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Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

That High in Quebec stays parked there for the duration.

Thats been a problem of late, and w/ the varying depth of cold, as it's been bouncing around, I'm guessing this will be one of a myriad of solutions....even if its the one most here are rooting for.  Need that HP to anchor to keep the wet....white.  

 

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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thats been a problem of late, and w/ the varying depth of cold, as it's been bouncing around, I'm guessing this will be one of a myriad of solutions....even if its the one most here are rooting for.  Need that HP to anchor to keep the wet....white.  

 

Yes, long way to go, but the pattern supports a storm in the east.

This could be a fun week of tracking as we get ready for Turkey Day.

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, long way to go, but the pattern supports a storm in the east.

This could be a fun week of tracking as we get ready for Turkey Day.

If that storm eased east a bit, it would be real bad news for travel and shopping.     An east coast storm on Turkey bone weekend. Ouch. 

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Canadian has the storm but much slower than the GFS, thus allowing the high pressure to position too far east and have maybe an interior ice set up on retreating cold with a primary low heading to the lakes instead of a redeveloping coastal. One thing about the Canadian progged high is it is much stronger (~1048mb). Something is definitely afoot here in this Thanksgiving weekend timeframe. It seems models all have the pressing high that probably eliminates the continuation of whatever moderating trend towards average we have around mid-week next week, and they all currently have some kind of system... So we’ll see if that continues.

Funny I just made a post about the whole coastal thing last week, since the popular opinion for this winter is a reduced threat of them. The 12z GFS scenario sort of illustrates the potential I alluded to in that post if we do line things up for a coastal.. especially in the early part of the winter. 

On 11/10/2022 at 3:26 PM, MAG5035 said:

I agree to a point with the reduced Nor’easter threat but SSTs in the Northwest Atlantic are significantly above average (as they have been this time of the year the last however many years it seems). The Nina influence may not be overly conducive to an active southern jet and a train of coastals but if we do get a setup for one, and we usually do a couple times a winter even in less favorable overall patterns.. those +SST’s would figure to be a factor into really winding one up. If we get a fast starting winter on the front end I think this would be the best chance for us to score something like that early since we’re further inland from the coastal plain (that region can be too warm with the +SSTs and a low that tracks too close to the coast in an early season storm).  

 

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z GEFS ensemble pattern supports the Op. run.

C84A3F2F-A4F6-41F7-A370-A908B02A1E92.png

65255871-6DF8-44DD-96D7-5F0DBF455665.png

That's definitely a plus and verbatim would argue against a cutter solution, but could support a more progressive solution (which would be ok), even if not as big and wound up like GFS Op suggests. 

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