Winter 2022-23 Discussion

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Use this

Sure it can go there from now on, now that it is explained, but don't go deleting everything from here. People deserve to know the truth about why he isn't a mod and why me and others aren't posting here

[Stebo]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

sounds like we need a mod.

i’ll volunteer.


.

They don't like volunteers, I volunteered months ago, and was suggested by Alek, along with you. Neither of us were made mod.

[Hoosier]

Volunteering only worked once I think.  Baroclinic instability

[Chambana]

Very interested to see what this triple dip La Niña will bring, it’s been discussed several times here about 2000-2001 and the bitter cold and snowy December. Would be a dramatic shift from the weather we are having now and the extended looking mild, should we make a dramatic shift to cold next month. 
 

1975 featured a warm November followed with a warm December, so perhaps we follow that analog? Would be par for the course the last 10 years to have a very mild December. 

[hardypalmguy]

Time to make me a mod.  Winter discussion involves sunshine, palm trees and margaritas.

[Malacka11]

Anyone want to bet with me that Chicago will receive its first 2in+ snowfall before the end of November

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Chambana said:

Very interested to see what this triple dip La Niña will bring, it’s been discussed several times here about 2000-2001 and the bitter cold and snowy December. Would be a dramatic shift from the weather we are having now and the extended looking mild, should we make a dramatic shift to cold next month. 
 

1975 featured a warm November followed with a warm December, so perhaps we follow that analog? Would be par for the course the last 10 years to have a very mild December. 

I'd have to double check but I don't think Dec 1975 was that warm.  It was at least more serviceable tempwise than some of the garbage we have seen lately in Dec.

[michsnowfreak]

Last November was colder than normal but November 2020 was warmer than normal. Just because it's a triple dip nina doesnt mean it's gonna follow up specific pattern.  Regarding 1975-76, December '75 was colder than average here with a lot of snow. November was very warm.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last November was colder than normal but November 2020 was warmer than normal. Just because it's a triple dip nina doesnt mean it's gonna follow up specific pattern.  Regarding 1975-76, December '75 was colder than average here with a lot of snow. November was very warm.

The triple dip thing is interesting in that it doesn't happen much, but I feel that one can get too caught up in that.  I think 2nd year Ninas can be worthwhile to look at because that means that the Nina has already been established for quite a while.  But a complicating factor is that sometimes the ENSO episode is not well-coupled with the atmosphere, let alone all the other factors that come into play.  That's why seasonal forecasting is challenging.  So many things can happen.  Anybody who has like a 70-80% success rate with it is elite in my book.

[sbnwx85]

I went back and looked...sure enough last November was cooler than average. The beginning of the month had a few nice, sunny days which is probably what I'm remembering. I also remember leaves still being on the trees in mid-November while snow was falling...probably leading me to believe the beginning of the month was warm.

[RogueWaves]

Starting the month with all this fantastic wx reminds me a lot of 2010. I'll have to look back to see when exactly that extended warmth finally caved to more seasonable temps. Dec '09, '10, and '12 all featured strong bliz's, and treated mby best to worst in that same order. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Starting the month with all this fantastic wx reminds me a lot of 2010. I'll have to look back to see when exactly that extended warmth finally caved to more seasonable temps. Dec '09, '10, and '12 all featured strong bliz's, and treated mby best to worst in that same order. 

November is a tough one because on the one hand, I'm super ready for snow, but on the other hand we've had this trend the past decade or so that snowy november's yield mild December's and vice versa. So based on that I'm OK waiting a little longer

[luckyweather]

November is a tough one because on the one hand, I'm super ready for snow, but on the other hand we've had this trend the past decade or so that snowy november's yield mild December's and vice versa. So based on that I'm OK waiting a little longer

This. Trend has not been our friend past several years. A little cautious optimism that we’re at least starting out differently.

Justin Berk/ east coast tv met said this a few days ago:

“Yes, I have a love for snow, but work hard to keep my bias out of my forecasting. What I have learned is that early cold often leads to a mild start to winter. So a mild start to November may very well allow that cold to build elsewhere and reach us when the time is right. “

Judah is Judah but worth noting he’s got some cautious optimism also with progged Ural blocking getting the PV going places.

[RogueWaves]

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

November is a tough one because on the one hand, I'm super ready for snow, but on the other hand we've had this trend the past decade or so that snowy november's yield mild December's and vice versa. So based on that I'm OK waiting a little longer

Totally with ya on that. Been trying to decide what was DTW's best Dec of say the last 50 yrs. I know '74 had a huge total courtesy of the #3 all-time storm to kick off the month, but I'm pretty fond of '81 as the final 10 days right through the holidays had fresh and fairly deep snow cover. The primary storm track in '81-82 was ideal for west side of Detroit and it repeated over and over. '13-14 had the unfortunately timed pull-back right during Christmas week. It's one and only blemish to be fair.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Totally with ya on that. Been trying to decide what was DTW's best Dec of say the last 50 yrs. I know '74 had a huge total courtesy of the #3 all-time storm to kick off the month, but I'm pretty fond of '81 as the final 10 days right through the holidays had fresh and fairly deep snow cover. The primary storm track in '81-82 was ideal for west side of Detroit and it repeated over and over. '13-14 had the unfortunately timed pull-back right during Christmas week. It's one and only blemish to be fair.

