Chinook Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 I always wanted to use the Caribbean composite radar in a situation like this (1515z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Looks like the latest NHC cone has moved east by around 100 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 52 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: Looks like the latest NHC cone has moved east by around 100 miles or so. Clearly a fish except for a Bermuda hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 17, 2022 Author Share Posted September 17, 2022 12Z UKMET goes NW over far E PR and then moves WNW for short time followed by NW...so quite a shift E from prior run at PR! MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 17.09.2022 TROPICAL STORM FIONA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 63.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 17.09.2022 0 16.3N 63.6W 1005 35 0000UTC 18.09.2022 12 17.2N 64.9W 1003 33 1200UTC 18.09.2022 24 18.4N 65.8W 1001 44 0000UTC 19.09.2022 36 19.0N 67.7W 999 45 1200UTC 19.09.2022 48 20.0N 68.6W 999 46 0000UTC 20.09.2022 60 21.4N 69.9W 996 53 1200UTC 20.09.2022 72 22.4N 70.5W 995 51 0000UTC 21.09.2022 84 23.9N 70.5W 987 57 1200UTC 21.09.2022 96 25.8N 70.0W 978 54 0000UTC 22.09.2022 108 27.8N 69.3W 969 63 1200UTC 22.09.2022 120 30.6N 68.6W 961 73 0000UTC 23.09.2022 132 33.9N 66.5W 953 84 1200UTC 23.09.2022 144 38.7N 61.4W 942 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Chinook said: I always wanted to use the Caribbean composite radar in a situation like this (1515z) It's in range of PR now. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA2/loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Amped said: It's in range of PR now. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA2/loop.html Structure continues to improve. This is going to pass over western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. Thinking very little or no passage over DR. Maybe center skirts the NE coast of DR. Certainly all the morning guidance is unanimous with fishing trip. Window for east coast threat has closed. Incoming mid week trof is just too strong. Fiona is going out. Seems as though any chance of U.S. landfall this season is going to have to come from Caribbean. Pattern just not going to allow for anything moving westward over the Atlantic to come close. Still not giving up on something from the Caribbean moving northward into the GOM or up nearer the east coast as we go into October. I think September chances are about done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Is that an eye-like feature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Upper divergence has improved significantly over the last 24 hours. It just needs to tighten up the core. Maybe some good convection tonight will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 I think Nova Scotia/Newfoundland are still in play. Won't be purely tropical, but ensembles showing some near hurricane force, and a hybrid system would have a larger windfield. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Pressure is down to 997 mb. We're still waiting for some good convection over the center, but it has tightened up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Disagree that it has tightened up despite the pressure being lower. The below recon pattern shows a highly broad windfield, with many wind maxima far away from the actual center. Not sure this is the structure for deepening. EDIT: Seems per radar and recon fix it has the structure of a broad gyre with a tighter center orbiting around. It could explain some of the strange motion between fixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Sorry for the double post but I saw something that peaked my curiousty and I'd love for a pro met to chime in......in the attached image of FIona what are those super cell / hook echo like convective elements on the SW side of the convective envelope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 18, 2022 Author Share Posted September 18, 2022 The 18Z EPS 144 has fewer left outliers vs the 12Z EPS 150. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Recon finding a somewhat disorganized system with wind max away from the center. This is probably due to dry air entrainment into the center, as evident by the lack of convection in left quadrant. Still a 50-55 knot tropical storm, but needs to organize more for quicker intensification. That being said, appears on radar that organization is becoming more apparent with center increasingly becoming more defined. This could possibly be because of proximity to radar being better, but also because of DMAX. DMAX should help Fiona a bit more and could push it towards more of a 60-65 knot system overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 18Z EPS 144 has fewer left outliers vs the 12Z EPS 150. I guess it's over for a U.S hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Don’t know why RadarScope comes up so blurry here, but definitely some significant tightening of the center despite the appearance on IR in the last few hours. No response by the winds yet. It still needs to wrap around fully and consistently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Not good for DR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 11:30pm Video Update on Tropical Storm Fiona for those interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Pressure is down to 993 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Definitely a strengthening storm, 994 last pass with 55-60 knots in NE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 track takes this just NE of Punta Cana now. Pretty significant jump west since 5pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Starting to see a few lightning signatures on radar with a ribbon of higher velocities on the northern side as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 This storm reminds me a lot of Hurricane Hortense in September 1996. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Not good for DR They could handle a strong TS/weak hurricane. My family is from Puerto Plata and they pretty much prepared 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 70mph/991mb at 8am. Recon showing a gradually organizing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Per recon this is just a tick below a hurricane. Slowly but surely organizing a core. Good convective burst over the center right now. Looks like some mid level dry air is the biggest hindrance at the moment as, based on cloud pattern, shear has decreased. Still not an ideal shear environment by any means but not enough to stop this from slowly strengthening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Now that Fiona is a done deal as far as a U.S. hit I think we can close the lid on a miserable CV season. Any potential threats to the U.S. are going to have to come from a system lifting north out of the Caribbean / Gulf at this point. Not giving up on that chance just yet. Fiona has organized significantly over the last 24 hours and seems destined to reach hurricane status and maybe major hurricane status as it exits into the SW Atlantic over the next couple of days and heads out in general direction of Bermuda. This season is going to bust hard for anyone that was calling for big numbers and land impacts. Very surprising based on what the pattern looked like going into the season. Solid La Nina, SST that were at least normal, if not above in the MDR and some healthy waves emerging off Africa. Shear and dry air just put an end to the MDR season before it began. Even the Caribbean and GOM could not produce. We'll see what happens over the next 4 weeks. After that can't count on much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Real tight with the GEFS. EURO has several members to the west of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Two consecutive 4mb drops the last two passes... Jesh (last one was 984.8)Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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