madwx Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 12 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: just gonna ridge joe's mid range calls to big totals idk about u guys intentional typo? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 13 hours ago, tim123 said: Accuweather is all in on global warming crap. well, than they can't go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 BAMWX has spoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 BAMWX has spokeni don’t even know how one comes up with such a splotchy map, unless it’s some random ms paint drawing.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 48 minutes ago, Hoosier said: BAMWX has spoken "I'm michsnowfreak, and I approve this map." 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Congrats daddylonglegs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 The BAM map looks more like a layout of each snowfal that fell in the LOT area last snowfall season. Minus the overdo in Mchenry county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 11 hours ago, Baum said: The BAM map looks more like a layout of each snowfal that fell in the LOT area last snowfall season. Minus the overdo in Mchenry county. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Looking forward to another year of endless cutoff lows, clouds, cold, and snow until May. It’s as if it just ended not too long ago, oh wait. Maybe we’ll get a couple well above normal days each month to skew the monthly numbers and say it was above normal. No severe weather season in the spring to make winter less miserable or more than likely the rest of the year as has been the case. Summer will last a couple months if that then rinse and repeat again. Living north of the Ohio River is so enjoyable…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 4 hours ago, NTXYankee said: Looking forward to another year of endless cutoff lows, clouds, cold, and snow until May. It’s as if it just ended not too long ago, oh wait. Maybe we’ll get a couple well above normal days each month to skew the monthly numbers and say it was above normal. No severe weather season in the spring to make winter less miserable or more than likely the rest of the year as has been the case. Summer will last a couple months if that then rinse and repeat again. Living north of the Ohio River is so enjoyable…. We're getting a taste of your weather soon too, as we actually might not get out of the 60s here by early next week. As awesome as September and the first half of October has been, it's definitely too early for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 On 10/7/2022 at 4:31 AM, A-L-E-K said: Congrats daddylonglegs Where did he go? We need La Crosse reporting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2022 Author Share Posted October 20, 2022 Hot off the press 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 On 10/6/2022 at 6:28 PM, IWXwx said: "I'm michsnowfreak, and I approve this map." I do! Just wish it didn't come from BAMweather lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 20, 2022 Author Share Posted October 20, 2022 2000-01 is obviously an analog that will be floated around with it being one of the limited number of examples of a 3rd year Nina. Everybody remembers that December, which was pretty historic in some areas, but another thing I remember is how quickly that winter pretty much shut off in my area once January 2001 arrived. I went back and looked at some stats to refresh my memory about how bad things got. Chicago only received 8.2" between Jan-Apr 2001 (4.0" of which came in a March storm), which is the 4th lowest amount of snow on record during that time, and the lowest since 1949. And it's not like it became warm overall or excessively dry. Just horrid timing with it usually not being cold enough at the right time. When that crazy December was happening, I wondered if we were on the way to an incredibly snowy winter. I loved getting so much snow that month, but it just quickly flamed out after such a remarkable start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 20 hours ago, Hoosier said: Hot off the press That's their typical la nina broad brush. This agency is utter garbage at this point and shouldn't be taken seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 16 hours ago, Hoosier said: 2000-01 is obviously an analog that will be floated around with it being one of the limited number of examples of a 3rd year Nina. Everybody remembers that December, which was pretty historic in some areas, but another thing I remember is how quickly that winter pretty much shut off in my area once January 2001 arrived. I went back and looked at some stats to refresh my memory about how bad things got. Chicago only received 8.2" between Jan-Apr 2001 (4.0" of which came in a March storm), which is the 4th lowest amount of snow on record during that time, and the lowest since 1949. And it's not like it became warm overall or excessively dry. Just horrid timing with it usually not being cold enough at the right time. When that crazy December was happening, I wondered if we were on the way to an incredibly snowy winter. I loved getting so much snow that month, but it just quickly flamed out after such a remarkable start. There were a few weeks that December where we had Winter Storm Warnings every other day. I'm glad it shut off in January or we would have had snow on the ground until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2022 Author Share Posted October 21, 2022 What's even more crazy about Dec 2000 is that the first 10 days of the month were pretty quiet, at least where I was. Then there was the big storm on the 11th and it was just an onslaught in the 3 weeks after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 Do you guys think 1988-1989 is a good analog for the upcoming winter? I noticed Joe Bastardi indicated that this was the coldest start to October since 1988, although I know he can sometimes take liberties with data. Regardless, I thought that was interesting since I also recently read that the Mississippi River at Memphis recently went below the prior record low set in 1988. So both years had widespread drought across