Winter 2022-23 Discussion

[Harry]

Any time I think of 3rd year Nina's I think of 2000-2001. Thing with that was it started off great but crapped out after the new year. December saw many snowfall records fall that still hold to this day. Even November around here set the record for snowiest Nov that still holds to this day. My thoughts had been and remain that if the winter stuff got going early in the month it would go till Jan and then perhaps fade out much like 00-01 but if it waited till later in the month it would hold till March.. We'll see. Wanna see that shitty nnw/n flow bs go away first along with a favorable storm track. 

[Harry]

Right now I'll take the 70+ stuff we had today over the crap we are looking at this weekend. Yes as I get older I am favoring warmer. Ofcourse cold by itself has never done anything for me anyways.. 

[buckeye]

14 hours ago, Harry said:

Right now I'll take the 70+ stuff we had today over the crap we are looking at this weekend. Yes as I get older I am favoring warmer. Ofcourse cold by itself has never done anything for me anyways.. 

Me too.  My body doesn't handle cold like it use to.  Every winter I start to understand more and more why people move south after retirement.   Of course I still love a good snow if I'm going to be in this climo anyways.

[josh_4184]

 

LES belts look to get hammered through through the weekend. Pretty strong / entertaining AFD from APX. Map just through Friday morning

Quote

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 1028 PM EST Tue Nov 15 2022

High impact lake effect snow is expected to develop Thursday and
into Friday, particularly across northwest lower.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...

An impressive longwave centered over Hudson Bay continues to provide
a deep layer of cold air over the eastern two thirds of North
America. On Thursday morning, an embedded shortwave traversing the
Upper Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes will provide
a period of subtle shortwave induced ascent across northern
Michigan. With weak flow centered overhead, a boundary oriented from
NW to SE will traverse the area, providing the convective initiation
for lake enhanced instability along the Lake Michigan shores early
on Thursday. This boundary will pivot to a more west-to-east
orientation across the Tip of the Mitt and into the Straits,
providing a focus point for repeated rounds of lake effect
convection across northwestern Michigan. This boundary will pivot
southward, which will bring in a more pronounced W to WSW flow, and
thus will continue the process of lake effect instability being
advected inland across northwest Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Dangerous commute conditions at times
created by rapidly falling visibilities and heavy snowfall both
Thursday and Friday.

The day on Thursday will largely start on the calm side, with
perhaps some flurries or pockets of light snow across the Grand
Traverse Bay area. As the day progresses, the aforementioned
boundary will move into the area and initiate snow showers along the
Lake Michigan shore that will spread ENE across the CWA. Just
looking at soundings, with low level lapse rates possibly exceeding
8 degrees C/km, this will be conducive for the development of
locally intense snow squalls spreading across areas south of M-55 in
the afternoon, which can lead to rapid drops in visibility and quick
accumulations on roadways, which may lead to dangerous conditions on
area roads and expressways. Farther north, as this boundary pivots
and turns more west-to-east, weak flow coupled with lake heating
processes will allow for the potential repeated development of
mesolows across northern Lake Michigan, which will slowly move
inland later in the day on Thursday. If these mesolows can develop,
they will be capable of producing impressive snowfall rates, perhaps
is excess of 2"/hr in the best developed bands. This too will lead
to rapidly falling visibilities across the Grand Traverse Bay
region, the Tip of the Mitt, and potentially northward across the
Straits. Make no mistake about it, the timing of this could coincide
with the evening commute, along with those traveling northward for
the first weekend of hunting season, which is a recipe for
significantly slowed and even dangerous commuting across northern
lower and parts of eastern upper Michigan Thursday afternoon into
the evening.

