Bubbler86 Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 56 was the low. I seen I was 2 degrees warmer then MDT yesterday that breeze helped scour out the cool air. Going to be some temp differences between stations the next 4-5 days it would seem. Some stations could hit 70 every day until Mon or Tue while others may only hit once or twice....or there could be a day where no one hits 70. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 As per that statement earlier this week about first chance at flakes (second limb I went out on after first one cracked), still looking good for first flakage mid next week for normal lucky ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Getting the wind this morning. But the rain is currently dry slotting us. Not sure we are getting the 1-2” the NWS is calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Wet and 59 rainy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: A wet 60 degrees this AM. Super windy. Slightly under 1/4" from the AM rains here. Exactly my obs - 60 degrees, .23" of rain has fallen so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, pawatch said: Getting the wind this morning. But the rain is currently dry slotting us. Not sure we are getting the 1-2” the NWS is calling for. I wonder how much will actually fall with the squall line - seems like while it might rain quite hard in some places, not sure it rains long enough to pull off those amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 A little under .2" here so far. We'll see what happens later in the day when the front passes through. I agree with Nut about the northern tier seeing its first snows early to mid next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I wonder how much will actually fall with the squall line - seems like while it might rain quite hard in some places, not sure it rains long enough to pull off those amounts. looks like we all get some, but emphasis is north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: A little under .2" here so far. We'll see what happens later in the day when the front passes through. I agree with Nut about the northern tier seeing its first snows early to mid next week. im at .04 so far, so yeah weve got some "ground to cover" rainwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 and even if we get jipped down here, i hope the norther folk get the goods, as they still have some deficit to make up for. My well at cabin has slightly recovered from summer lows, but not by much. Mind you thats merely a single point obs, but its all i got for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: A little under .2" here so far. We'll see what happens later in the day when the front passes through. I agree with Nut about the northern tier seeing its first snows early to mid next week. I was going to tag you in a post this morning to see if you were okay - I was concerned as you haven't posted much lately. (I know you're busy with fatherly duties and the house situation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 19 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Blizzard of 93 @paweather from MU: "The season's first Freeze Warning may very well be issued next Tuesday or Wednesday night" I was gung ho on this up until yesterday and am still wondering now. What was a 32 Tue Am here is now a 37-40 Tue Am on the latest GFS. Same with Euro and CMC. Seems the progs are having issues determining the real press of cold air as they have vacillated back and forth for days now. We did have the night earlier this week that went way under modeled forecasts so... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: A little under .2" here so far. We'll see what happens later in the day when the front passes through. I agree with Nut about the northern tier seeing its first snows early to mid next week. I'm going to reiterate that I'm not thinking we do anything snowwise down here. Likely too early for us. My thoughts from a few days back were the easy pickings, the normal norther wester crew NC/Laurel peeps. NOT us....even though they are part of us. Just setting the table for reasonable expectations. This limb feels a bit safer than the last (and weather world mentioned it last night....so they are in my camp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was going to tag you in a post this morning to see if you were okay - I was concerned as you haven't posted much lately. (I know you're busy with fatherly duties and the house situation) Oh yes all good here. You nailed it with closing on the house at the end of the month and kids being exhausting. We just transferred the boy out of his crib and into the toddler bed and the newfound freedom has made for some difficult nights. I also got brought back to work in Harrisburg a couple days a week so sometimes I'm not as active on those days. All in all, everything is fine. Just a lot on my plate. Thanks for the concern though, much appreciated. Hope you and yours are doing well. As an aside, I just got reminded by my wife that I am being drug to a wedding on Saturday (for people I barely know, no less), so I'm going to miss the bulk of the PSU-Michigan game. To say I'm displeased would be an understatement ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Oh yes all good here. You nailed it with closing on the house at the end of the month and kids being exhausting. We just transferred the boy out of his crib and into the toddler bed and the newfound freedom has made for some difficult nights. I also got brought back to work in Harrisburg a couple days a week so sometimes I'm not as active on those days. All in all, everything is fine. Just a lot on my plate. Thanks for the concern though, much appreciated. Hope you and yours are doing well. As an aside, I just got reminded by my wife that I am being drug to a wedding on Saturday (for people I barely know, no less), so I'm going to miss the bulk of the PSU-Michigan game. To say I'm displeased would be an understatement ha. So glad to hear that all is well! My wife wants me to take her to a craft show on Saturday - I told her she's getting out of bed early, because we'll be done crafting by 11:15 so that we can get home and I get properly adjusted for the day's important event... