Central PA Fall 2022

[paweather]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 12Z GFS had the temp around -14 degrees in Northern Minn the AM of Dec 9th.  The 18Z has the same area and time showing -35 degrees! 

Holy smokes! LOL

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, paweather said:

Holy smokes! LOL

The whole run is drastically different out in the upper 200's as both you and I joked about happening:-).  From a blocked cutter to a southern slider.   At 12Z the PA weather 540 line was in PA on Dec 11th...at 18z it is in Central Alabama.   How much for Cape Hatteras? 

[paweather]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The whole run is drastically different out in the upper 200's as both you and I joked about happening:-).  From a blocked cutter to a southern slider.   At 12Z the PA weather 540 line was in PA on Dec 11th...at 18z it is in Central Alabama.   How much for Cape Hatteras? 

yep pretty much figured. LOL

[canderson]

Sunset was gorgeous tonight. 

[paweather]

When do the all-nighters start. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

When do the all-nighters start. 

We need that New Yorker to come back and post another snow map showing 20" plus at the M/D line 

[anotherman]

Big wind gusts here over the last few minutes.

[Chris78]

Love the look as we head towards mid month.

Nice Greenland Block.

Not a dry look either. Love the + precip anomalies in the Tennessee valley.

[paweather]

26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We need that New Yorker to come back and post another snow map showing 20" plus at the M/D line 

I’m ready! 

[paweather]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Love the look as we head towards mid month.

Nice Greenland Block.

Not a dry look either. Love the + precip anomalies in the Tennessee valley.

Thanks for your insights as well. 

[paweather]

Well Sixers 3 game winning streak is over haha: 30 points down back to weather cold out there wind chills it’s getting ready for winter coming 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

Well Sixers 3 game winning streak is over haha: 30 points down back to weather cold out there wind chills it’s getting ready for winter coming 

The shake is melting

[paweather]

My next long-range forecast discussion will probably come out this Friday, though I will try to post it sooner. 

In last week's discussion, I explained that the core of the Arctic air will extend from the northwestern U.S. into the Northern and Central Plains and Upper Midwest as we move into the beginning of December. The eastern U.S., especially across the South, will only experience brief, 1-2 days of colder weather before temperatures rebound each time.

Last week's long-range discussion: https://firsthandweather.com/long-range-forecast/early-december-long-range-forecast

But then things will change. A strong Greenland block will build in early December, resulting in the eastward and southeastward expansion of the colder temperature anomalies. The Southeast will probably be the last to experience any noteworthy, Arctic air, but after about the first 8-10 days of December, things may start getting interesting, temperature and precipitation-wise.

More soon in my next long-range forecast later this week.

[MAG5035]

It took awhile to find the time it was logged but apparently my WS-5000 logged a 60.2 mph daily max wind gust at 3:46 this afternoon. There were some decent gusts at that time of the day but not sure about that high of one. I have notifications set to alert for gusts >50mph and that gust was the only one to trigger that today. I suppose it’s possible. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The system on the 7th still needs to be watched for potential winter weather for CTP. The last 3 runs have pushed the wintry weather further south.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, paweather said:

Waiting on Blizz to post the GFS snow maps! 

The crazy solutions should now continue to show on the Op runs for the period between the 10th & 15th.

It should be just a matter of time until this blocking pattern produces a Winter storm for us.

Here is another look at the 12z GFS storm toward the end of its run.

[paweather]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The crazy solutions should now continue to show on the Op runs for the period between the 10th & 15th.

It should be just a matter of time until this blocking pattern produces a Winter storm for us.

Here is another look at the 12z GFS storm toward the end of its run.

Thanks Blizz!

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanks Blizz!

I just started the Winter thread!

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The whole run is drastically different out in the upper 200's as both you and I joked about happening:-).  From a blocked cutter to a southern slider.   At 12Z the PA weather 540 line was in PA on Dec 11th...at 18z it is in Central Alabama.   How much for Cape Hatteras? 

Speaking specifically about our region (C-PA), a suppressed storm track would be a bigger concern to me than a cutting one with the establishment of a -NAO regime of the caliber thats been advertised solidly on the guidance (-3 to -4). Now truth be told, this is a great looking winter pattern upcoming for the eastern US once it does get truly established… which seems to be still in the realm of just beyond D7-10.

So big question to me is storm track. The strong Greenland block would certainly suppress it, but getting completely overwhelmed with arctic air probably doesn’t help us either in the snow department. Being somewhere in between would be ideal of course. The -PNA is generally forecast to slowly neutralize but stay negative, which in this instance may be a good thing of keeping us in a more active gradient zone. There’d be great potential for something big if we were to line up a coastal with eastern CONUS cold in place and a -NAO induced suppressed (and blocked) storm track coupled with a very warm NW Atlantic SST wise.

What also comes with a blocky pattern? Model mayhem trying to handle the individual features so I’d be looking for a lot of that as well.