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New England Met Fall 2022 Banter


HoarfrostHubb
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11 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

$3.39 near me.  For now.  

local station was $2.91 at 5pm yesterday. this morning it was $3.17. Up 26 cents in 11 hours. 

i know it's been discussed, but it irks me to no end that they can change the price on fuel like that-the fuel that is already sitting in their tanks. all it takes is a announcement from the a-holes at OPEC, they haven't actually done anything yet.

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19 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya they bounced  with markets starting on Monday am . Problem is in financial markets , people have no where to hide lately and they went all in on “inflation trade” last year and if fed pivots people will rush back into commodities . The issue is speculation and even investment into commodities as an asset class should be curtailed because the price of stuff people need can get “artificially” / exponentially increased much more than otherwise would be the case from relatively small supply cutbacks - investors some large see it as an opportunity to deliver “alpha” for themselves and their clients and this is something that is a taboo topic on tv .  This speculation led to the rise of the “Arab spring” over a decade ago and you won’t see lawmakers rushing to make sure this doesn’t happen again , they white wash and minimize and obfuscate the connection between speculation into commodities as an asset class and the subsequent role that has in raising prices for all commodities, and when there is a favorable back drop for Diminished commodity supply , investors pig pile and lever up making what should be a 10-15% price increase based on strict supply / demand into a disaster for citizens and a 30-45% $ increase .


Partially because we don’t actually have a two party system any longer, there is no Republican and Democrat anymore, there’s only one party, the fundraising party.

Corporations and private financial institutions and their lobbyists run the show.  Please, give me a presidential candidate who runs on a “campaign finance reform and term limits” platform.  
A campaign that vows to tear apart and rebuild the Treasury Dept, SEC, FDA and Dept of Commerce so they become real watchdogs actually protecting citizens from predatory banks and corporations and not the other way around.  

 

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Yes .  
 

That isn’t even possible for such a candidate to be funded . That is something that died decades ago. They would be a non starter And has zero chance of returning.

Its going to be a very tough road ahead for federal reserve to raise rates , but they will keep rates lower than inflation to keep real rates negative , so I think when Core PCE inflation finally rolls over and if it gains momentum that is when market returns to partying and fed stops dead in its rate hiking tracks . For the time being they are focused on trying to keep future inflation anticipation from becoming entrenched into psychology . So they see a future recession as great news for that and they see themselves downplaying the recession as good news to keep investors concerned about falling assets and believing inflation will roll over in that scenario and when prices of Core inflation fall for a couple months they will change their rate hiking talk but until then we run the risk of something breaking (I think ) 

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I bet if OPEC came out and said they weren’t actually decreasing production, those prices would go right back down……:lol:

You won't have to worry about that happening from OPEC+, You should be more concerned about them closing the valve even more.

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A very good economic mind . Eric Sprott Canadian billionaire that owns precious metals businesses has a very good article from last week that has started to play out and includes a chart of one key metric to follow . He’s not some “gold bug” . One of the better economic minds With a article highlighting crash risk and why 
 

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Crash-Watch-Becomes-Crash-Warning-September-27-2022

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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

September 22nd, filled the oil tank @$3.80 per gallon on the open market. Today, the price has hit $5.19 per gallon....all based on speculation

I heard something about backwardization. Basically the months coming up are valued more than the months beyond that timeframe....if that makes any sense. 

So as a result, the supply went down. Now Hurricane Ian screwed up barge traffic to deliver oil which helped create a sudden price spike.

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I heard something about backwardization. Basically the months coming up are valued more than the months beyond that timeframe....if that makes any sense. 

So as a result, the supply went down. Now Hurricane Ian screwed up barge traffic to deliver oil which helped create a sudden price spike.

What is the time frame of "coming up", and the "that" time frame that you refer to?  The sentence is pretty arbitrary and vague without some type of reference.

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Just now, Cold Miser said:

What is the time frame of "coming up", and the "that" time frame that you refer to?  The sentence is pretty arbitrary and vague without some type of reference.

I have no idea. This is the email I got. Not sure if it's BS or what.