Looking into Friday, the boundary will drop south, and
will lead to the redevelopment of westerly to WSW flow into the
afternoon. The result will be the re-establishment of lake effect
snow from far southern Mackinac County and down the shores of Lake
Michigan to Manistee. There is the possibility that more dominant
banding develops late Friday as flow becomes more steady -- most
likely targeting the Straits and Little Traverse Bay areas where
lake fetch would be maximized.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2022

Long Term: (Friday night through Wednesday)

High Impact Weather Potential: High. Growing potential for winter
storm warning criteria amounts and snowfall rates of 1"/hr or higher
at times across portions of northern Michigan this weekend.

Sharp cyclonic upper-level flow overhead will persist through the
weekend as a strong wave pivots across the Great Lakes. Potent
forcing aloft will develop a cyclone over Saskatchewan that is
expected to race across the far northern Great Lakes/southern
Ontario in the Saturday night/Sunday timeframe. As mentioned in the
impact statement, confidence continues to grow in a high-impact
winter weather event across portions of northern Michigan continuing
from Friday through this weekend. For this period, impacts will be
broken into two parts: 1.) Continued heavy W/WSW lake effect into
Saturday and 2.) Frontal passage late Saturday/early Sunday shifting
to NW lake effect into Monday.

As alluded to in the short term discussion, at least some level of
organization is expected in ongoing lake effect activity Friday
evening. Current confidence is that a strong band of westerly lake
effect will gradually pivot with increasingly WSW flow into
Saturday, helping to spread heavy snowfall amounts from the M-32
corridor up to the bridge, extending as far east as M-33. The most
intense snowfall is expected to be downstream of Little Traverse Bay
where snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr cannot be ruled out. Forecast
soundings display an impressive environment in place with nearly dry
adiabatic lapse rates and saturation extending through the depth of
the troposphere. With forcing through the DGZ, large flake sizes and
efficient snowfall is anticipated with any activity -- especially
within dominant banding. Thus, it would be no surprise to see double-
digit snowfall totals, rapid drops in visibility, and dangerous
travel at times across the aforementioned area from Friday evening
into Saturday.

As a front crosses the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday,
enhanced snowfall within SW flow ahead of the boundary looks to
bring additional accumulations to portions of eastern upper before a
transition to typical NW lake effect sets in for Sunday. Impressive
profiles look to remain in place through the rest of the weekend,
bringing similar snow amount and impact concerns to the typical NW
flow belts for Sunday. This is especially true with any dominant
bands that develop as efficient snowfall is anticipated with the
environment in place. All things considered, it is not out of the
question for localized areas that experience multiple rounds of snow
late this week through the weekend to get snowfall totals in excess
of 24" by Monday.

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Balling in BUF. Going to be wild out there

 

Once this band sets up, it will remain fairly stationary late
Thursday night and through the day Friday with the synoptic pattern
forcing a general southwest flow. The strong convergence leading to
impressive omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ
and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet will
allow this band of snow oriented along the long axis of the lake to
become very strong with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour.

Seeing how this narrow, intense band of snow will not oscillate much
later Thursday night and through Friday and into Friday night
snowfall totals will easily reach several feet this period. The
highest totals may very well end up across the Buffalo Metro area,
including downtown and towards the airport where a 240 wind flow
will direct the snowband.

[BuffaloWeather]

48 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Balling in BUF. Going to be wild out there

 

Once this band sets up, it will remain fairly stationary late
Thursday night and through the day Friday with the synoptic pattern
forcing a general southwest flow. The strong convergence leading to
impressive omega values, along with deep moisture in the snow DGZ
and lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 20K feet will
allow this band of snow oriented along the long axis of the lake to
become very strong with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour.

Seeing how this narrow, intense band of snow will not oscillate much
later Thursday night and through Friday and into Friday night
snowfall totals will easily reach several feet this period. The
highest totals may very well end up across the Buffalo Metro area,
including downtown and towards the airport where a 240 wind flow
will direct the snowband.

