pasnownut Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU on tomorrow: (1/2) A double-barreled storm system will bring periods of rain to southeastern PA from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The counterclockwise flow around the primary area of low pressure will partially disrupt the north-to-northeasterly flow of cold air to its southeast.. (2/2) Thus, warmer air being drawn north/west into the LSV should face little resistance. However, the rain may still start as a brief period of wet snow.. or mixed rain and snow.. N/W of I-81. Snow won't accumulate on roadways, but a quick coating - 1" is possible on ridgetops One potential bust is that nooners at 36 hrs...GFS and NAM are 4mb off and 100 miles w/ SLP placement and 700 wind fields and thermal are notably different. NAM is warmer of the 2 (hoists flag). I think one of them is gettin first taste of crow if they dont come to a consensus quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Still 35 at noon-feels like winter up here. BGM still below freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 36°F at time of posting. It's cold and gray. I think the people in this area spent the summer and fall playing chicken with the cost of home heating oil, as the local home heating oil trucks have become the seasonal flower lately. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 40 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU on tomorrow: (1/2) A double-barreled storm system will bring periods of rain to southeastern PA from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The counterclockwise flow around the primary area of low pressure will partially disrupt the north-to-northeasterly flow of cold air to its southeast.. (2/2) Thus, warmer air being drawn north/west into the LSV should face little resistance. However, the rain may still start as a brief period of wet snow.. or mixed rain and snow.. N/W of I-81. Snow won't accumulate on roadways, but a quick coating - 1" is possible on ridgetops This could happen in mid January, and we (south and east of I81) would be in trouble. When I was a kid and heard, "double barrel" low pressures, I would get so excited. Now I think, "ok, here comes the warm layers. No chance east of the mountains". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 Interesting panel. Surface temps in the mid to upper 30's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Interesting panel. Surface temps in the mid to upper 30's though. Interesting we are back in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, Superstorm said: This could happen in mid January, and we (south and east of I81) would be in trouble. When I was a kid and heard, "double barrel" low pressures, I would get so excited. Now I think, "ok, here comes the warm layers. No chance east of the mountains". Exactly! And it happens nearly every winter. We could be clear and 10 at 7am and IP/ZR at 7pm and 32. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 @paweather if it comes down hard enough tomorrow do you think you can overcome the warm road temps in Palmyra/on the surface? And sun angle...LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @paweather if it comes down hard enough tomorrow do you think you can overcome the warm road temps in Palmyra/on the surface? And sun angle...LOL Of course! LOL. Looks like SC is lined up to get 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: Of course! LOL. Looks like SC is lined up to get 2-3" SC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 That's quite a shift on the Euro. Kinda the only model at this point that gets rain/snow mix that far south and it's a large shift from the 0Z run so tough to put a lot of stock in it. Will probably go back closer to the 0Z run at 18Z. I'll still enjoy the digital white rain for 6 more hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: SC? State College sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: SC? 31 minutes ago, paweather said: State College sorry Yeah...I was starting to hum the Southern California Trojans fight song imaging Traveler the horse circling the Coliseum. Not a fan of USC but that fight song gives me goosebumps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Aleet! Aleet! Aleet! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 237 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 PAZ036-056-063-064-150745- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.221115T1800Z-221116T0300Z/ Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 237 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of a coating to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Franklin, Perry, Cumberland and Adams Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM to 10 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The larger snow totals of 1-2 inches will mostly occur in the higher terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Aleet! Aleet! Aleet! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 237 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 PAZ036-056-063-064-150745- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.221115T1800Z-221116T0300Z/ Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 237 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of a coating to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Franklin, Perry, Cumberland and Adams Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM to 10 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The larger snow totals of 1-2 inches will mostly occur in the higher terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && Well timed after the Euro run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well timed after the Euro run? Pretty amazing to go to this from the total nothing in this morning's forecast. I'm not going to complain. It would be great to start off the season with 1-2"...but I'll take whatever mother nature decides to dish out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yeah...I was starting to hum the Southern California Trojans fight song imaging Traveler the horse circling the Coliseum. Not a fan of USC but that fight song gives me goosebumps. I don't know why I used SC but I was thinking the same thing. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Aleet! Aleet! Aleet! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 237 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 PAZ036-056-063-064-150745- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0020.221115T1800Z-221116T0300Z/ Franklin-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg 237 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of a coating to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Franklin, Perry, Cumberland and Adams Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM to 10 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The larger snow totals of 1-2 inches will mostly occur in the higher terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && Congrats! Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Pretty amazing to go to this from the total nothing in this morning's forecast. I'm not going to complain. It would be great to start off the season with 1-2"...but I'll take whatever mother nature decides to dish out. This is what the pro from Millersville is saying Any brief period of wet #snow N/W of I-81 is most likely between 3-8 p.m. Tuesday. Accumulations of a coating - 1" (non-paved surfaces) are most likely in the higher terrain of Perry, northern Dauphin, Cumberland, & Franklin Co's. Roads will just be wet for the afternoon commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 217 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-151930- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0021.221115T2100Z-221116T1400Z/ Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna- Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Monticello, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, Wilkes-Barre, Milford, and Honesdale 217 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In New York, Sullivan county. In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna, Northern Wayne, Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM Tuesday to 9 AM EST Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Congrats! Enjoy! Hey we still have 19 hours until the start of the WWA. Maybe a smidge more cold can be pushed across the river your way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is what the pro from Millersville is saying Any brief period of wet #snow N/W of I-81 is most likely between 3-8 p.m. Tuesday. Accumulations of a coating - 1" (non-paved surfaces) are most likely in the higher terrain of Perry, northern Dauphin, Cumberland, & Franklin Co's. Roads will just be wet for the afternoon commute. He might regret leaving the high ground of Adams County off of this list... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Hey we still have 19 hours until the start of the WWA. Maybe a smidge more cold can be pushed across the river your way? Yeah we have a shot not likely if it comes down hard enough it may cool the column even more we shall see thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 It's been totally overcast here all day so far. That has kept the temp to just 41 degrees as of 3:00pm. Low this morning was 35.2 so a pretty small diurnal for the day (roughly six degrees). I'm just starting to see a few blue breaks appearing, so perhaps the high will climb a little further. Those weekend temps sure look cold. Highs in the mid 30's with lows around 20. That's just about the normal high and low for mid-January, the coldest average temps of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: He might regret leaving the high ground of Adams County off of this list... I am not at all gung-ho or thinking anything lays on the pavement here. 3 past nooners, Mostly Sunny and 45. It would not surprise me to see some 45-50 creeping into the far SE area of the LSV tomorrow...or at least a bit close to Philly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Pretty darn close: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, paweather said: Pretty darn close: Storm started out a little further SE on the NAM but surface a little warmer so it washed. Looks like we'll end with close but no cigar in the southeast but north and west of Harrisburg continues to look good for some light accums. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Greensnow said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 217 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-151930- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0021.221115T2100Z-221116T1400Z/ Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna- Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Monticello, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, Wilkes-Barre, Milford, and Honesdale 217 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In New York, Sullivan county. In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna, Northern Wayne, Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM Tuesday to 9 AM EST Wednesday. throwing my congrats out in advance. Enjoy and send pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 53 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Storm started out a little further SE on the NAM but surface a little warmer so it washed. Looks like we'll end with close but no cigar in the southeast but north and west of Harrisburg continues to look good for some light accums. looked more like 12z GFS regarding SLP. That helped thermal boundary with a tad less warm air intrusion for lower part of state NW looks good. still stickin w/ my gut for 80 southers having trouble for much in the way of accums. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted November 14, 2022 Share Posted November 14, 2022 Wow at that GFS run. Dang! Good thump for the true central folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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