pasnownut Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS only did well where it showed no snow for the LSV. I am a GFS fan but its late run up to the storm showed NWS should have been forecasting a plowable at MDT and basically all of the LSV west from there. When you go slightly west from the Capital area, the Canadian was way overblown as well. One of the worst GFS forecasts in quite some time though it was not so bad if you go back 48 hours...just the 24 hours leading up to the event. Here is the 12Z GFS from yesterday. It truly is laughable in the LSV. Canderson was 5" short. LOL My maps were inside 18 hrs from go time....not 48hrs....but ok. I'll play along. Since you are cherrypicking to try to discredit me...or new to this....let me help you....there are always subtle shifts within any model where razor thin margins of error make a big difference. EVERYONE here knows that....including you. Nice try though. I've no problem going out on a limb or worried about being wrong.....but my scorecard doesnt look too bad. Surely not perfect like yours...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 46 and quite breezy here under variably cloudy skies. You were referring to Elliott Abrams yesterday - I remember when I was young, there were a few terms he used often to describe cloud cover during the winter months: Variably Cloudy - did NOT want to hear that. It meant flurries at best. Considerable Cloudiness - not a big fan of that either...usually meant light snow/flurries that didn't amount to much Cloudy - now we're talking. Potentially could be a meaningful snowfall Overcast - the best term. Often used during significant events That's my recollection and reaction to how his forecast would begin for the day...I always remember wanting to hear him start of with "Cloudy and cold today with..." or "Overcast and cold with..." I do remember those phrases and thought there were fairly common but maybe it was due to me listening to him so much? I use variably cloudy all the time but not considerable as much anymore. Spot on with your childhood cloud coverage thoughts. Variably cloudy was never get out of school cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 After pointing out how bad it was yesterday, back to the well on the GFS with the "Bubbler is not a Turkey" long ranger keep an eye on Turkey weekend thought. Still not what I am hoping for with a trailing front SLP but the GFS does block the Mid-Western Low now and turn it into a Miller B snow for area north of us...with some leftovers for the LSV Sat AM. Still think it bears watching and is our next meaningful chance of accumulating snow in much of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 moving on from the lolfest above... GFS trying to go from flop to flip and gets critical thickness now to PA border for next Friday, but dont take my word for it....toggle back through the maps. takeaway is that post turk day is looking moist for many....just not sure if that moist can be frozen. Nooners say maybe for northers, and as its sub 240, who knows....500 maps within GFS suite are varied, and if the GEFS is right....that may be something to chat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Late nooner 46 and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Late nooner 46 and cloudy. After a bit of a spike in temps earlier this morning, the temp has really leveled off here over the past couple of hours. It was 47 at 11am, it's now 46 two hours later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: After a bit of a spike in temps earlier this morning, the temp has really leveled off here over the past couple of hours. It was 47 at 11am, it's now 46 two hours later. Yeah I noticed the same thing as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 Still only 39 here. Would not be so bad if not windy as well. Euro is back to winding up the Mid-West Low but signs of it being blocked and "trying to" transfer are evident on this pic....just no cold air to take advantage of that even if it happened. Messy Turkey Day for much of the eastern part of the nation on this depiction. It goes on to almost stall and intensify into a sub 970 SLP a few panels later. The transfer does not happen like it does on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Still only 39 here. Would not be so bad if not windy as well. Euro is back to winding up the Mid-West Low but signs of it being blocked and "trying to" transfer are evident on this pic....just no cold air to take advantage of that even if it happened. Messy Turkey Day for much of the eastern part of the nation on this depiction. It goes on to almost stall and intensify into a sub 970 SLP a few panels later. The transfer does not happen like it does on the GFS. If MU is correct we're going to see a lot of those tracks over the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: If MU is correct we're going to see a lot of those tracks over the next few months. It has seemed to be the theme for several years now. Even if they hit a roadblock and transfer, they get too far north for us to get straight powder. It is why I always mention GAG because it is so rare that we get straight Gulf monsters recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 Saw this on the MA. Tolleris has gone to hour 552 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Saw this on the MA. Tolleris has gone to hour 552 map. He sort of covers both ends of the spectrum with "Woof" and "Just something to watch for" - he can't be wrong! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 43 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Saw this on the MA. Tolleris has gone to hour 552 map. I'm all in and Marking the 7th down especially since it is DT! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: He sort of covers both ends of the spectrum with "Woof" and "Just something to watch for" - he can't be wrong! LOL, when you are talking more than a week ahead you better cover all ends. I do. LOL. I understand his way of thinking but he woofs a lot more than the average dog. If he and JB were in the room, no one coupld get sleep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 44 for the high today. And that snow we had is history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 16, 2022 Author Share Posted November 16, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: I'm all in and Marking the 7th down especially since it is DT! LOL. It's literally a lock coming from Richmond. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Been very busy and out of touch. Buffalo is gonna get 4 FEET of snow Friday and Saturday?? The Bills have a hole game Sunday … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 34 this morning with the high predicted to be 40. Average wind today 14 mph, with 24 mph gusts Going to be busy clearing stadium seats in Buffalo. Ha! Jim Cantore live in Buffalo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 22 hours ago, pawatch said: I ended up measuring 2.1” of snow here, just north of Williamsport. This morning the grass is still covered with snow but the roads are bare. A reminder that winter is here. Congrats! Winter weather is certainly here with these temperatures the next few days. We also might have another Winter Storm threat right after Thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 The 0z GFS & Canadian now both show the next Winter storm chance for next Friday & Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Anybody up for a trip to the South towns? I'm thinking of taking a tent to a open field somewhere around Hamburg, which is an awesome little town, and just getting buried. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 30 for the low this AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 30 for the low this AM Same low of 30 in Marysville. We must have had a brief flurry overnight because there are some flakes on the car tops. This was not a true car topper, but scattered flakes that stuck to the car. Lol, this was a very light scattered car topper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 10 hours ago, canderson said: Been very busy and out of touch. Buffalo is gonna get 4 FEET of snow Friday and Saturday?? The Bills have a hole game Sunday … NYZ010-011-171630- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.221118T0000Z-221120T1800Z/ Northern Erie-Genesee- Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia 328 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet in the most persistent lake snows. The heaviest snow is expected late this evening through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches per hour. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph with produce patchy blowing snow. Now I love a good blizzard but I'm afraid I'd have to pass on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Same low of 30 in Marysville. We must have had a brief flurry overnight because there are some flakes on the car tops. This was not a true car topper, but scattered flakes that stuck to the car. Lol, this was a very light scattered car topper! Mark it up for a T. Just not sure what day to apply it to. LOL. Need to stay up to midnight each night so you can make sure your records are rights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 32 and sunny. Let's do it on Thanksgiving! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 17, 2022 Author Share Posted November 17, 2022 43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z GFS & Canadian now both show the next Winter storm chance for next Friday & Saturday. The 0Z GFS is similar to what I am looking to happen. A wave forms at the tail end of the front and changes us to snow as it pulls down cold air. The 6Z has the wave forming much farther north and is no bueno. But the chance is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 29 was the low here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The 0Z GFS is similar to what I am looking to happen. A wave forms at the tail end of the front and changes us to snow as it pulls down cold air. The 6Z has the wave forming much farther north and is no bueno. But the chance is there. Is Thanksgiving day looking good at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Is Thanksgiving day looking good at this point? The last i saw it was to be mid-40s and sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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