end storms

[WxWatcher007]

Hurricane Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
335 PM AST Sun Sep 18 2022

...FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...

NWS Doppler radar observations indicate that the center of 
Hurricane Fiona has made landfall along the extreme southwestern 
coast of Puerto Rico near Punta Tocon at 320 PM AST...1920 UTC.  
Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 85 mph 
(140 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 320 PM AST...1920 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 67.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF MAYAGUEZ PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

 

[WxWatcher007]

You look at that radar and IR and you just know there’s going to be catastrophic flooding in PR. Already seeing high end river flood reports. 

[NorthHillsWx]

18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You look at that radar and IR and you just know there’s going to be catastrophic flooding in PR. Already seeing high end river flood reports. 

Sickening radar returns across PR. This is going to be a devastating flooding impact there. Several gust reports over 100 mph, definitely a feisty storm. Will be interesting seeing if Josh can get the eye in DR

[smokeybandit]

 

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Sickening radar returns across PR. This is going to be a devastating flooding impact there. Several gust reports over 100 mph, definitely a feisty storm. Will be interesting seeing if Josh can get the eye in DR

Yeah, looking bad with much more rain to come from the looks of the latest radar.  Bad situation.

[Normandy]

The turnaround this thing has done from entering the Caribbean as a naked swirl is astounding.  I never thought it would get its act together like this.

 

[MANDA]

Storm chaser Brett Adair posted video (see link) from just west of Ponce.  Looks every bit and then some like a Cat 1.  Impressive flying debris.

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1571567670163607552

 

[MattPetrulli]

Another thing of note, almost every model absolutely bombs this in the next few days. It should make a really close approach to Bermuda Thursday as a large, major hurricane. 

[Stormfly]

51 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I was in Central PA when Irene hit as a cat 1 and I still lost power despite it just being tropical storm force winds lol. People really underestimate lower end storms

Cannot really compare the two, PR is reporting their entire grid failed.
Localized outages happen all the time from TS force winds up here from deciduous tree falls.  Trimming in the right away prevents nuisance outages but once gusts get into the 50s and 60 larger limbs and uproots become more widespread resulting in your typical distribution fault type outages affecting 10s of thousands of customers at a time.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Another thing of note, almost every model absolutely bombs this in the next few days. It should make a really close approach to Bermuda Thursday as a large, major hurricane. 

Atlantic Canada will need to watch this too as the guidance tries edging this more northward as it interacts with the midweek trough. 

[MANDA]

Wind gust swath on Euro is bad enough but at least max stays west of Bermuda.  GFS not so much - shows RFQ potentially directly impacting Bermuda.  Going to be a close call.  My bets are on a closer approach than the EURO shows.

[Superstorm93]

Might be breaking some records here soon. 

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Might be breaking some records here soon. 

Not even close to rain ending either. HMON and HWRF bring bands into PR through midday tomorrow. Something tells me we may not see the name Fiona after this season.

[Superstorm93]

Recon taking off soon. Won't be able to get the entire RMW, but should be able to hit the center 

[Superstorm93]

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Recon taking off soon. Won't be able to get the entire RMW, but should be able to hit the center 

It looks like interaction with PR didn’t slow down organization much at all. I hope the DR is ready for this one. 

[Windspeed]

It looks like interaction with PR didn’t slow down organization much at all. I hope the DR is ready for this one. 

Unfortunately the slow and steady angle of approach is pretty much a worst case scenario from a flooding perspective. The core has only clipped the higher terrain, it is not weakening. But it's driving the southerly feed of moisture off the Carribean right over the island, with orographic enhancement. Maria was horrible and I don't want to say Fiona will eclipse that in impacts. But it may outperform even Georges from a flooding event. This is looking really bad.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It looks like interaction with PR didn’t slow down organization much at all. I hope the DR is ready for this one. 

Unfortunately the slow and steady angle of approach is pretty much a worst case scenario from a flooding perspective. The core has only clipped the higher terrain, it is not weakening. But it's driving the southerly feed of moisture off the Carribean right over the island, with orographic enhancement. Maria was horrible and I don't want to say Fiona will eclipse that in impacts. But it may outperform even Georges from a flooding event. This is looking really bad.

Yeah, this is about the worst case rainfall scenario for PR. The videos coming out are already really bad. 

[Normandy]

Extreme and devastating rain event on-going in Puerto Rico unfortunately.  Radar showing a WSW dive with the eye motion...perhaps the start of the turn more WNW to NW.