GaWx Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 With the main forecasting thread now filled with 75%+ whining, I thought it would be good to try a separate thread for things like whining, banter, and preferences on getting hit to clear up the main thread somewhat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 What a borefest so far 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 33 minutes ago, cptcatz said: What a borefest so far That is some of the finest whining I have ever seen!!... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Can I whine about there not being many whiney posts so far in this thread??? I am disappointed! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 If the hurricanes don't hit they do NOT EXIST! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Normandy said: If the hurricanes don't hit they do NOT EXIST! Are existential questions even allowed in a thread dedicated to whining??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 You know it has been a quiet season when people post" the 384 hour GFS looks good". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Are existential questions even allowed in a thread dedicated to whining??? I think it is a good post for here because this isn't just for whining, but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, Normandy said: If the hurricanes don't hit they do NOT EXIST! As I mentioned in the other thread, are hurricanes that don't hit any different than the great red spot on Jupiter? I would say not really... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 There almost seems to have been a shut off to the tropical wave train off Africa during July. You know how they come off far north, or hit a wall or shear, or fizzle into big ugly gyres? I didn't expect that pattern and I'm surprised it occurred. If they were moving faster and further south, they'd have a chance. Like the wave off Africa now, it seems to be stuck. What the hell is that about? Why isn't it progressing west at 15 mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 ^As a non-met, what I have noticed is that the waves that come off are embedded within outrageous westerly flow.....thus they are basically getting sucked backwards by the wave behind them. Would be interested to hear a pro-met chime in on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Everything this season is a struggle. We have a hurricane in an extremely favorable environment that seemed to fend off shear for days sitting with a pressure of 961 and a recon mission that failed to find surface winds much above 65 kts…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 How can people root for hurricanes to strike land and all the damage and suffering that comes with that? As far as I'm concerned, this has been a blessing of a hurricane season so far. Count up the ACE but keep the threats away from the US and other land for that matter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Do we have to do the morality thing......again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Pretty amazing how boring the 336 hour GEFS happy hour run of September 8 is. The only little interesting thing I see are the handful of members rising up from the western Caribbean heading towards Cuba/Florida. Could be a sign of what's to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, Normandy said: Do we have to do the morality thing......again? You want to see people's lives ruined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Its an interesting question..."Do I want to see people's lives ruined". If you ask me that on its face, then the answer is no. But I do want to see a hurricane hit land so I can see videos like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs on a fundamental level, that is a video of people's lives getting ruined.....and I enjoy watching it. If you say you don't.....I would say you are being disingenuous. So I posit the question back to you: Do you want to see people's lives ruined? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 34 minutes ago, Normandy said: Its an interesting question..."Do I want to see people's lives ruined". If you ask me that on its face, then the answer is no. But I do want to see a hurricane hit land so I can see videos like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs on a fundamental level, that is a video of people's lives getting ruined.....and I enjoy watching it. If you say you don't.....I would say you are being disingenuous. So I posit the question back to you: Do you want to see people's lives ruined? Bro get help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 I hope 95L becomes Fiona, even briefly. I don't like the name and I want to move on to Gaston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 336 GEFS with random members in the SW Caribbean developing is probably noise. ECENS have about 20% of members showing something near/North of the Caribbean moving W to NW a week from Monday, an ECUSA storm isn't completely impossible. Maybe not likely, but not completely impossible. Euro weeklies look dead, although 9-25 to 10-3 pressures are below average in the Gulf and mid October rainfall is forecast above average in the Caribbean. The good news, looking at a few sites, ENSO heads for neutral late Winter/Spring. I don't know how the cool ENSO kept a lid on the season, with the EPAC activity, it felt like a warm ENSO, but if it goes neutral, next season can't be any worse. Unless we are moving into a multi-decadal 70s to early 90s quiet period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 In this age of increasing climate change persistence often wins out. Usually once an overall pattern sets up it is difficult for the pattern to change/breakdown for any length of time.. At times there may a change that lasts for a bit but then the pattern reverts back. As we head deeper into the fall we need to keep an eye out for any signs of a real permanent change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 There’s always November. Maybe the weirds will score on a Frankenstein storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Basin sucks. