Central PA Fall 2022

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Tell the truth, the a.c. is still on, isn't it?

It was on until 5pm today. Turning the heat on when I go to bed...pains me to say that. It's 62 in the house right now

 

[CarlislePaWx]

Man, all 3 model runs from 18z gave Cumberland county 5".  Maybe hoping for 2" might work out.  If it covers the grass it's a good storm.

I'm down to 24.8 and still slowly dropping under crystal-clear skies.  This is my lowest temp for the season thus far.  The whole night below freezing will help pavement accumulations, but probably not anything that falls before 4:00pm.

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

Oz lost...

Prayers answered 

[canderson]

30 at 11:20. Hope to se flakes tomorrow evening, expect zero accumulation or steady snow 

[Bubbler86]

Down to 32 tying our coldest night so far.  Eagles got hosed with a trio of bad calls.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Down to 32 tying our coldest night so far.  Eagles got hosed with a trio of bad calls.

Alot going right  for the commanders tonight. 

Refs missed an obvious face mask call.

But the offensive pass interference was a bs call in my opinion. The receiver has the right to run his route .

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Alot going right  for the commanders tonight. 

Refs missed an obvious face mask call.

But the offensive pass interference was a bs call in my opinion. The receiver has the right to run his route .

I agree that call was questionable.  The 15 yard personal foul for a late hit on a receiver was a terrible call against the Eagles as well.  ESPN called it the most egregious facemask in the history of the NFL.

[Chris78]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I agree that call was questionable.  The 15 yard personal foul for a late hit on a receiver was a terrible call against the Eagles as well. 

Yep. It bounds 

[Blizzard of 93]

23 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Man, all 3 model runs from 18z gave Cumberland county 5".  Maybe hoping for 2" might work out.  If it covers the grass it's a good storm.

I'm down to 24.8 and still slowly dropping under crystal-clear skies.  This is my lowest temp for the season thus far.  The whole night below freezing will help pavement accumulations, but probably not anything that falls before 4:00pm.

I’m at 27 degrees with a dew point of 23.

The 0z GFS looks good for snow chance tomorrow for the I-81 & Rt. 11/15 corridors.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Canadian looks similar to the GFS

[Blizzard of 93]

This early season event could get very interesting If the heavy rates depicted on the 18z & 0z runs materialize in CTP.

[MAG5035]

Down to 24.6ºF here. Been busy today getting the yard the rest of the way cleaned up, putting the riding mowers in the storage garage and bringing the snowblower back to the house today. I’d say there’s a half decent chance of being able to use it here. I’m definitely excited to see some early season synoptic snow. Given the look of the forecast the rest of the week, if this advisory type event materializes here.. it’s likely to stick around for a bit. 

Models are generally on board but a couple differences, especially with the 3k NAM being the warmest. A lot of that QPF is being generated as freezing rain on that. I think this is a pretty cut and dry snow vs rain situation, where the main slug of WAA precip cools the column to allow for snow on a pretty widespread part of the area. ZR impacts likely come after the main shield of precip lifts north, and I think that will be mainly relegated to the central ridges in minor amounts.

Main things to figure out IMO are how much of the Sus Valley gets involved with seeing a period of accumulating snow, and top end amounts in the central counties. I’d say H-burg could go either way with at least seeing some snow stick or perhaps seeing a more notable period of accumulating snow (1-2” variety). York/Lancaster and that part of the LSV a little bit more in question. It may mix down that way but not sure about much in the way of accumulations. As for the other point with top end accums, I currently see this easily being a widespread 2-4 event in the central counties (JST-AOO-UNV-IPT), with a chance at some 5-6” at elevation on some of the ridges. Also noteworthy, it’s one of those cases the models are putting out bigger accumulations via the straight 10-1 snow maps vs the Kuchera method. Looking at thermals, the column looks good from a standpoint of supporting snow in that 4-6hr period when the best precip comes through… but not so much in terms of ideal snow growth. Still though, I think 10:1 is attainable when talking snow crystal growth. Marginal modeled temps at the surface and near surface level are likely what’s bringing Kuchera numbers down some, and I think the area that changes to snow and sees the best rates with the WAA slug (central counties most likely) will ultimately be a bit colder than modeled and not have much trouble accumulating snow. 

