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Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
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30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes, that's correct! Not sure where you were living at the time Stephen but I measured 7.5" living right smack in the middle of Lanco. I did not have thundersnow from that storm locally. 

I was living in northern NJ.  It Looks like if you extrapolate out the accumulation forecast map up into NJ my guess could be close.  I was actually outside, shoveling the snow, when the thundersnow hit.  To have all that on 11/11 was amazing.  But didn't we have around here a significant snowstorm in early November back in 2018?  I think 10" from that plus it totally took NWS by surprise, creating horrific conditions on the local highways.

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6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I was living in northern NJ.  It Looks like if you extrapolate out the accumulation forecast map up into NJ my guess could be close.  I was actually outside, shoveling the snow, when the thundersnow hit.  To have all that on 11/11 was amazing.  But didn't we have around here a significant snowstorm in early November back in 2018?  I think 10" from that plus it totally took NWS by surprise, creating horrific conditions on the local highways.

Yes - the storm in 2018 brought up 3"/hour rates here during the early afternoon hours. It took me 2.5 hours to make my typical 20 minute drive home from work. 

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I’ll say it, I like the look of this potential Tuesday night system being an early season wintry event for a decent sized chunk of C-PA. Certainly the interior counties but perhaps some of the LSV as well. Decent cold (for November) set in place by today/tonight’s system preceding and a system from the Gulf attacking a fairly strong Canadian high that slides to our north as the system heads into our region. 

QPF hasn’t looked overly prolific on most guidance but given the Gulf of Mexico moisture source it could trend wetter. 12z GFS just coming out for example has a stronger system like the Euro but more of a defined Miller B evolution.. which probably isn’t ideal for the LSV.

I’m not sure this would be the caliber of a November 2018 but certainly at least some kind of light to perhaps moderate event is on the table. Either way, we have serious discussion of some wintry business inside of 5 days already in mid November so that’s a good thing. 

 

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2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ll say it, I like the look of this potential Tuesday night system being an early season wintry event for a decent sized chunk of C-PA. Certainly the interior counties but perhaps some of the LSV as well. Decent cold (for November) set in place by today/tonight’s system preceding and a system from the Gulf attacking a fairly strong Canadian high that slides to our north as the system heads into our region. 

QPF hasn’t looked oveup rly prolific on most guidance but given the Gulf of Mexico moisture source it could trend wetter. 12z GFS just coming out for example has a stronger system like the Euro but more of a defined Miller B evolution.. which probably isn’t ideal for the LSV.

I’m not sure this would be the caliber of a November 2018 but certainly at least some kind of light to perhaps moderate event is on the table. Either way, we have serious discussion of some wintry business inside of 5 days already in mid November so that’s a good thing. 

 

Thanks Mag keeping my hopes up. 

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20 minutes ago, paweather said:

Cutter

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

Boy that’s a major difference between that map and WeatherBell’s. Here’s the same 6hr frame from WB

image.thumb.png.1ffbcc85fc213188dcd9cbe29cedc665.png

Looking at the 850 and 925’s, there is support for frozen at least up front (in support of the Weatherbell version) but the parent 850 low also goes NW of PA on this run. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Boy that’s a major difference between that map and WeatherBell’s. Here’s the same 6hr frame from WB

 

Looking at the 850 and 925’s, there is support for frozen at least up front (in support of the Weatherbell version) but the parent 850 low also goes NW of PA on this run. 

North Central Ohio.    

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41 minutes ago, paweather said:

Cutter

 

Yep. Upper levels while close, are just too far west.  SLP moving about 300-400 miles NW in 6hrs might be a teenie weenie red flag too.  Not been a big fan of the look, but beyond that we get the 500's in much better position for LF/ upslope areas to have a little pre holiday mood adjuster.  

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yep. Upper levels while close, are just too far west.  SLP moving about 300-400 miles NW in 6hrs might be a teenie weenie red flag too.  Not been a big fan of the look, but beyond that we get the 500's in much better position for LF/ upslope areas to have a little pre holiday mood adjuster.  

I called Thanksgiving snow after my Halloween Snow didn't work out take it to the bank. :D

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3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Unless sun can pop out


.

I certainly would not bet any money against it happening especially at our favorite former Harrisburg area commercial airport.   Since the models focus the highest temps after dark it may be tough to make those numbers at MDT.   If it is 73 at midnight, both records are instantly met/tied 

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