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Basin sucks. That is all. Have to hope for homegrowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 A couple weeks ago, making a factual assessment of what the Atlantic looks like today and going forward 10 days would probably have been considered banter. Season is on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Have to hope for homegrowns Earl flopping hurts but I still think my forecast will be fine at the end of the day. Homebrew region needs to produce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: A couple weeks ago, making a factual assessment of what the Atlantic looks like today and going forward 10 days would probably have been considered banter. Season is on life support Very weird for a La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Op GFS 250 mb winds change over the next two weeks, but the usual state through that period is hostile shear. There does appear a window, as far as shear goes, for favorable conditions in the BoC and SW Caribbean next week, but the Northern Gulf remains hostile. in 9 days, maybe shear is reduced in the E. Gulf to be marginal. But nothing looks obvious, and any GEFS with lows in the Gulf in the next 10 days are probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 14 hours ago, Normandy said: Its an interesting question..."Do I want to see people's lives ruined". If you ask me that on its face, then the answer is no. But I do want to see a hurricane hit land so I can see videos like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs on a fundamental level, that is a video of people's lives getting ruined.....and I enjoy watching it. If you say you don't.....I would say you are being disingenuous. So I posit the question back to you: Do you want to see people's lives ruined? If you enjoy watching it, then there's plenty of old videos to watch. Why do you want to see new hurricanes hitting land and causing more damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 I’ve been through the eye or eyewall of: Alex (Nags Head, Cat 2) Arthur (Morehead City, Cat 2) Charley (Nags Head, Cat 1 weakening to TS) Dorian (Morehead City, Cat 1) Fran (Raleigh, Cat 1 in Raleigh Cat 3 at landfall) Ophelia (Morehead City, Cat 1) Dennis (Nags Head, Cat 2) Florence (Jacksonville, Cat 1 with strong Cat 2 gusts. Not technically eyewall but the wind field was incredibly broad) In every one of these besides Arthur, family experienced significant property damage and in all except Dorian, we were left without power for many days. Damage included partial roof loss- Dennis, Florence Water Damage from wind/rain- Florence, Dorian, Dennis, Fran, Ophelia, Alex Tree Damage/lost trees- Fran, Dorian, Ophelia Lost Dock- Florence, Dennis, Ophelia Mathew, Floyd, Isabel, Irene, Bertha also all hit family property causing damage, but I did not ride out those storms in the impact zone as the others. I have experience numerous TS and former hurricane impacts. Michael was incredibly damaging at our family farms and we were without power multiple days even though it hit the gulf, for instance. NC may not get powerful hurricanes, but if you live or own property on the coast, you have weathered more storms in recent years than any other spot in the country. My point for all this- I am obsessed with hurricanes, even though my life is rooted in the middle of a hurricane hotspot. Almost every year we take some level of damage. We have had taken 100’s of thousands of $$$ of property loss and years of repairs from these storms. I’ve held onto the corner of our roof to keep it from flying off while we made repairs in the middle of a storm (Dennis). That being said, it’s a blessing I have gotten to experience the above storms. Each one is a special memory that I physically got to experience that raw power first hand. Was I happy for the damage? Absolutely not. I hope no one has to deal with storm damage. It sucks. Florence’s rain and wind forced water into every nook and cranny it could fit. Water damage is nefarious and can take years, and has taken years, to remedy. But was the roar of the wind, the power and ferocity of the gusts, the sounds of breaking, crashing, roaring and the buildup worth it? Absolutely. I don’t wish natural disaster on anyone, but it’s something you live with in hurricane areas. No amount of morality is going to wish these storms away, you can only prepare. That argument is absolutely absurd to me. Yes, I enjoyed every hurricane experience, even the damaging ones. There are so many positives too from hurricanes. After Fran, my neighborhood banded together, sharing food, ice chainsaws, batteries and anything else you needed as we were literally stranded for 3-4 days and without power almost 2 weeks. Those days were some of our best memories, despite the destruction around us. If you’ve ever been in one of those storm aftermath situations, you know what I’m talking about. Hurricanes and their destruction are a way of life here, and many other costal areas. As a weather nerd, no one posting on here can’t say they wouldn’t want to experience the power of one firsthand. Watching videos is absolutely nothing compared to 1 minute of actual hurricane force wind and the experience it brings. No I don’t want my property wiped off the planet, no I don’t want the damage, and I especially do not want the deaths that comes from these storms, but have I enjoyed my experiences in them? Absolutely. Do I enjoy a storm overhead more than I look looking at radar images of one going OTS? Absolutely. It’s one of those things you cannot control, but that weather weenie inside you always hopes to experience the power of these storms in person, despite knowing the consequences and having experienced them firsthand 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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