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Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
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1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

53 this morning .46 rain overnight love these surprise rains. 

sure was nice.  Not sure that it was a surprise, as models hinted at it for the last few days.  My yard approves as patches are starting to fill back in.

 

Frosty mornings in Clearfield this weekend.  Beauty of a weekend.

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looking like the big heatwave is now back to a more muted look from last week as front is on the move and Wed is back to transition day back to our regularly scheduled autumnal weather program.  Last week the GFS teased the warmies with a few runs of more warmth beyond that, but looks like that's not going to happen.

gfs_T2m_us_11.png

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Man, what the heck happened!?  I've been off the grid for a couple days.  Last I saw we were supposed to get basically nothing from this system, yet here I sit with 2.03" of rain.  Radar estimates seem to indicate western Lancaster County as ground zero so I guess it makes sense @Itstrainingtime and I made out so well.  So much for any sustained heat this week. 

A national low of 2 near Baker, NV.  Goodness.  

As for sports, another raucous whiteout in the books, Phillies on fire (man have Harper and Hoskins had some moments or what), and my Packers look like dog sh$t. 

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13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Rain has stopped - 2.16" in the bucket. 

@Mount Joy Snowman I'm glad you exceeded the 2" mark as well...I felt guilty reporting such high totals. It essentially poured the entire night. 

Yeah I was going to say the same, felt like I heard it raining all night here.  Looks like we were the big statewide winners, not a single total on Cocorahs even approaching two inches.

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Here is CTP's AFD from 12:07pm yesterday afternoon...literally just a few hours from the onset of one of the biggest rainmakers for me this year - essentially, a 0% chance or rain reaching my area...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1207 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger off of the east coast through early
this week, as a ridge of high pressure holds over Pennsylvania.
A weakening cold front is likely to push through the state late
Wednesday, then high pressure should build in from the Great
Lakes to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 am update... Our current forecast is pretty well in hand,
so only a few cosmetic tweaks were made, based on the latest
observational data.

Late morning satellite and radar imagery showed Atlantic
moisture making a slow approach into the Commonwealth from the
east and southeast. The overall environment appears to be dry
enough across the forecast area (even the Susquehanna Valley
and western Poconos) to keep most, if any rainfall from reaching
the ground this afternoon/early evening. The latest suite of
high resolution, near-term model guidance well supports this
thinking. We`ll retain a very low chance (20-30%) of some patchy
light rain/drizzle over eastern Lancaster and Schuylkill
counties, but that`s about it.
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