Bubbler86 Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 HRRR's low point for tonight...maybe knock a degree or two off this for a bit of bias seen sometimes. 3K NAM is colder on the ridges but was way too cold last night in not properly dealing with the clouds and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 16 hours ago, canderson said: Down to 66 in the house. Tomorrow the wife probably demands the furnace to be kicked on. A tale as old as time ha. Love seeing all the early snow reports here and even a "puking" reference, has me giddy. Here's something you don't see every day -- the national low of 10 degrees occurred in Iowa, at a couple of outposts in the northwest part of the state. A rare feat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 Nooners...44, windy, mostly cloudy and quite cold. Winds sustained in the 15 area with gusts to 25. Wind chill ~35 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Looking beyond this Sat-Mon warm up that as per GFS Op guidance, it looks like a couple days of mid (and upper 60's with a couple "lucky" 70's being thrown in....we then look to settle into deeper autumn and get to enjoy the much more normalish coolish nights and days. lotsa 30's/50- to low 60's showing up. That starts w/ a frontal passage next Tues. Yes, I'm sure there will be a few surprises (as there always is beyond any 7 day looks), but I personally like what I see...for the next 7-10 days. Not worried a bit about the heights being depicted on the Op guidance past 240 as Ens has a notably more muted look and beyond 7 days, and Ens guidance is usually where I'd place my house money for that timeframe. Havent dug much deeper with other guidance as theres really not anything to look at yet...other than perty leafy colors. Once the white starts...that's a different story. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Red October nooners Sunny and 49 very nice outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 12Z CMC and GFS continue to suggest at least parts of the LSV will escape one (or maybe two?) day of the progged 5 day warm up when a back door/ULL front keeps temps in the 50's at least one day this weekend. Outside that possible chill for some this weekend, both models predict areas of the LSV to see a few days in the 70's (even an 80 possible at CXY) in the Sat-Wed period with the highest likelyhood of the double dight AN temps being Tue and Wed but still a chance even before that. One daytime high record would be in play on both the CMC and GFS....October 25th high of 76 at MDT which was set last year. Normal highs next week are 62 and 63 at MDT. Model Discussion/Not a forecast. Temps based on adding 3-5 degrees to the 2PM panels both for bias/recent verifications and additional warming post 2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Got full and dark clouds now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 Great graphic from the Euro showing the forecasting challenge as depicted. You would think there would be rain in Eastern PA with this map but there really is not, just an air mass. Western Franklin in the mid 70's, Eastern in the 60's. EC is a day ahead of the other two in fully clearing the front mid week and lowering temps back to normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Freeze warning for tonight can't wait for the Blizzard warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 4 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: A tale as old as time ha. Love seeing all the early snow reports here and even a "puking" reference, has me giddy. Here's something you don't see every day -- the national low of 10 degrees occurred in Iowa, at a couple of outposts in the northwest part of the state. A rare feat. Got a text at 9:30 am demanding I turn on the furnace (I have remote access to the hvac system which is great, since I am in the office). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 No precip the 6-7 days. We are going dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, paweather said: Freeze warning for tonight can't wait for the Blizzard warnings. My zone says low of 34. Maybe an update coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: My zone says low of 34. Maybe an update coming. We shall see my zone says the same thing 34 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: We shall see my zone says the same thing 34 The AFD does not really delve into too much. They talk more about the extended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The AFD does not really delve into too much. They talk more about the extended. MU: A Freeze Warning has been issued for northern MD and the LSV from 2-9 a.m. Thursday. But, much like last night, a slight breeze and some evening clouds should limit how low temps go. In outlying areas that do experience lows between 30-32°F, the growing season will be over. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU: A Freeze Warning has been issued for northern MD and the LSV from 2-9 a.m. Thursday. But, much like last night, a slight breeze and some evening clouds should limit how low temps go. In outlying areas that do experience lows between 30-32°F, the growing season will be over. Thanks! I added an MU comment yesterday. Hope I did not offend! LOL Interesting how different places have different interpretations for the growing season. As others have said, my grass is probably not going to abide by any calls for growing season to be over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 RGEM had this at 12Z and did not think to mention but still there at 18Z. Predicting a similar result as last night where Wagons South has the better atmospheric conditions for a freeze. We see how well this verifies tomorrow. Low 20's in VA ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 52 for a late day high after hovering in the 40s most of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 19, 2022 Author Share Posted October 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 52 for a late day high after hovering in the 40s most of the day The sun broke out here, but we never got above 47. However, it is still 46 right now. Both MDT and CXY went well above model progs I saw getting to 54 or 55. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2022 Author Share Posted October 20, 2022 Low of 36 here. I see Cash is in the upper 20's. MDT 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Another topsy-turvy in the temp department last night. Woke up at 5:45 am temp was 41, but some time during the night it dropped to 32 now the temp dropped again to 36. Had some frost ice on the vehicles again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Low in Tamaqua was 28.2 this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2022 Author Share Posted October 20, 2022 A smattering of below freezing temps many seemingly valley based as I have one not far from me but 300 feet down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2022 Author Share Posted October 20, 2022 GFS and NAM have a miserable Sunday now for 2/3 of the state....scattered rain (mostly GFS) and raw. CMC and Euro not buying it yet though. GFS/NAM highs in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 33 with frost this morning in Marysville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 morning commute across northern lanco saw 33 at house with 30-34 between lititz and etown, but once to etown, they must have borrowed middletowns heat gun and they were stuck at 37. Most widespread frost this season (albeit light for most it was rather widespread in a lot of areas). I'd say north of Manheim was the winner in the frosted pumpkin dept. Nice job GFS. over the last week I saw many runs as i was keeping an eye on it, and i'd say it verified pretty well in our area. Looking forward to next week when we look to do this all again. Until then, I'll just enjoy the perty colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 A nice cool autumn day on tap, getting nicer each of the next couple days. October now running 2.8 degrees below avg. This is about as dry as it gets for the Lower 48..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 20, 2022 Author Share Posted October 20, 2022 Saw a note on the MA board that Dulles airport scored two 33's and a 34 over the last 3 mornings. The lowest reading at either CXY or MDT seems to be 39. It appears that MDT has not hit 32 or below in October since October 19th, 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 45 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Saw a note on the MA board that Dulles airport scored two 33's and a 34 over the last 3 mornings. The lowest reading at either CXY or MDT seems to be 39. It appears that MDT has not hit 32 or below in October since October 19th, 2015. Only got down to 38 at home this morning. 33 at the station down the road from the office. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Only got down to 38 at home this morning. 33 at the station down the road from the office. Man am I going to miss having my low-lying spot here for those cold clear calm winter nights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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