Major Hurricane Fiona

[MattPetrulli]

38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well damn. Gonna need a title change @GaWx

Finally an overperformer

Tropical Storm Fiona Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072022
945 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened to a 
tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 50 mph (85 
km/h).  This will be incoporated in the next advisory that will be 
released before 11 pm AST (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 945 PM AST...0150 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 52.0W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

Important to note, stronger storm likely more likely to move more north via model guidance. We'll see how that balances out, though. 

[tiger_deF]

This is a pretty beautiful half a storm

[MattPetrulli]

1100 PM AST Wed Sep 14 2022

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 52.0W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Intensity forecast gets it up to 50 knots and keeps it there for remainder of the cycle.

[Floydbuster]

Without that SW shear, this thing could be a hurricane fast. I'm still not buying the poleward movement in 96 hrs, especially not as abrupt as some of the guidance shows. Despite rounding the periphery of a ridge, a sheared tropical storm will always tend to move more west.

[Amped]

The GFS caved to the Navgem.  Has the storm bombing out between PR and Bermuda in fairly strong SW shear.  Probably way overdone.

[GaWx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA      ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N  51.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 15.09.2022    0  16.4N  51.4W     1010            36
    1200UTC 15.09.2022   12  16.4N  53.9W     1009            38
    0000UTC 16.09.2022   24  16.7N  56.2W     1008            37
    1200UTC 16.09.2022   36  17.0N  58.9W     1009            35
    0000UTC 17.09.2022   48  17.5N  61.6W     1008            30
    1200UTC 17.09.2022   60  17.8N  64.0W     1007            31
    0000UTC 18.09.2022   72  18.0N  66.5W     1006            32
    1200UTC 18.09.2022   84  18.6N  67.8W     1004            39
    0000UTC 19.09.2022   96  18.8N  68.6W     1002            43
    1200UTC 19.09.2022  108  19.8N  69.9W      996            53
    0000UTC 20.09.2022  120  20.5N  71.2W      995            53
    1200UTC 20.09.2022  132  21.1N  72.0W      996            51
    0000UTC 21.09.2022  144  22.0N  72.2W      997            45

[Superstorm93]

Still think this struggles on the way to the islands. 

Pretty hefty amount of dry air entrained on the left side of the circulation now. 

 

[MJO812]

Gfs is way west on this run but it's still way out there to take anything seriously. 

0z vs 6z

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Still think this struggles on the way to the islands. 
Pretty hefty amount of dry air entrained on the left side of the circulation now. 
 

I think this has a 50/50 shot at dissipation. It does have peak climo and very warm water though.


.

[Superstorm93]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think this has a 50/50 shot at dissipation. It does have peak climo and very warm water though.


.

 

Might be hard for it to completely dissipate since this looks like a pretty large circulation now. Should struggle for at least another 48 - 72 hours. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Might be hard for it to completely dissipate since this looks like a pretty large circulation now. Should struggle for at least another 48 - 72 hours. 

Agree and you can see both the dry air and shear having an impact on morning visible (time sensitive) 

 

It'll be interesting to see what recon finds and how the sampling of the environment changes the current intensity and track forecasts.  

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is way west on this run but it's still way out there to take anything seriously. 

0z vs 6z

 

 

06z GEFS guidance would likely carry this out to sea after impacting the Greater Antilles, but it's still early to make a lot of judgment calls. I think I'd favor a more close call over a landfall or wide right solution right now but again, early. 

[MANDA]

First visible pictures of the day show the convection is ALMOST entirely east of the center of circulation.  Vortex is ALMOST a naked swirl.  Between the shear and dry air Fiona is going to have a hard battle to hold in a steady state next 2-3 days.  I would expect no additional intensification over the next 48 hours at least.  Intensity will have impact on the track.  Weaker and more sheared system will track more westward and stay nearer or over the islands.  If vortex can maintain itself under the deeper convection then Fiona could intensify some and a more vertically stacked system will tend to get tugged more poleward and track north of PR and DR/Haiti.  I'm leaning SLIGHTLY toward a more north of the islands track.  If system can get to the SW Atlantic with an intact vortex conditions will become more favorable for development down the road.

In the short term though Fiona is going to have to fight hard against shear and dry air.   Hard to believe a storm in this position at the peak of the season is battling this much shear and dry air.  Just goes to show you that conditions that have been present all season so far are still there.  The MDR region and deep tropics are not really favorable for robust development this year.

 

Edit:  Just wanted to add will have to see if this completely decouples today.  It is possible although shear does not seem all that severe.  If it does decouple the future of the system becomes highly uncertain.  As of now I'm thinking not but it is possible.

