Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,616
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
 Share

Recommended Posts

39 but decidedly more humid this Am than last.  Watching models really starting to show a Chamber weekend with sun and highs in the 70's one or both days.    GFS backing off the cold push a bit until early next week but next week is still a fall like week temp wise.   A bit worrisome IMO for sustained cold this month as the orientation of the trough has become much more transient (GFS disco)  in the mid term allowing the cold to escape later in the month.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

39 but decidedly more humid this Am than last.  Watching models really starting to show a Chamber weekend with sun and highs in the 70's one or both days.    GFS backing off the cold push a bit until early next week but next week is still a fall like week temp wise.   A bit worrisome IMO for sustained cold this month as the orientation of the trough has become much more transient (GFS disco)  in the mid term allowing the cold to escape later in the month.  

Let the pattern relax for awhile later this month and then bring it back later in November or early December when it can bring us some snow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Let the pattern relax for awhile later this month and then bring it back later in November or early December when it can bring us some snow.

Yea, it is still only mid October.  My worrisome comment was pointed toward fall permanently setting in.  As depicted the gfs shows temps into the 80's.  Previously it was not showing the stronger warm push.  But almost no one (paweather) wants snow now at risk that it turns against us in December. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

39 but decidedly more humid this Am than last.  Watching models really starting to show a Chamber weekend with sun and highs in the 70's one or both days.    GFS backing off the cold push a bit until early next week but next week is still a fall like week temp wise.   A bit worrisome IMO for sustained cold this month as the orientation of the trough has become much more transient (GFS disco)  in the mid term allowing the cold to escape later in the month.  

Them words right there were the absolute theme of last winter. (and Nina's in general)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

call me crazy but I like dreary autumn days when it rains and sends leaves in to clog up street drainage systems.....:P.

I dont like days n days of it though.

Oh I do too! It was looking like heavier bands instead of drizzle which I greatly prefer but loos drier now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Them words right there were the absolute theme of last winter. (and Nina's in general)

while that may be in winter, its early fall, and as the Nina is expected (and likely starting to rot away already - al la enso disco), I'd be cautious at just using general Nina climo and say x causes y (even though its influence is larger right now...its sounds like its likely to start fading fast. 

Enso is one in a myriad of factors to be considered when thinking longer term.  If one loops back over the last several days of 500's on guidance, you'll note that its not really less defined, its just a different look to to the ridge/trough axis, which IMO is rather normal in seasons of transition as the fight of seasons is on, and that plays a large factor in forcing.  Something for you to think about in the macro scale of things.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...