New England heavy rain event Sept 5/6 2022. Does this end the summer drought?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Fee fortunate to have .80 on the day because the modes keep looking less than stellar for se Mass moving forward through tomorrow. May not be much, especially the further you move towards the cape.

[Damage In Tolland]

Cranston almost at 6”

 

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Luckily your area doesn’t flood 

It does just not my hood on the hill.

[Damage In Tolland]

Water rescues overnight CT into RI?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

18z HRRR has almost nothing from About Tan to Plymouth Southeast.

[cut]

I can see how Trumbull comes out of this not getting much. We REAAALLLY need rain but I am getting a feeling on this one - we dry.

[moneypitmike]

Zone forecast is so innocuous while  P/C calling for 1-2 overnight and 1-2 tomorrow.

Tonight

Showers. Lows around 60. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday

Showers. Highs in the mid 60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday Night

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the evening.

[metagraphica]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are going to be close to ground zero there I think. Boundary will stall over or just south of you 

Yep, definitely gonna get some heavy rain. If it does stall overhead it should be interesting...

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Water rescues overnight CT into RI?

Ginxy body surfing through the block to rescue neighbors on a raft of doo?

[BombsAway1288]

No end in sight for the same areas in RI and ECT. 
This could get really bad for them if this continues all evening into tonight. 

[Vinny Findley]

Looking back into CT my total could double what I have now. Flash flood warning keeps popping up.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Ginxy body surfing through the block to rescue neighbors on a raft of doo?

[OceanStWx]

Average recurrence interval is 200 years at PVD for 2 hours at 4.4 inches and 3 hour at 5.13 inches. Amounts near that have been observed.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z HRRR has almost nothing from About Tan to Plymouth Southeast.

That’s why we have radar for truth. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Average recurrence interval is 200 years at PVD for 2 hours at 4.4 inches and 3 hour at 5.13 inches. Amounts near that have been observed.

Incredible. 

[moneypitmike]

Off-topic question.......what are the data sources being used in the short-range models like the HRRR?

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Off-topic question.......what are the data sources being used in the short-range models like the HRRR?

Robin Circle davis

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Average recurrence interval is 200 years at PVD for 2 hours at 4.4 inches and 3 hour at 5.13 inches. Amounts near that have been observed.

I'm not sure exactly what that means--is this a statistical estimation?  Since we only have about 1.5 200 year-intervals to observe, I'm a little confused.   I would think tropical systems may do that more frequently than every 200 years.

 

.75"

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Water rescues overnight CT into RI?

Throw JC-CT a life raft. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'm not sure exactly what that means--is this a statistical estimation?  Since we only have about 1.5 200 year-intervals to observe, I'm a little confused.   I would think tropical systems may do that more frequently than every 200 years.

 

.75"

 

It's a statistical analysis (which is why they also give 90% confidence interval bounds, i.e. 3.5 to 7 inches for 3 hours). In the most basic terms they take the period of record and look at annual max values at each time interval for a region. From there they use statistics to establish the range for each time interval and location (like I think RI shows no statistical difference in amounts between each location so they are all the same values).

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Throw JC-CT a life raft. 

Does he post anymore?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, kdxken said:

Does he post anymore?

Only in winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Throw JC-CT a life raft. 

He always seems so angry on here 

[Sn0waddict]

0.00 still in Milford. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He always seems so angry on here 

I’ll pack a few gummies in his life raft. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Radar looking juicy for here later on.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll pack a few gummies in his life raft. 

Mmmm, edibles.

[Baroclinic Zone]

0.39”

[BrianW]

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

0.00 still in Milford. 

CAPE and instability, especially across
Connecticut, will allow for isolated thunderstorms into early this evening, before CAPE weakens. Precipitable water values remain around 2 inches, and with a combination of relatively slow moving storms and possibly training storms, could lead to locally higher rainfall totals. A shortwave approaches late tonight along the frontal boundary to the west, and this will spin up a weak surface low. This will enhance lift across the region late tonight and continuing into Tuesday afternoon as the upper shortwave and surface low track south of Long Island. Precipitable water remains around 2 inches, and the highest rainfall totals will be possible during the day Tuesday.

&&

[WxWatcher007]

The melts will be epic in far southern CT if the rest of the state floods and they get a trace