[Windspeed]

[GaWx]

 The 6Z EPS has 75% of members at or south of the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Odds of a move into the Gulf are increasing imo (assuming it survives).

[WxWatcher007]

I think it still ends up north of the island. Here are the EPS lows by comparison. I’m sure this’ll bounce around.

00z EPS

 

06z EPS

[olafminesaw]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it still ends up north of the island. Here are the EPS lows by comparison. I’m sure this’ll bounce around.

00z EPS

 

06z EPS

Island forcefield, lol

[Superstorm93]

[MANDA]

Latest visible loop since sunrise really shows LLC out racing convection.  Should be interesting disco from TPC at 11am.

If this trend continues today going to be hard for this to survive unless new center somehow can redevelop under the deeper convection.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it still ends up north of the island. Here are the EPS lows by comparison. I’m sure this’ll bounce around.

00z EPS

 

06z EPS

This shows a slight SW trend of the mean track from 0Z to 6Z EPS. I think there will be more SW adjustments eventually though not necessarily consistently from run to run.

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Island forcefield, lol

As @Superstorm93 posts above, the ensembles still take it over the island, so I think that’s a likely outcome. I was just posting the low positions by comparison. I should have been clearer. 

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As @Superstorm93 posts above, the ensembles still take it over the island, so I think that’s a likely outcome. I was just posting the low positions by comparison. I should have been clearer. 

Yeah, his does make it clearer the tracks they end up taking. I just thought it was funny how even though the mean would be over the island, all the individual members appeared to miss in yours

[Superstorm93]

Yikes, HAFS (which will eventually take over for the HWRF) tilts the circulation to all hell. 

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Crazy question, I used to see them posted, graphical form, how does the Canadian 500 mb forecast compare to the GFS and Euro?  Because the mid/upper level pattern over Eastern North America seems to be a huge part of the forecast, especially if a sheared system with dry air pushed into it survives the G. Antilles or doesn't open back to a wave.

(is the Canadian NOLA hurricane a possibility?  Canadian ensembles suggesting Florida?))

[GaWx]

 Per satellite loops, it at least appears to be moving ever so slightly south of due west vs the 5AM NHC's ever so slight north of due west. It may very well be as far south as 16.5 or 16.4 N now though sometimes the satellite suggested location doesn't match the actual due to tilt. If it is at 16.4-5 N, that would be slightly south (by ~15 miles) of the 5 AM track's implied position of 16.6-7 N now. If that's true (although 15 miles may not seem like much), that would imply a slight southward track adjustment at 11AM.

 Other opinions on a likely 11 AM track adjustment?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm considering @MANDA's idea with the LLC now completely exposed, this may open to a wave and never close off again, open to a wave and wait for more favorable conditions, or the current LLC dies and is replaced one under the convection, which would still have the dry air being blown into the system by shear from the W.  And I don't know which 500 mb forecast to trust off the models.  That and how weak/strong, I am clueless.

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This shows a slight SW trend of the mean track from 0Z to 6Z EPS. I think there will be more SW adjustments eventually though not necessarily consistently from run to run.

Sw trend would bring this into the gulf unless a trough blocks it and sweeps it out to sea or a weakness develops and the low goes right up the east coast.

[SnoSki14]

Earl was a mess for days but eventually it became a pretty significant hurricane.

I think this will be a threat down the line. Models like its future prospects regardless of where it heads. The weaker it is now the greater the landfall risks

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per satellite loops, it at least appears to be moving ever so slightly south of due west vs the 5AM NHC's ever so slight north of due west. It may very well be as far south as 16.5 or 16.4 N though sometimes the satellite suggested location doesn't match the actual. If it is at 16.4-5 N, that would be slightly south (by ~15 miles) of the 5 AM track's implied position of 16.6-7 N now. If that's true (although 15 miles may not seem like much), that would imply a slight southward track adjustment at 11AM.

 Other opinions on a likely 11 AM track adjustment?

I don’t think I’d make substantive changes to intensity or track yet if I were the NHC absent recon and additional data. This one “overperformed” in terms of intensifying to 50mph, but the environment remains marginal to hostile and that is going to remain the case for at least a few days. That was never in question. 

That does make me think those quick intensification/early turn ensemble members are going to correct westward eventually. Maybe not enough to change the eventual outcome for the continental US, whatever that is, but we have a long way to go.

[Tatamy]

48 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Latest visible loop since sunrise really shows LLC out racing convection.  Should be interesting disco from TPC at 11am.

If this trend continues today going to be hard for this to survive unless new center somehow can redevelop under the deeper convection.

I like the idea of the system really struggling in the short term with a new center developing under or closer to the deeper convection.