the CONUS, a chilly October, and a similar ENSO state at this point - although 1988-1989 went on to become a strong La Nina whereas I believe most forecasts for this winter are weak to moderate La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 21, 2022 Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Do you guys think 1988-1989 is a good analog for the upcoming winter? I noticed Joe Bastardi indicated that this was the coldest start to October since 1988, although I know he can sometimes take liberties with data. Regardless, I thought that was interesting since I also recently read that the Mississippi River at Memphis recently went below the prior record low set in 1988. So both years had widespread drought across the CONUS, a chilly October, and a similar ENSO state at this point - although 1988-1989 went on to become a strong La Nina whereas I believe most forecasts for this winter are weak to moderate La Nina. It looks 2011-2012 might be a decent analog as well, which was a multi-year ENSO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2022 Author Share Posted October 21, 2022 Don't know about 1988-89, but I'd have 2011-12 in the mix. I view that one as sort of a reasonable worst case scenario though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 21, 2022 Author Share Posted October 21, 2022 3 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: That's their typical la nina broad brush. This agency is utter garbage at this point and shouldn't be taken seriously. I personally think there's limited utility with these kinds of outlooks, but they get a lot of mainstream attention. Here's what Ninas in the past 20 years have done temp/precip wise. Some of them really "look" like Nina, some kind of do and some really don't. I left out 2016-17 based on the DJF ONI value no longer being in Nina territory, but there's an argument for that winter to be considered a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 John Dee's winter prognostication is supposed to come out tomorrow(10/26). Waiting in anticipation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 34 minutes ago, Frog Town said: John Dee's winter prognostication is supposed to come out tomorrow(10/26). Waiting in anticipation! Why? He's not that good, especially outside his back yard aka the U.P. aka Yooperland. He will surely show "No good sledding" everywhere south of The Straights. I don't dislike the guy on a personal level just to be clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 On 10/20/2022 at 6:07 PM, Hoosier said: 2000-01 is obviously an analog that will be floated around with it being one of the limited number of examples of a 3rd year Nina. Everybody remembers that December, which was pretty historic in some areas, but another thing I remember is how quickly that winter pretty much shut off in my area once January 2001 arrived. I went back and looked at some stats to refresh my memory about how bad things got. Chicago only received 8.2" between Jan-Apr 2001 (4.0" of which came in a March storm), which is the 4th lowest amount of snow on record during that time, and the lowest since 1949. And it's not like it became warm overall or excessively dry. Just horrid timing with it usually not being cold enough at the right time. When that crazy December was happening, I wondered if we were on the way to an incredibly snowy winter. I loved getting so much snow that month, but it just quickly flamed out after such a remarkable start. January through April 2001 was 1 of the most boring Winter weather periods I could remember. What helped big time was that the deep snow pack from December did not fully melt until the 2nd week of February, and much of January was spent with a respectable snowpack despite little active weather. And yes, the snow pack made a huge difference in how that Winter was remembered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: January through April 2001 was 1 of the most boring Winter weather periods I could remember. What helped big time was that the deep snow pack from December did not fully melt until the 2nd week of February, and much of January was spent with a respectable snowpack despite little active weather. And yes, the snow pack made a huge difference in how that Winter was remembered. Clearly the best December I can remember with almost 20" on the ground for Christmas with cold weather. I'll take that over a solid Jan-March anytime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: January through April 2001 was 1 of the most boring Winter weather periods I could remember. What helped big time was that the deep snow pack from December did not fully melt until the 2nd week of February, and much of January was spent with a respectable snowpack despite little active weather. And yes, the snow pack made a huge difference in how that Winter was remembered. Absolutely amazing 70 days durability of snowcover for this region considering it was hardly being replenished. From a Dec to remember standpoint for DTW, give me one of these: '74, '81, '00, '17 (2013 had the unfortunate melt-off for Christmas) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 22 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Why? He's not that good, especially outside his back yard aka the U.P. aka Yooperland. He will surely show "No good sledding" everywhere south of The Straights. I don't dislike the guy on a personal level just to be clear. Dee's making me eat Crow and like it. He did say his secret formula has upped his seasonal batting avg, and he dropped his "no good sledding" mantra. Just says GO NORTH! Said last year's calls worked out, including the BN snowfall for Chicago/NIL region. I like the overall look of his map, just wish him to be wrong on his call for AN temps here. Can't argue with that call though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 yup, Dee just countered Alek's futility call.............ride it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 lake mead fucked huh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 Mid-Atlantic peeps ain't gonna like that one lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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