Only through 9 am Saturday

[josh_4184]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Only through 9 am Saturday

Northern Mi LES little League, WNY LES Big League

[BuffaloWeather]

8 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Northern Mi LES little League, WNY LES Big League

Just a longer fetch with the wind direction. Accuweather going big 

[josh_4184]

32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Just a longer fetch with the wind direction. Accuweather going big 

Yea if Lake Michigan was only 200 miles wider  

[WestMichigan]

24 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea if Lake Michigan was only 200 miles wider  

Turn it sideways and we would be in business.

[josh_4184]

2 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Turn it sideways and we would be in business.

Agreed nothing good in Wisconsin anyway  

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea if Lake Michigan was only 200 miles wider  

The area off of southern Lake Michigan could possibly pull off something like Buffalo if everything lined up just right, but the main problem is duration.  Even when parameters are relatively similar to what the Buffalo area will have in the upcoming event, the wind direction just doesn't stay locked in northerly (or close to that) for long enough.

[Harry]

5 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Turn it sideways and we would be in business.

 

You still in the Grand Rapids area? For these parts this is looking to be one of the most impressive les events I have seen. Rare day when GRR has warnings flying all the way to here and or including 3rd row of counties. Ofcourse some of the models have gone into the unknown with qpf amounts ( UK/Canadian inch + ) I have never seen this far inland that I can recall? Even the normal models showing between a half inch to over .75! You are in a solid spot if you are still by Grand Rapids? 

[michsnowfreak]

41 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

You still in the Grand Rapids area? For these parts this is looking to be one of the most impressive les events I have seen. Rare day when GRR has warnings flying all the way to here and or including 3rd row of counties. Ofcourse some of the models have gone into the unknown with qpf amounts ( UK/Canadian inch + ) I have never seen this far inland that I can recall? Even the normal models showing between a half inch to over .75! You are in a solid spot if you are still by Grand Rapids? 

Jealous Harry. Good luck!

[michsnowfreak]

Larry Cosgrove:

Maybe a ten day break from the widespread cold. But a look at the formative ridging around and above the Arctic Circle suggests a return to prolonged, full-latitude cAk (bitter cold) by the end of the first week of December.

You would be hard pressed to use the word warm today, except perhaps in southern Florida or coastal California. And truthfully, descriptions of cold weather will be in use through the weekend. But the thumb-projection blocking ridge off of the West Coast will start to break down next Monday and Tuesday, and a period of semizonal flow at 500MB should favor a relatively mild condition from the Mississippi Valley to the West Coast over a November 23 -30 time frame. I hesitate to bring the warmth all the way to the Eastern Seaboard, since a vigorous southern branch storm out of Texas and Oklahoma may out the brakes on moderation by the end of the 6-10 day time frame.

That disturbance may not fully stop the warm-up, but I can see two factors that will return the USA and Canada to the icebox as we get past the start of December. A ridge complex now In Scandinavia will begin to retrogress into Greenland (-NAO), linking with a weaker positive 500MB height anomaly over the Arctic Ocean (-AO). That will force a deep storm over the northern Pacific Basin to track eastward along the International Border into the Great Lakes. Remember the rule about cAk vortices: the closer a gyre gets to the lower 48 states, or into the nation, the deeper and more widespread the awful chill will get. If things work out as I expect them too, the period between December 7 and 21 will feature high usage of fuels and other energy sources to keep the people warm in the face of winter.

And the moisture-laden southern branch storm track will be heard from as well. Hint hint. Sleep well tonight.

[WestMichigan]

48 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

You still in the Grand Rapids area? For these parts this is looking to be one of the most impressive les events I have seen. Rare day when GRR has warnings flying all the way to here and or including 3rd row of counties. Ofcourse some of the models have gone into the unknown with qpf amounts ( UK/Canadian inch + ) I have never seen this far inland that I can recall? Even the normal models showing between a half inch to over .75! You are in a solid spot if you are still by Grand Rapids? 

