ldub23 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Can we please fast forward to winter ? Summer and Autumn are boring Boring this year for sure. Hurricane season 2023 will live on in peoples memories for years to come. Mark that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 53 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Boring this year for sure. Hurricane season 2023 will live on in peoples memories for years to come. Mark that down. Seems like the active and quiet years go in cycles. We had a nice stretch of active years. This might be the start of a quiet stretch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Can we fast forward to winter? What a boring season this is.A boring season is a good seasonSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Can we please fast forward to winter ? Summer and Autumn are boring I have a feeling that winter won't be that exciting in most of hurricane country. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 What are y'all talking about? It's been an active September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 What are y'all talking about? It's been an active September.We don't have a CONUS major hurricane so season canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 32 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What are y'all talking about? It's been an active September. 0/3/3 on September 18 with nothing else on the models through the end of the month is a tad above average in number of hurricanes and a tad below average in number of named storms. I wouldn't call that "active". Not to mention the uninteresting paths of all three. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 0/3/3 on September 18 with nothing else on the models through the end of the month is a tad above average in number of hurricanes and a tad below average in number of named storms. I wouldn't call that "active". Not to mention the uninteresting paths of all three. Puerto Rico getting hit with Fiona counts as uninteresting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 GFS ensembles have random Caribbean and Gulf storms through the first few days of October, but the amount of East Pac activity the GFS and Euro ensembles have been showing tends to suggest nothing soon down there. Bermuda sees enough hurricanes that they are hardened, a Fiona hit in Canada as a 930s to 950s hybrid is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 18, 2022 Author Share Posted September 18, 2022 20 hours ago, cptcatz said: 0/3/3 on September 18 with nothing else on the models through the end of the month is a tad above average in number of hurricanes and a tad below average in number of named storms. I wouldn't call that "active". With 12 days still to go, Sept is far from a done deal after Fiona, which itself may become a MH. Keep in mind that as recently as September 10th (just 4 days before the Fiona TC formed on 9/14), people here including myself were considering the possibility of no new TC through 9/20 based on then still very quiet models as even the precursor to Fiona was temporarily quieter. Furthermore, the models including EPS are now making some late Sept W Car noise largely from the AEW now near 43W. Especially with the W Car peak season climo already getting started by then, a TC there then wouldn't be the least bit surprising. On 9/10, even Andy Hazelton said this: "Not a whole lot to look at at the climo peak of hurricane season, behind #Earl. 95L fizzled due to shear. The low riding wave is struggling with SAL (EPS refuses to give up on it but color me skeptical). The proverbial #nextwave coming off is already trending weaker on models." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 20 hours ago, Hoosier said: Puerto Rico getting hit with Fiona counts as uninteresting? I don't mean to downplay the catastrophic flooding that is occuring in Puerto Rico but from an armchair meteorologist perspective, flooding isn't that interesting to me. Hurricanes interest me because of the wind. I eagerly await Josh's videos, but honestly an 85 mph cat 1 strike isn't the most interesting. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Dead season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 If Florida Panhandle storm forms as modelled, we really can't be completely @ldub23depressing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 5 hours ago, cptcatz said: I don't mean to downplay the catastrophic flooding that is occuring in Puerto Rico but from an armchair meteorologist perspective, flooding isn't that interesting to me. Hurricanes interest me because of the wind. I eagerly await Josh's videos, but honestly an 85 mph cat 1 strike isn't the most interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 5 hours ago, cptcatz said: I don't mean to downplay the catastrophic flooding that is occuring in Puerto Rico but from an armchair meteorologist perspective, flooding isn't that interesting to me. Hurricanes interest me because of the wind. I eagerly await Josh's videos, but honestly an 85 mph cat 1 strike isn't the most interesting. A combo of storm surge & inland flooding is what causes the most damage and kills the most people. If you're interested in wind then look at tornadoes as only Cat 4-5 storms will produce anything close to an average twister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: A combo of storm surge & inland