Major Hurricane Fiona

[Superstorm93]

Morning sat loops of invests always stoke the weenies. 

I think the best shot for this to become anything more than a marginal TC is for it to actually tighten up before the islands so that it can skirt to the north of Hispaniola. Still will likely have to fight shear along the way unless it's able to generate enough convection for an ULAC to build. Otherwise, I believe this is going to be another wave that never really gets together before getting torn apart by the Greater Antilles.

 

2022 really is just a different season. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I see a loose low level center, that is not closed quite yet (the winds blowing clouds from the W are well S of the most obvious turning), and not yet covered in storms, although on the satellite it does look like its trying.  The highly respected Korean and Canadian models have hurricane hitting Miami (K) and hitting between Corpus Christi and Houston (C).  I suspect they are outliers.  Edit to delete redundant vis satellite.

 

[MJO812]

Long range but the storm hooks up with a trough on the 6z gfs. Weenie range .

 

[Modfan2]

Always looking towards trends with weather I wonder how the FL east coast cities from Vero to West Palm being very dry (13-15”) for the year correlates to any analogs years for Hurricane season.

This has been as dry a rainy season we have had in the last 10 years along the I 95 corridor and we are 3/4 of the way through.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

As has been said here, the disturbance looks very near to be a TD. Outpacing models to this point. However, shear does not improve from this point through the weekend. Maybe it can be like Earl and fight off the shear enough to intensify in spite of the hostile conditions, but I expect the system to struggle. I do feel confident this will become a TC sooner rather than later. Definitely a land threat

[Superstorm93]

 

 

[cptcatz]

Should be an interesting forecast discussion with so much uncertainty in these models.  

[hlcater]

Conditions are only marginally conducive for the next several days. Shear isn't actually too bad with values fairly consistently between 10-15kts or so, but there's just an enormous amount of dry air hanging out in the central/tropical atlantic at the moment with frequent intrusions shown on both the GFS and EC. The moisture envelope improves somewhat once TD7 tracks near/north of the greater antilles. 

[AnthonyEC]

12Z windshield wiper effect 

[Drummer]

Seems like it might get cheese-grated over Hispanola on that track.

[MJO812]

[olafminesaw]

With a track like that, a weak system is almost more likely to hold together over terrain than a hurricane. 

[hlcater]

Erika part 2!!

[WxWatcher007]

The last 18 hours or so have been pretty impressive in a marginal environment. This has overperformed thus far. That’s a rough track for a LLC though if it played out like that.

Now that we have a well defined center I’ll be watching the next few model cycles to see if that changes track reasoning. Agree with others that this one likely has a cap in intensification potential through the five day forecast period due to dry air and shear. 

[Windspeed]

The last 18 hours or so have been pretty impressive in a marginal environment. This has overperformed thus far. That’s a rough track for a LLC though if it played out like that.
Now that we have a well defined center I’ll be watching the next few model cycles to see if that changes track reasoning. Agree with others that this one likely has a cap in intensification potential through the five day forecast period due to dry air and shear. 

Shear may also impart track adjustments if the upper level vector is southwesterly. I'd stay it's not a horribly confident track position for the DR/Haiti at this stage. I'd be more inclined to see some slight poleward adjustments if the LLC gets tugged north of west downstream. Of course that relies on there being persistent deep convection. Long way to go. May be over the DR or might get tugged slightly north of the GAs. Patience will be a virtue watching this track verify.

[shaggy]

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The last 18 hours or so have been pretty impressive in a marginal environment. This has overperformed thus far. That’s a rough track for a LLC though if it played out like that.
Now that we have a well defined center I’ll be watching the next few model cycles to see if that changes track reasoning. Agree with others that this one likely has a cap in intensification potential through the five day forecast period due to dry air and shear. 

Shear may also impart track adjustments if the upper level vector is southwesterly. I'd stay it's not a horribly confident track position for the DR/Haiti at this stage. I'd be more inclined to see some slight poleward adjustments if the LLC gets tugged north of west downstream. Of course that relies on there being persistent deep convection. Long way to go. May be over the DR or might get tugged slightly north of the GAs. Patience will be a virtue watching this track verify.

Given the model mayhem with this one it's gonna be a headache for the forecasters no doubt. Going to be interesting to say the least.

[Windspeed]

Given the model mayhem with this one it's gonna be a headache for the forecasters no doubt. Going to be interesting to say the least.

