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Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
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7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Here is CTP's AFD from 12:07pm yesterday afternoon...literally just a few hours from the onset of one of the biggest rainmakers for me this year - essentially, a 0% chance or rain reaching my area...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1207 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger off of the east coast through early
this week, as a ridge of high pressure holds over Pennsylvania.
A weakening cold front is likely to push through the state late
Wednesday, then high pressure should build in from the Great
Lakes to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 am update... Our current forecast is pretty well in hand,
so only a few cosmetic tweaks were made, based on the latest
observational data.

Late morning satellite and radar imagery showed Atlantic
moisture making a slow approach into the Commonwealth from the
east and southeast. The overall environment appears to be dry
enough across the forecast area (even the Susquehanna Valley
and western Poconos) to keep most, if any rainfall from reaching
the ground this afternoon/early evening. The latest suite of
high resolution, near-term model guidance well supports this
thinking. We`ll retain a very low chance (20-30%) of some patchy
light rain/drizzle over eastern Lancaster and Schuylkill
counties, but that`s about it.

It was a pretty epic back adjustment/24-48 hour model error for all of the LSV to get saturated.  We even had a slight bit of rain over here.   Like I mentioned we had those runs from mid and later last week showing similar to what happened but almost everything had backed away from it as the weekend started.  

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39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Here is CTP's AFD from 12:07pm yesterday afternoon...literally just a few hours from the onset of one of the biggest rainmakers for me this year - essentially, a 0% chance or rain reaching my area...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1207 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger off of the east coast through early
this week, as a ridge of high pressure holds over Pennsylvania.
A weakening cold front is likely to push through the state late
Wednesday, then high pressure should build in from the Great
Lakes to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 am update... Our current forecast is pretty well in hand,
so only a few cosmetic tweaks were made, based on the latest
observational data.

Late morning satellite and radar imagery showed Atlantic
moisture making a slow approach into the Commonwealth from the
east and southeast. The overall environment appears to be dry
enough across the forecast area (even the Susquehanna Valley
and western Poconos) to keep most, if any rainfall from reaching
the ground this afternoon/early evening. The latest suite of
high resolution, near-term model guidance well supports this
thinking. We`ll retain a very low chance (20-30%) of some patchy
light rain/drizzle over eastern Lancaster and Schuylkill
counties, but that`s about it.

this looked (to me) like a normal adjustment back NW like we've seen so so many times over the years.  if one looks over the runs of the past week, this was an often seen adjustment w/in the normal GFS bias.  The maps had that look to it.  With all due respect to the AFD's, the models corrected, and so did the precip fields (for us...not the westers).  Something to keep in mind this season when the precip means a bit more for some of us. Not huggin GFS by any means, but it was there, and has done well enough IMO to just look at for general trend stuff for now.  If yall disagree...well..its a discussion board, and my word isnt gospel by any means. 

This was less than 2 days ago.  MSLP  100miles off Chessy Bay. I'd think we'd all agree that us easters would be keeping an eye on this....ESPECIALLY in winter.

  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_7.png

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think you need Harden and Embiid to get a better PACEr to their game tonight.   Nooners-Cloudy, dank and 62. 

Only 2 home games played but my wife and I are very, very happy to be former Society 76 members. Compared to benefits/perks offered by teams in other sports, the Sixers offerings were minimal. Had to pay full price for parking and concessions and very modest discount on merchandise. Our money will be much better spent elsewhere. 

And then...there's the team...

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2 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

It's raining right now and there's no rain anywhere near here on the radar. None in PA at all anywhere. The closest is some rain far into New York. Is it weird to have it raining without it showing up on radar?

Not really, just low clouds. Common when we have fetch off the ocean. 

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