flooding is what causes the most damage and kills the most people. If you're interested in wind then look at tornadoes as only Cat 4-5 storms will produce anything close to an average twister. I love watching tornado videos. But there's a big difference between tornado coverage and hurricane coverage. You can't get inside a tornado. You can get inside a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 I love watching tornado videos. But there's a big difference between tornado coverage and hurricane coverage. You can't get inside a tornado. You can get inside a hurricane.You try telling that to guys like Reed and Pecos HankSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Has anyone else ever read over this before? http://gtbacp.com/presentations/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Have a feeling banter will get busy in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Just a casual observer to the Tropical threads, but I have noted a sharp decrease in activity from ldub. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 This second post just proves my first post so well. Only two days ago models were pointing at no more storms on the horizon and September ending with 0/3/3 (the 5am NHC forecast on Sunday did not forecast Fiona to be a MH). Only two days later, we are sitting at 1/3/4, with another likely MH forming next week in the Caribbean, and possibly another TS forming near Africa, and could be ending the month at 2/4/6. Just goes to show how crap the models are at medium/long range cyclogenesis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy? That's an extremely big ask, especially for something so small in scale like TCG. The best approach (which many DO NOT take) is to wait and see before making grand nonsensical statements calling a season dead. Not calling you out cptcatz at all, just saying a statement in general. Oh and I'll also mention Idub should get the screename change to iWeenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 5 hours ago, AChilders said: Has anyone else ever read over this before? http://gtbacp.com/presentations/Project_Phoenix_Scenario_Info.pdf Major disasters and worst case scenarios are exercised regularly. Nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, Normandy said: Why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy? That's an extremely big ask, especially for something so small in scale like TCG. The best approach (which many DO NOT take) is to wait and see before making grand nonsensical statements calling a season dead. Not calling you out cptcatz at all, just saying a statement in general. Oh and I'll also mention Idub should get the screename change to iWeenie. It's an interesting conversation. Your question of why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy could be answered with "why shouldn't they?" These models are run on some of the largest supercomputers in the world using so many data points from satelites, balloons, airplanes, bouys, etc., and they still can't figure out what's happening in only a few days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 They have a pretty great handle a few days (3 or less) out. But to expect them to predict a tropical cyclone will form five days out? Thats a big ask IMO. Would like a promets thoughts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 2 hours ago, cptcatz said: It's an interesting conversation. Your question of why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy could be answered with "why shouldn't they?" These models are run on some of the largest supercomputers in the world using so many data points from satelites, balloons, airplanes, bouys, etc., and they still can't figure out what's happening in only a few days? Yes. And it took decades of patient effort and billions of dollars/euros to get that good. Predicting weather is just inherently difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Here's hoping 98L doesn't become Hurricane "Ian". I can't stand these "I" names. Last year's "Ida" could've easily been Hurricane "Julian" which was much cooler sounding than "Ida". If 98L is destined to be a memorable storm, I'm hoping for "Hermine" or "Julia" or "Karl". Not another freaking "I" storm. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 On 9/22/2022 at 9:23 AM, Floydbuster said: Here's hoping 98L doesn't become Hurricane "Ian". I can't stand these "I" names. Last year's "Ida" could've easily been Hurricane "Julian" which was much cooler sounding than "Ida". If 98L is destined to be a memorable storm, I'm hoping for "Hermine" or "Julia" or "Karl". Not another freaking "I" storm. Please. Tough cookies mate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Obviously some of this "I" curse stuff is merely the result of the vagaries in timing of giving names. Hermine was literally named 6 hours earlier lol. But regardless of that fact, its a bit crazy that 3 of the last 6 "I" storms have made U.S. landfall at Cat 4 strength (Irma, Ida, Ian) Ironically also exists due to an "I" storm (Ike). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 We all thought that 2022 would be like 2013 all over again, boy we were so wrong. My other weather forum did 2013 comparisons until Earl/Fiona/Gaston/Hermine/Ian combo came and produced over 60 ACE combined! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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