One other thing, not thrilled about having to track this event tomorrow with CCX radar down for that maintenance/upgrade lol. It figures that after what seemed like 30-45 days of dry weather that the scheduled 7 day maintenance period would see a significant rain storm and then the first widespread winter wx event of the season in that timeframe. 

 

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

Going from a warmish October and a very warm first 2 weeks of November along with the remnants of a hurricane moving through here just a few days ago to instantly going to potential snow is kind of a shock. I'm actually glad it feels more like November now. I was not enjoying that night where it only got down to 66 lol

[Bubbler86]

29 for the low here.

[anotherman]

22 for a low here.

[Superstorm]

25F low

First freeze before midnight last night.


.

[Bubbler86]

Several stations near me are near freezing (not cold) but the Central LSV is well below.  Big differences between the areas this AM.

 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Down to 24.6ºF here. Been busy today getting the yard the rest of the way cleaned up, putting the riding mowers in the storage garage and bringing the snowblower back to the house today. I’d say there’s a half decent chance of being able to use it here. I’m definitely excited to see some early season synoptic snow. Given the look of the forecast the rest of the week, if this advisory type event materializes here.. it’s likely to stick around for a bit. 

Models are generally on board but a couple differences, especially with the 3k NAM being the warmest. A lot of that QPF is being generated as freezing rain on that. I think this is a pretty cut and dry snow vs rain situation, where the main slug of WAA precip cools the column to allow for snow on a pretty widespread part of the area. ZR impacts likely come after the main shield of precip lifts north, and I think that will be mainly relegated to the central ridges in minor amounts.

Main things to figure out IMO are how much of the Sus Valley gets involved with seeing a period of accumulating snow, and top end amounts in the central counties. I’d say H-burg could go either way with at least seeing some snow stick or perhaps seeing a more notable period of accumulating snow (1-2” variety). York/Lancaster and that part of the LSV a little bit more in question. It may mix down that way but not sure about much in the way of accumulations. As for the other point with top end accums, I currently see this easily being a widespread 2-4 event in the central counties (JST-AOO-UNV-IPT), with a chance at some 5-6” at elevation on some of the ridges. Also noteworthy, it’s one of those cases the models are putting out bigger accumulations via the straight 10-1 snow maps vs the Kuchera method. Looking at thermals, the column looks good from a standpoint of supporting snow in that 4-6hr period when the best precip comes through… but not so much in terms of ideal snow growth. Still though, I think 10:1 is attainable when talking snow crystal growth. Marginal modeled temps at the surface and near surface level are likely what’s bringing Kuchera numbers down some, and I think the area that changes to snow and sees the best rates with the WAA slug (central counties most likely) will ultimately be a bit colder than modeled and not have much trouble accumulating snow. 

One other thing, not thrilled about having to track this event tomorrow with CCX radar down for that maintenance/upgrade lol. It figures that after what seemed like 30-45 days of dry weather that the scheduled 7 day maintenance period would see a significant rain storm and then the first widespread winter wx event of the season in that timeframe. 

 

 

Great post!

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS did not back down.

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z RGEM agrees with GFS

[mahantango#1]

22 was the low here. In just a few days we went from summer to winter.

[Superstorm]

22 was the low here. In just a few days we went from summer to winter.

That’s the new norm


.

[Blizzard of 93]

Low of 24 here this morning in Marysville.

[WmsptWx]

27 here currently.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

We just had a gust to 32.  Super windy out. 

[paweather]

27 with a mix of clouds and sun Let the fun begin. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

27 with a mix of clouds and sun Let the fun begin. 

The full cloud deck along with the wind is keeping us warmer here.  In downtown Waynesboro and the car them says 33.  Cloudy.  If it does snow the main push is rush hour fwiw. 

[sauss06]

I had 25 in the village. I guess its time to turn the heat on in the 2nd floor/bedrooms. I'm not expecting anything to lay on streets, but would be nice to see it in the grass. 

[Bubbler86]

Fwiw, it snowed exactly 4 years ago on this day.  

 

[canderson]

25 was my low. Currently 28.