Blizzard of 93 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 27 minutes ago, pasnownut said: for convo purposes... GEFS. not terrible, but WAR still hanging on down south GEPS fugetaboutit WAR wins the war. The good pattern on the ensembles that I posted doesn’t kick in until between day 10 & 15. Day 15 the EPS & GEFS both end looking really good, so the advertised pattern should continue beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, pasnownut said: check out GFS ens. i posted them a bit ago. I hope the king is back. AO and NAO both look to be negative around the time you posted, so it adds some confidence that the window may be opening around that time. PNA heading + as well, so that would promote ridging (or at least less chances of troughiness in the west). From my view, MJO looks to be low amplitude 8/1 around that time frame, That said, nothing hostile about tellies IMO. (Mind you thats just my take, and I dont know if any experts agree. Maybe @MAG5035 (or anyone that has better insight) can step in to tell us what they think. 2nd week in Dec is going to be rockin. Just got to get there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, paweather said: 2nd week in Dec is going to be rockin. Just got to get there! I’m not sure if you noticed the 0z GFS last night had some snow for us way out on December 7th. Only 14 days to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The good pattern on the ensembles that I posted doesn’t kick in until between day 10 & 15. Day 15 the EPS & GEFS both end looking really good, so the advertised pattern should continue beyond. I just posted the 12/3 timeframe to show the different looks being advertised. Here was my "worry" about the LR looks on the ens. but to your point, they do look better as we go further out in time. Hoping the tellies improve the look as we get closer. Surely better than a shut the shades look no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I just posted the 12/3 timeframe to show the different looks being advertised. Here was my "worry" about the LR looks on the ens. but to your point, they do look better as we go further out in time. Hoping the tellies improve the look as we get closer. Surely better than a shut the shades look no doubt. I’ll take my chances with 2 out of the 3 reliable global ensembles showing a great looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 The teleconnections on the EPS support the advertised pattern. -NAO, -EPO & -AO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 The WAR has been a consistent feature for years now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 10 hours ago, yoda said: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/11/joel-embiid-sidelined-with-left-foot-sprain.html LOL- I know he's hurt. I was asking where he actually was last night. Maxey and Harden were on the bench. Embiid was not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: LOL- I know he's hurt. I was asking where he actually was last night. Maxey and Harden were on the bench. Embiid was not. Harden seems like he is cold a lot. Dude wears heavy coats everywhere. What a mess the Net's are... Irving and KD looked terrible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 36 minutes ago, Superstorm said: The WAR has been a consistent feature for years now. . Words NEVER more true.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Not sure of the implications, but loop the 48 hr 500's on GFS. just from 24 hrs ago to latest. Not sure if that helps suppress the weekend mess at all, but it beats the hell out of what yesterday was showing at this time w/ ridging right up to canook land. Also appears to be holding back in the SW (like the Euro was so good at) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 This 12Z GFS 850 anomaly map is a quick look at why snow here on week one of Dec does not look great right now as Blizz mentioned (for most of the East even to our North.) Those temps are in Celsius. Even if we get help from the Atlantic keeping Surface temps more normal, that is frying up above. As usual this is a prog discussion and not a forecast. Lots of ridging over us during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Summer like Bermuda high.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Cold front coming in Mon the 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Summer like Bermuda high. . Surface temps are "tempered" on the GFS due to help from our Northeast so it may not be too bad at the Surface. Some chilly days near or BN and some 50's and low 60's mixed in when get into a stronger SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: Cold front coming in Mon the 5th. The SER beats it back for a bit on this run, but it is close enough to smell the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 Nooners, Sunny and light breeze....55 and quite nice out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 54.5F….very nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Late nooner 53 and gorgeous outside, I am tired of gorgeous weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 59 at 2PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Sunny and 60 on the nose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Sunny and 60 on the nose. Wow, what a rise today. Some stations are getting near +40 off their lows. THV is +37 right now. Our zones said high of 54 this AM. They adjusted them up this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Wow, what a rise today. Some stations are getting near +40 off their lows. THV is +37 right now. Our zones said high of 54 this AM. They adjusted them up this afternoon. My low was just 34 here, so a 26 degree rise for me. There must have been some wild fluctuations in overnight lows this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: My low was just 34 here, so a 26 degree rise for me. There must have been some wild fluctuations in overnight lows this morning. I had posted that map showing some areas were in the low 40's this AM while 15 miles were 20's. The atmospheric cap did not break for some last night. THV is at 60 and their low was 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 This is great weather. Extend the grill season.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Superstorm said: This is great weather. Extend the grill season. . At least one more mow coming now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 The big issue I see getting into the opening week of December or so is despite the good teleconnection progs in the NAO/AO/EPO realm, the development of a pretty negative PNA in the interim is going to drive up the SE ridging. I think the evolution to this was probably a factor in losing the chance of our weekend system being anything wintry, that and the complete loss of a high pressure to the north that was a key factor in the wintry solutions several days ago. In contrast to last December, which also had a really negative PNA (much more negative at one point than what is currently being forecasted on model progs), we have the other teleconnections looking half decent going forward. We also have MJO influence that is currently in Phase 6, that should progress into colder phases (for NDJ) 7 and perhaps 8 eventually. I think we’ll get to where we need to for a good period of potential winter mischief, but it probably comes at some point during or more likely… after the first week of December. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 After a frosty low of 23.2 this morning, my afternoon high was a very pleasant 58.8 degrees. That's a 35.6 degree diurnal. Low dew points helped in both the cooling and the warming process. It was just nice to have the sun feel warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 House hit 61. Saw 59 here in NYC. It was short sleeve shirt weather in the sun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, canderson said: House hit 61. Saw 59 here in NYC. It was short sleeve shirt weather in the sun. It’s November go long sleeve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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