Yes, I am still Just north of the Ottawa/Allegan county line.  GRR is saying 8-12 which would be a rather impressive LES event for this part of the state for sure.  Hard to keep the winds blowing the right direction that long for us to see those totals.  Looking forward to seeing how this unfolds.

[Harry]

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

Yes, I am still Just north of the Ottawa/Allegan county line.  GRR is saying 8-12 which would be a rather impressive LES event for this part of the state for sure.  Hard to keep the winds blowing the right direction that long for us to see those totals.  Looking forward to seeing how this unfolds.

 

Looking upstream etc I honestly think a foot+ is looking good for your backyard. 

Surprised there is no thread for this? 

[cyclone77]

Bills have home game Sun.  Could be a fun one.

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Bills have home game Sun.  Could be a fun

 

I was looking at that. Crazy! 3-4 feet? Makes our foot+ possible totals around here look like peanuts but still impressive for these parts. 

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Bills have home game Sun.  Could be a fun one.

Shades of the 2017 Bills-Colts Snow Bowl game.

[Harry]

Just gotta keep the flow from bending too far out of the south ..  That could be the biggest issue here. 

[WestMichigan]

3 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Looking upstream etc I honestly think a foot+ is looking good for your backyard. 

Surprised there is no thread for this? 

I sure hope you are correct.  Looking at everything I am hopeful that we will be in the foot or more range.

[RogueWaves]

13 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Northern Mi LES little League, WNY LES Big League

NOT always. Dec '95  5 feet in The Sault, Dec '01 Petoskey had 7 feet. Just harder without the snow funnel that is Lk Erie, not to mention the even warmer water temps early season. 

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

Just gotta keep the flow from bending too far out of the south ..  That could be the biggest issue here. 

That's always the issue, especially for the 2/3 of Calhoun east of BC. If GRR was more accurate (or less lazy Idk), they would use the severe wx warning cone and just issue the warning for the NW 1/3 of Calhoun. How many times did I get excited, only to be very disappointed in a more-or-less false headline for Marshall area. 

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

I sure hope you are correct.  Looking at everything I am hopeful that we will be in the foot or more range.

It's pretty telling that even S Lansing (6+) and W Eaton (8+) have that much on their map. Places like Plainwell-Otsego may rake with this one. Dec '90 my former in-laws got 27" there in 2 days. 

[josh_4184]

7 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

NOT always. Dec '95  5 feet in The Sault, Dec '01 Petoskey had 7 feet. Just harder without the snow funnel that is Lk Erie, not to mention the even warmer water temps early season. 

For Petoskey event what 850 flow was that predominantly? SSW? SSW for my area is minimal  impact. Need a NW or WNW.

[josh_4184]

Latest HHR pretty bullish for my area 25"+

 

est HHR pretty bullish for my area 25"+

 

[RogueWaves]

10 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

For Petoskey event what 850 flow was that predominantly? SSW? SSW for my area is minimal  impact. Need a NW or WNW.

I know that, but your post said N Mich, not yby. I was just citing LES events when some places in NMI had those crazy totals KBUF is used to. Most events, sh*t's way too transient. Best bet is Lk Superior to Lk Michigan fire hose. There's been a couple in the last decade iirc. 

[RogueWaves]

10 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Latest HHR pretty bullish for my area 25"+

 

est HHR pretty bullish for my area 25"+

 

I'd wager a bunch of bitcoins that 4" it shows reaching mby here in W Detroit never happens. I think it was the HRRR that was throwing around insane amounts for Chicago burbs just the other day. Difference here for WMI is ofc this is legit arctic front incoming. 

[josh_4184]

15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I know that, but your post said N Mich, not yby. I was just citing LES events when some places in NMI had those crazy totals KBUF is used to. Most events, sh*t's way too transient. Best bet is Lk Superior to Lk Michigan fire hose. There's been a couple in the last decade iirc. 

I was asking if the Petoskey event was a SSW I really didn't know lol only guessed.