New England heavy rain event Sept 5/6 2022. Does this end the summer drought?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

House is where it says Seymour in blue …

 

 

How is the Hoose looking?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

How is the Hoose looking?

Headed home now pool and mulch beds are over now one big pond it seems on camera 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

House is where it says Seymour in blue …

 

If that 5-6" estimate is 8"+ then that bullseye of 8"+ east of you is near a foot.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Headed home now pool and mulch beds are over now one big pond it seems on camera 

Yea that too but the Housatonic river?

[Spanks45]

Pushing 4 inches now....up until about 30 minutes ago the yard was in good shape. Now lots of ponding showing up....pool is now up to the top of the skimmer

[wxeyeNH]

This summer people kept saying drought begets drought.  The Dallas event and this event shows that areas in very series drought can still get inches of rain in a few hours.

Rain is over here   1.42" final

[ORH_wxman]

About 3.60” right now. Over an inch in the past 3 hours. Just steady heavy rain but nothing torrential. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea that too but the Housatonic river?

Not too bad on way home some minor flooding.. basement is dry.. mulch beds flooded that’s about it..  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If that 5-6" estimate is 8"+ then that bullseye of 8"+ east of you is near a foot.

Unfortunately no weather stations right there exactly but ones just to the north of that area are reading 8-9” .. 

[tamarack]

39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12" in 60 days is a once a year occurrence?

It's been close to that here.  Annual precip is 48.75" and I'd guess that Dracut is a bit higher.  In our 24 years here, we've had 21 such discrete "couplets", with 14 years having at least one (2008 had 3 and there's been no Dec-Jan pairs), though only one occurrence since 2014.  By discrete I mean no overlaps - if 4 consecutive months had 6,8,7,6 inches, only 1st/2nd and 3rd/4th would count, not 2nd/3rd.  Totals for pairs have ranged from 12.01" to 22.18", this latter Oct-Nov 2005.

[Vinny Findley]

2" for the day so far. No rain at the moment. 9.37 event total.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

It's been close to that here.  Annual precip is 48.75" and I'd guess that Dracut is a bit higher.  In our 24 years here, we've had 21 such discrete "couplets", with 14 years having at least one (2008 had 3 and there's been no Dec-Jan pairs), though only one occurrence since 2014.  By discrete I mean no overlaps - if 4 consecutive months had 6,8,7,6 inches, only 1st/2nd and 3rd/4th would count, not 2nd/3rd.  Totals for pairs have ranged from 12.01" to 22.18", this latter Oct-Nov 2005.

Lowell is a bit lower than that...48ish.  CON normal is 42". MHT 41". Definitely more doable near the coast than in the valley.

[Superstorm93]

This is a perfect example of what I'd want to wash away the

Just a steady rate with almost 3" on the day

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMAHOPKI38 

[MarkO]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

12" in 60 days is a once a year occurrence?

That does seem a bit high, but I guess if you can slide the goal posts between the maximum 60 days of precip, it seems at least plausable.

[WxWatcher007]

Thinking I cross 2" on the day with this next (and final) line pushing through. 

[radarman]

Some of the return intervals shouldn't be taken literally.  Headlines about 1000 yr storms all the time, while arguably fair in a larger point about increasing precip totals, don't necessarily mean that storms like that are really that rare.  DFW for example just had one but it was not the biggest 24hr total on record and has had like 5x 1000 yr storms in the last 100 years.   High end variability at all sites is not equal.   

With that being said, some of the totals and short timescale accumulations noted here are truly exceptional and historic.

[powderfreak]

Safe to say we won’t have Stein mentioned on here again this warm season?

[Superstorm93]

Juicy. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Safe to say we won’t have Stein mentioned on here again this warm season?

I may not be done with him. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Safe to say we won’t have Stein mentioned on here again this warm season?

I'd say its dead regionwide aside from the mid-cape through Chatham. 

1.59" final

[weatherwiz]

Crap power briefly went out. Maybe the rain is too much on the power lines  

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may not be done with him. 

Yeah I suppose your area is borderline and Stein could swoop back in with another dry stretch. 

[ma blizzard]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Crap power briefly went out. Maybe the rain is too much on the power lines  

def too much for my xmas trees

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Yeah I suppose your area is borderline and Stein could swoop back in with another dry stretch. 

Will wait to see if next week finishes him off.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I may not be done with him. 

Me neither.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Me neither.

Do you see any red flags for below normal precip this winter?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Do you see any red flags for below normal precip this winter?

Its early, but not really...I'd probably lean towards a more active first half.

South of our region may have more of a struggle.

[radarman]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

This summer people kept saying drought begets drought.  The Dallas event and this event shows that areas in very series drought can still get inches of rain in a few hours.

Yeah a lot of that is overblown for most.  There may be some areas in the west central plains or something for whom a lack of evapotranspiration from decreased surface moisture really does notably affect their precip chances and you start getting dust entrained afloft.  But for those with oceanic influence, Dallas included, none of that matters too much once the atmosphere aligns properly to deliver moisture.  PWATs were through the roof in the Texas event, and in this event as well.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

Yeah a lot of that is overblown for most.  There may be some areas in the west central plains or something for whom a lack of evapotranspiration from decreased surface moisture really does notably affect their precip chances and you start getting dust entrained afloft.  But for those with oceanic influence, Dallas included, none of that matters too much once the atmosphere aligns properly to deliver moisture.  PWATs were through the roof in the Texas event, and in this event as well.

I cringe when I see mets saying that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

End is visible ...  She's breakin' up on radar.

Other than that RI events yesterday and some sporadic CT, this was handled pretty well over all by guidance.   The convective totaling in those monstrous local scales ... not really in the purview of modeling skill the general 1.5 to 4" coverage however, is, and that was done pretty good.  I'd say the GFS came in behind the Euro overall.