paweather Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Windy out there enjoy the Brisket Nut and Blizz bring us some good post Thanksgiving white dreams! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Pretty cool temp spike last night in advance of the cold front - my temp at midnight was 24.4 degrees, at 1:00am it was 35.2. Anyone else with a home station record a similar rise in temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Pretty cool temp spike last night in advance of the cold front - my temp at midnight was 24.4 degrees, at 1:00am it was 35.2. Anyone else with a home station record a similar rise in temps? yes but not to the extent of yours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 20, 2022 Author Share Posted November 20, 2022 12Z GFS has the week ahead gradually becoming milder (mid to upper 50's Thanksgiving Day) then 2-4" of rain over the weekend. A bit of a break from threats still seems like the call. Disappointed that the Thanksgiving weekend threat seems dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Pretty cool temp spike last night in advance of the cold front - my temp at midnight was 24.4 degrees, at 1:00am it was 35.2. Anyone else with a home station record a similar rise in temps?Yep….not as extreme as yours though:1. 27.1F at 11:09 pm2. Rose to 32.7 at 2:34 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z GFS has the week ahead gradually becoming milder (mid to upper 50's Thanksgiving Day) then 2-4" of rain over the weekend. A bit of a break from threats still seems like the call. Disappointed that the Thanksgiving weekend threat seems dead. Dang OK let’s go December! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 JB is saying the models are in lala land on the end of week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z GFS has the week ahead gradually becoming milder (mid to upper 50's Thanksgiving Day) then 2-4" of rain over the weekend. A bit of a break from threats still seems like the call. Disappointed that the Thanksgiving weekend threat seems dead. I’m actually confused on what to pack and wear in NYC wed -fri. A light coat I thought would be ok but now a LL Bean fleece might be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 51 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: JB is saying the models are in lala land on the end of week storm. Yes, the models are correcting back to a strong storm towards the coast, but too far inland at this time. It’s Probably too late & too warm for most of us, but the final track is not yet written in stone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 4 hours ago, pasnownut said: and like Blizz, I'm not yet ready to give away late weekend chance at some fun for some. Still enough spread that no solution is close to a lock. 6z has a better track and thermals gettin better, but still notable run to run disparities, so we have some work to do. Ens diverge a bit as well, but euro and GEPS at 500 would give better shot a colder solutions. Blizz...go get this thing for us. The 12z Euro deepens a coastal low right into NYC on Friday night. This run is good enough to flip North central PA to snow. You might be in a good spot at your cabin on Friday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 20, 2022 Author Share Posted November 20, 2022 EC showed the Miller scenario, but the primary is up in the Great Lakes before it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: EC showed the Miller scenario, but the primary is up in the Great Lakes before it happens. That primary is very weak. Need the coastal to get going & deepen as soon as possible further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 20, 2022 Author Share Posted November 20, 2022 23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That primary is very weak. Need the coastal to get going & deepen as soon as possible further south. If the primary gets to the GL, we are flooded with warm air. Has to transfer way before that IMO. The fact that it is AN prior to the storm does us no favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Weekend storm looks at this point to need a lot of luck to get us snow. Lots of time and I’ll buy a rabbit’s foot tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If the primary gets to the GL, we are flooded with warm air. Has to transfer way before that IMO. Bingo. That is a lights out depiction for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Bingo. That is a lights out depiction for us. I think most of us are out of the game for this event, but the the higher elevations of the northern & western half of CTP are still in the game in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 It looks like an ugly weekend rain wise if not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 6 hours ago, canderson said: What time’s dinner? around 6. Coming off smoker now but has to rest a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 6 hours ago, paweather said: Windy out there enjoy the Brisket Nut and Blizz bring us some good post Thanksgiving white dreams! thx. just checked and nooners didnt help much. Lets see how happy the 18zs feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 If it helps any, this year I'm rooting for big central PA snows all winter long... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, the models are correcting back to a strong storm towards the coast, but too far inland at this time. It’s Probably too late & too warm for most of us, but the final track is not yet written in stone. agreed. Thats how I saw it. Ens didnt help much as well, so window may be narrowing a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 20, 2022 Author Share Posted November 20, 2022 Just now, Voyager said: If it helps any, this year I'm rooting for big central PA snows all winter long... I am rooting for at least one snowstorm of a foot or more in Phoenix, so we have each other's backs there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I am rooting for at least one snowstorm of a foot or more in Phoenix, so we have each other's backs there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Bingo. That is a lights out depiction for us. yeah thats not good. Hard to argue about that. 540's waaayyyy too far north. IF that coastal can get cranking...and thats a big if....you'd likely see thermals trend better for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 26 minutes ago, canderson said: It looks like an ugly weekend rain wise if not snow. yeah that would suck. I'd rather suppression depression over a wet weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 20, 2022 Author Share Posted November 20, 2022 Lots of Gabe Davis talk here. Josh Allen needs to get healthy for Gabe to get off my bench going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 18z GFS at 108 has a cold storm and almost wants to vertically stack.....hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Not sure it gets it done, but its an interesting look. Gotta run. Meat calls. later gang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 18z GFS has no cold air to work with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 18 minutes ago, Voyager said: If it helps any, this year I'm rooting for big central PA snows all winter long... Gee thanks! You coming home for Thanksgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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