 

I am writing this message to keep you informed regarding the oil market and the current situation. Currently most of the major suppliers are reporting that they are out, or will be out shortly, of their supply of home heating oil. This is why we are experiencing such a rapid increase in pricing.

 

The hurricane is being blamed as the acute reason for this outage. The oil barges had to be shut in to safe harbors to wait out the storm and the in-climate weather conditions that preceded and followed Hurricane Ian. This delay has led to the local supply outage. Some of the suppliers are reporting they will be resupplied in the next day or two; but that leaves the market without supply until resupply occurs.

 

I would like to point out that many suppliers are not surprised by this predicament; they have been fearful of the current conditions for some time. One main reason is the state of backwardation the heating oil commodities are in currently. Backwardations means that future months are less valuable than more forward months; under these conditions suppliers tend to run at lower levels to avoid losing value at the change of the calendar page. Then when an event such as a hurricane hits because they are hand to mouth on supply, they end up running out. This happened back in April/May, currently happening, and they predict this is how the winter will be going forward. Which means that these events could and will be likely to happen again. If you find yourself with low supply it is probably best to fill your tank when you have the chance. I cannot tell you prices will get better or that they will get worse; I can tell you that you need heating oil and you do not want to find yourself without a way to get it! 

 

I do not want to set a panic and this immediate issue could be solved in the next day or two but I do feel you need to be informed. This event has led us to change the terms and conditions on our site so please review them prior to placing an order. We will do everything in our control to make sure we get you supply and at the best price we can; please know that this issue is down stream of us and we are doing all we can to deal with it appropriately

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44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Biden’s fault.

Lol I know you were joking and I  def wouldn’t point finger at gramps (I’m not a fan of any side )

Opec  is siding with ...not us 

And as financial assets Like stocks and bonds tank this week on inflation concerns remaining which prevents the fed from putting the crack addicted broken markets back on their post 2008 stimulus drip ..we have oil up 17% this week as speculators can take a small supply cut of (1-2% and leverage that into a 20% increase in oil per barrel . Nothing wrong with the system here just ordinary supply / demand dynamics lol . Plus lower investment into fossil fuels Ahead of any realistic capacity for a transition has not been helpful but emotion Trumps logic sometimes these days 

This risks going from ugly and “this can’t be good” to a crisis . Markets are sorta waiting for that now so “Daddy fed” can come back and lower rates to zero . The biggest key for folks and market wildcard will be what does unemployment get to and folks keeping their job the next 12 months .

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have no idea. This is the email I got. Not sure if it's BS or what.

 

I am writing this message to keep you informed regarding the oil market and the current situation. Currently most of the major suppliers are reporting that they are out, or will be out shortly, of their supply of home heating oil. This is why we are experiencing such a rapid increase in pricing.

 

The hurricane is being blamed as the acute reason for this outage. The oil barges had to be shut in to safe harbors to wait out the storm and the in-climate weather conditions that preceded and followed Hurricane Ian. This delay has led to the local supply outage. Some of the suppliers are reporting they will be resupplied in the next day or two; but that leaves the market without supply until resupply occurs.

 

I would like to point out that many suppliers are not surprised by this predicament; they have been fearful of the current conditions for some time. One main reason is the state of backwardation the heating oil commodities are in currently. Backwardations means that future months are less valuable than more forward months; under these conditions suppliers tend to run at lower levels to avoid losing value at the change of the calendar page. Then when an event such as a hurricane hits because they are hand to mouth on supply, they end up running out. This happened back in April/May, currently happening, and they predict this is how the winter will be going forward. Which means that these events could and will be likely to happen again. If you find yourself with low supply it is probably best to fill your tank when you have the chance. I cannot tell you prices will get better or that they will get worse; I can tell you that you need heating oil and you do not want to find yourself without a way to get it! 

 

I do not want to set a panic and this immediate issue could be solved in the next day or two but I do feel you need to be informed. This event has led us to change the terms and conditions on our site so please review them prior to placing an order. We will do everything in our control to make sure we get you supply and at the best price we can; please know that this issue is down stream of us and we are doing all we can to deal with it appropriately

That may explain why I am hearing that the delivery trucks have only been allowed to fill half or part way this week in New London.

Edit: I meant New Haven

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