paweather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Saw this posted in the MA forum...what BS missing Cashtown and I like that. yeah I got fringed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 It is f'n pouring rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Just now, canderson said: It is f'n pouring rain Just reached .3" here. Heaviest stuff has now moved up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 early nooner rain 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, canderson said: It is f'n pouring rain yeah, i was just thinking my drive to Leola is going to suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes, that's correct! Not sure where you were living at the time Stephen but I measured 7.5" living right smack in the middle of Lanco. I did not have thundersnow from that storm locally. I was living in northern NJ. It Looks like if you extrapolate out the accumulation forecast map up into NJ my guess could be close. I was actually outside, shoveling the snow, when the thundersnow hit. To have all that on 11/11 was amazing. But didn't we have around here a significant snowstorm in early November back in 2018? I think 10" from that plus it totally took NWS by surprise, creating horrific conditions on the local highways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I was living in northern NJ. It Looks like if you extrapolate out the accumulation forecast map up into NJ my guess could be close. I was actually outside, shoveling the snow, when the thundersnow hit. To have all that on 11/11 was amazing. But didn't we have around here a significant snowstorm in early November back in 2018? I think 10" from that plus it totally took NWS by surprise, creating horrific conditions on the local highways. Yes - the storm in 2018 brought up 3"/hour rates here during the early afternoon hours. It took me 2.5 hours to make my typical 20 minute drive home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Late next week now looks like yesterday's CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 I’ll say it, I like the look of this potential Tuesday night system being an early season wintry event for a decent sized chunk of C-PA. Certainly the interior counties but perhaps some of the LSV as well. Decent cold (for November) set in place by today/tonight’s system preceding and a system from the Gulf attacking a fairly strong Canadian high that slides to our north as the system heads into our region. QPF hasn’t looked overly prolific on most guidance but given the Gulf of Mexico moisture source it could trend wetter. 12z GFS just coming out for example has a stronger system like the Euro but more of a defined Miller B evolution.. which probably isn’t ideal for the LSV. I’m not sure this would be the caliber of a November 2018 but certainly at least some kind of light to perhaps moderate event is on the table. Either way, we have serious discussion of some wintry business inside of 5 days already in mid November so that’s a good thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Late next week now looks like yesterday's CMC. Flipping between 6Z and 12Z for the same hours is super drastic and yea, good call...it is a lot like the CMC. FWIW, the CMC does not have a cutter for Tue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I’ll say it, I like the look of this potential Tuesday night system being an early season wintry event for a decent sized chunk of C-PA. Certainly the interior counties but perhaps some of the LSV as well. Decent cold (for November) set in place by today/tonight’s system preceding and a system from the Gulf attacking a fairly strong Canadian high that slides to our north as the system heads into our region. QPF hasn’t looked oveup rly prolific on most guidance but given the Gulf of Mexico moisture source it could trend wetter. 12z GFS just coming out for example has a stronger system like the Euro but more of a defined Miller B evolution.. which probably isn’t ideal for the LSV. I’m not sure this would be the caliber of a November 2018 but certainly at least some kind of light to perhaps moderate event is on the table. Either way, we have serious discussion of some wintry business inside of 5 days already in mid November so that’s a good thing. Thanks Mag keeping my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Flipping between 6Z and 12Z for the same hours is super drastic and yea, good call...it is a lot like the CMC. FWIW, the CMC does not have a cutter for Tue. Plenty of time too change as well. Start the Model reading is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, paweather said: Cutter Boy that’s a major difference between that map and WeatherBell’s. Here’s the same 6hr frame from WB Looking at the 850 and 925’s, there is support for frozen at least up front (in support of the Weatherbell version) but the parent 850 low also goes NW of PA on this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Boy that’s a major difference between that map and WeatherBell’s. Here’s the same 6hr frame from WB Looking at the 850 and 925’s, there is support for frozen at least up front (in support of the Weatherbell version) but the parent 850 low also goes NW of PA on this run. North Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 Slightly early nooners. Light rain and 61. Temps are toasty above and think that mixes down soon. About 3/4" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Slightly early nooners. Light rain and 61. Temps are toasty above and think that mixes down soon. About 3/4" so far. 63 here with .35" of rain so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 41 minutes ago, paweather said: Cutter Yep. Upper levels while close, are just too far west. SLP moving about 300-400 miles NW in 6hrs might be a teenie weenie red flag too. Not been a big fan of the look, but beyond that we get the 500's in much better position for LF/ upslope areas to have a little pre holiday mood adjuster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yep. Upper levels while close, are just too far west. SLP moving about 300-400 miles NW in 6hrs might be a teenie weenie red flag too. Not been a big fan of the look, but beyond that we get the 500's in much better position for LF/ upslope areas to have a little pre holiday mood adjuster. I called Thanksgiving snow after my Halloween Snow didn't work out take it to the bank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 55 and .67 rain so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: I called Thanksgiving after my Halloween Snow didn't work out take it to the bank. Tue is officially Steve Irwin day if that snow happens to work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Tue is officially Steve Irwin day if that snow happens to work out. I like it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 The MDT record highs for today and tomorrow are 72 and 73 respectively. Probably not going to get that overnight but just in case.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 The best run for LSV snow on Tue was the CMC...worst I could find was the UK which is no snow anywhere in PA. CMC map. Kuch is a bit less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 The MDT record highs for today and tomorrow are 72 and 73 respectively. Probably not going to get that overnight but just in case.... Unless sun can pop out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Unless sun can pop out . I certainly would not bet any money against it happening especially at our favorite former Harrisburg area commercial airport. Since the models focus the highest temps after dark it may be tough to make those numbers at MDT. If it is 73 at midnight, both records are instantly met/tied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Steady rain, half inch officially in the bucket. Temp is up to 65... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Unless sun can pop out . Steady rain looks to be out of here in the next 30-60 minutes...breaks appearing in VA moving north: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The MDT record highs for today and tomorrow are 72 and 73 respectively. Probably not going to get that overnight but just in case.... MU is already up to 67 now - seems like a pretty decent chance to me of reaching the 70s in some areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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