1974, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2017

[RCNYILWX]

Will be making the annual return to more frequent posting soon. Been a crazy 6 months personally (house stuff). Encouraged by the generally persistent ridging up near Alaska shown on the ENS data. No black hole PV in that area is a good sign for the season.

Warm Novembers in La Niñas since 1950 that were driven by a strong positive +EPO were more prone to featuring a predominantly ++EPO and AN to well AN temps in DJF. Even if this month ends up AN due to the very warm start, it will have been driven by a strong-PNA and southeast ridging to start the month.

The decent northeast Pacific pattern progged in the ensembles backing up what the seasonal/weekly models showed for November at h5 leaves me feeling more glass half full rather than glass half empty.

[A-L-E-K]

Goated^

[Baum]

^ confirmed

[buckeye]

We will challenge our record today which was previously set Nov 6 1977.

Therefore my official winter analog is 77-78

[michsnowfreak]

On 11/5/2022 at 9:35 AM, buckeye said:

We will challenge our record today which was previously set Nov 6 1977.

Therefore my official winter analog is 77-78

Obviously this was in jest but quite a few great winters had big warm spells in November.

[Hoosier]

Rooting for Roger Smith

 

26 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

This forecast (as always with me) is based on a study of index values for presumed similar external drivers. Also what's somewhat different about my approach is that you just get a long-range forecast, no graphics about this, that or the other. 

My basic forecast is a rather average outcome, perhaps a bit on the snowy side of normal for many eastern and central locations, with severe cold intrusions possible at all times due to conditions already developing in the west-central subarctic. 

So in general, would expect much of the time to average within 5-8 deg of normal with brief much colder intervals possible, in eastern and central regions. Western regions will feel the impact of the cold spells as is already evident, more frequently and for longer intervals. 

There is potential for some very severe or extreme storm events this winter. Energy levels are ranked in the highest 10%, especially around dates of new and full moons. These severe storms could provide blizzards in some cases, most likely to affect the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, but not ruling out the northeast or even mid-Atlantic states.

West coast rainfalls will likely be above normal in parts of central and northern CA, Oregon, WA and sw BC but a colder than average regime may cut off some rainfalls turning them to snow as part of expected above normal snowfalls inland WA and much of BC. This snow anomaly will probably extend southeast into the central Rockies with the storm track often running OR-sUT-nNM before recurving. 

Some analogue years have had very mild spells in winter (east, central) and brief cold spells, but those managed to deliver on heavy snowfall events from few opportunities. I think this winter will tend to run closer to a balance of mild and cold and more frequent opportunities for snow. 

If any of the three winter months is to be much colder than average, I would pick December as most likely. 

Good luck to all who dare to issue these outlooks. I've been reading others and felt there was perhaps enough of a difference with mine to add it to the mix, although I see certain overlaps with some of them too. 

[RogueWaves]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Rooting for Roger Smith

 

Considering Lk Michigan was under 2 Storm Warnings inside of 3 wks, I'm liking his odds on strong events in the GLs

[michsnowfreak]

I have been hearing the 2010-11 analog thrown around a lot. Which is not a bad thing.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have been hearing the 2010-11 analog thrown around a lot. Which is not a bad thing.

I'd like the version where we don't have to watch the EC rake Big Dog after Big Dog 

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I'd like the version where we don't have to watch the EC rake Big Dog after Big Dog 

 I don't remember what happened on the East Coast I just know we had 70" of snow

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I don't remember what happened on the East Coast I just know we had 70" of snow

I think that was the year they had the big Boxing Day storm.  Other than that, I don't remember much.

[RogueWaves]

48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think that was the year they had the big Boxing Day storm.  Other than that, I don't remember much.

iirc, they had 4 storms in a row and when GHD-1 was first coming into discussions, it was progged to be #5. Couple days later the track was shifted back to the MW which actually stuck. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

iirc, they had 4 storms in a row and when GHD-1 was first coming into discussions, it was progged to be #5. Couple days later the track was shifted back to the MW which actually stuck. 

I checked NYC just as an example and they did have multiple good storms.  20" in the Boxing Day storm, then a good storm around the middle of January 2011 and a big one toward the end of the month.

[WestMichigan]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have been hearing the 2010-11 analog thrown around a lot. Which is not a bad thing.

I'd take that also.  Snowed right after Christmas and didn't see bare grass again until beginning of March.

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I'd take that also.  Snowed right after Christmas and didn't see bare grass again until beginning of March.

There was a snowstorm Dec 11th. The ground was covered basically from then to early March with 2 brief periods of avdew says bare (late Dec and mid-late feb).