I mean even now the mid level canopy/circulation is already tilted to the E/ENE of the low level vorticity maximum. A strong persistent convective envelope has allowed TCG to occur way in advance of modeling, hence now the TD. But it's going to be a prolonged struggle. It has certainly surprised already, but the same environment may keep it at best a weak TS until it reaches the northern Antilles.

[WxWatcher007]

It has been a struggle this year lol

 

[shaggy]

24 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I mean even now the mid level canopy/circulation is already tilted to the E/ENE of the low level vorticity maximum. A strong persistent convective envelope has allowed TCG to occur way in advance of modeling, hence now the TD. But it's going to be a prolonged struggle. It has certainly surprised already, but the same environment may keep it at best a weak TS until it reaches the northern Antilles.

Gfs through 66 is stronger and slower east of the Antilles so we will see what effects a stronger solution along with what you've already showed on the tilt having the ability to move this north of the big islands.

[cptcatz]

12z runs we now have GFS and Icon curving OTS east of the Bahamas while CMC brings it south of Florida into the Gulf...

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z runs we now have GFS and Icon curving OTS east of the Bahamas while CMC brings it south of Florida into the Gulf...

Not that it matters that much right now but both the GFS and Canadian look strange to me for different reasons.

Setting the Canadian aside because of its track record, if anything close to that ridge on the GFS pops that’s trouble.

The weakness the GFS  briefly produces before the ridging takes over late next week pulls TD 7 more northward than it’d otherwise be if that weakness doesn’t materialize.

Edit: but even then you see in subsequent hours that the escape OTS path quickly closes. It’s interesting, but again, far out.

[WxWatcher007]

lol gfs

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

lol gfs

Wish there was a way to award the GFS a weenie tag for that run

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wish there was a way to award the GFS a weenie tag for that run

It’ll be 1,000 miles east of Bermuda next run lol. 

[MJO812]

We track

[cptcatz]

Ok maybe I spoke too soon on GFS taking it OTS

[NorthHillsWx]

All that aside, and this is pure fantasy land so just fun to mention, but the GFS setup is the way you get a strong hurricane into New England. Blocking high preventing escape to the east, incoming trough to the west pulling the system poleward, and a system accelerating into landfall offsetting the cold water. I know it’s fantasy and never going to happen that way but from and upper level pattern depicted that’s how you get a strong storm up north. Essentially slingshot it up through NE

[SnowenOutThere]

27 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z runs we now have GFS and Icon curving OTS east of the Bahamas while CMC brings it south of Florida into the Gulf...

Might need to edit that post right there

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L        ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N  49.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 14.09.2022    0  16.5N  49.5W     1010            36
    0000UTC 15.09.2022   12  16.5N  52.2W     1010            34
    1200UTC 15.09.2022   24  16.3N  54.8W     1010            36
    0000UTC 16.09.2022   36  16.7N  56.0W     1009            39
    1200UTC 16.09.2022   48  16.7N  59.0W     1009            36
    0000UTC 17.09.2022   60  17.5N  61.6W     1008            32
    1200UTC 17.09.2022   72  17.8N  63.7W     1007            31
    0000UTC 18.09.2022   84  18.4N  65.5W     1006            32
    1200UTC 18.09.2022   96  18.5N  67.7W     1005            35
    0000UTC 19.09.2022  108  19.4N  68.7W     1002            40
    1200UTC 19.09.2022  120  20.6N  70.1W      999            52
    0000UTC 20.09.2022  132  21.2N  71.5W      997            53
    1200UTC 20.09.2022  144  22.0N  72.6W      998            48

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

All that aside, and this is pure fantasy land so just fun to mention, but the GFS setup is the way you get a strong hurricane into New England. Blocking high preventing escape to the east, incoming trough to the west pulling the system poleward, and a system accelerating into landfall offsetting the cold water. I know it’s fantasy and never going to happen that way but from and upper level pattern depicted that’s how you get a strong storm up north. Essentially slingshot it up through NE

Agree with everything except water is not all that "cold" off MA and NE at the moment.  Anything that did try to make it up to New England on a track like that with an upper air setup like that would stand a far better chance than usual to be a headline maker.  Especially if it were hauling along at 30-40 mph.

That being said this will change 20 different times on the next 20 GFS runs.  Fantasy land at this point.  If there were model consistency in the days ahead and other models start showing something similar than maybe I'd pay more attention.  For now nothing more than grist for the mill.