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: So glad to hear that all is well! My wife wants me to take her to a craft show on Saturday - I told her she's getting out of bed early, because we'll be done crafting by 11:15 so that we can get home and I get properly adjusted for the day's important event... I would give my left arm to trade Saturdays with you, and I hate craft shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Picked a hell of an afternoon to take off and go to the apple orchard (Hollabuaghs). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Picked a hell of an afternoon to take off and go to the apple orchard (Hollabuaghs). I took my wife to the orchard last Friday - absolutely perfect day, and it wasn't crowded. So far she's made muffins, a pie, apple sauce and apple crisp...we still have apples coming out of our fannies... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was gung ho on this up until yesterday and am still wondering now. What was a 32 Tue Am here is now a 37-40 Tue Am on the latest GFS. Same with Euro and CMC. Seems the progs are having issues determining the real press of cold air as they have vacillated back and forth for days now. We did have the night earlier this week that went way under modeled forecasts so... Nothing scientific...this is where I say "I think" - it seems in general that during our cooler months of the year, temps always seem to be overdone on the colder side in the mid to long range, and then start modifying as time gets closer. When was the last time it was modeled to get to say 10 degrees 7 days out and it actually ended up even colder than that? Much more often it seems like it ends up around 18-20 instead of 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 .71 rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Nothing scientific...this is where I say "I think" - it seems in general that during our cooler months of the year, temps always seem to be overdone on the colder side in the mid to long range, and then start modifying as time gets closer. When was the last time it was modeled to get to say 10 degrees 7 days out and it actually ended up even colder than that? Much more often it seems like it ends up around 18-20 instead of 10. I would full agree with this. The times it seems to get colder than modeled are one-off surprises like this week vs. trending colder. I fear I waste a lot of typing talking about cold spells that moderate. I posted some 4-5 days ago about the chance of a hard freeze next week and now the zones say lows of 36 and 37 (and backed by the globals). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 .45" it appears so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Nothing scientific...this is where I say "I think" - it seems in general that during our cooler months of the year, temps always seem to be overdone on the colder side in the mid to long range, and then start modifying as time gets closer. When was the last time it was modeled to get to say 10 degrees 7 days out and it actually ended up even colder than that? Much more often it seems like it ends up around 18-20 instead of 10. Its undeniably true. Just remember that even modified temps can yield the results most of us want. Not sure who called for a hard freeze. I just looked back thru saturday and didnt see it. But maybe I'm dizzy from my last fall. NBD ( I was 20 feet up a tree last weekend tho ) While only a limited view, and one of the models known to run warmer than depicted, here is last few runs for GFS in 24 hr increments. I picked 18z for "warmest" temps. Even if they warm by a few degrees, this still likely gets it done for favored locals (with latest timestamp trending colder). All things aside, you have a better chance of winning when betting on the hot hand, but there's enough continuity for this one to have legs, and its well into the mid range, so iI guess we'll see. I dont care if I end up being right....not why I'm here...but I do care about snow, and for some, this isnt trending away.....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 .44 in the rain gauge. Hope it will be snow gauge soon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 13, 2022 Author Share Posted October 13, 2022 Partly Sunny/Partly Cloudy over here and up to 69. Maybe raise the stakes a bit for atmosphere destabilization. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Sun broke out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Still Cloudy here 63 outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, canderson said: Sun broke out here. are you in Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I wonder how much will actually fall with the squall line - seems like while it might rain quite hard in some places, not sure it rains long enough to pull off those amounts. I’m guessing around 0.50” Seems we’re always getting short changed on the rain predictions. Predictions was originally 1-2” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: are you in Florida? Cloudy here but satellite loop suggest a brief window for brightening skies before frontal passage as Bubbles alluded to earlier. Not sure the window is large enough to do much, but we'll find out in a few. I have .26 in the bucket, and would be surprised if we crack more than .75 total for the event. Still alright by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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