HoarfrostHubb Posted October 6, 2022 Author Share Posted October 6, 2022 7 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: I just filled at $3.59 on my second car which I don't use much. The heating oil situation is going to cause big issues, and I hope there is some plan to mitigate the effects this winter. What a disaster. $3.39 near me. For now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 11 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: $3.39 near me. For now. local station was $2.91 at 5pm yesterday. this morning it was $3.17. Up 26 cents in 11 hours. i know it's been discussed, but it irks me to no end that they can change the price on fuel like that-the fuel that is already sitting in their tanks. all it takes is a announcement from the a-holes at OPEC, they haven't actually done anything yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 19 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Ya they bounced with markets starting on Monday am . Problem is in financial markets , people have no where to hide lately and they went all in on “inflation trade” last year and if fed pivots people will rush back into commodities . The issue is speculation and even investment into commodities as an asset class should be curtailed because the price of stuff people need can get “artificially” / exponentially increased much more than otherwise would be the case from relatively small supply cutbacks - investors some large see it as an opportunity to deliver “alpha” for themselves and their clients and this is something that is a taboo topic on tv . This speculation led to the rise of the “Arab spring” over a decade ago and you won’t see lawmakers rushing to make sure this doesn’t happen again , they white wash and minimize and obfuscate the connection between speculation into commodities as an asset class and the subsequent role that has in raising prices for all commodities, and when there is a favorable back drop for Diminished commodity supply , investors pig pile and lever up making what should be a 10-15% price increase based on strict supply / demand into a disaster for citizens and a 30-45% $ increase . Partially because we don’t actually have a two party system any longer, there is no Republican and Democrat anymore, there’s only one party, the fundraising party. Corporations and private financial institutions and their lobbyists run the show. Please, give me a presidential candidate who runs on a “campaign finance reform and term limits” platform. A campaign that vows to tear apart and rebuild the Treasury Dept, SEC, FDA and Dept of Commerce so they become real watchdogs actually protecting citizens from predatory banks and corporations and not the other way around. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Yes . That isn’t even possible for such a candidate to be funded . That is something that died decades ago. They would be a non starter And has zero chance of returning. Its going to be a very tough road ahead for federal reserve to raise rates , but they will keep rates lower than inflation to keep real rates negative , so I think when Core PCE inflation finally rolls over and if it gains momentum that is when market returns to partying and fed stops dead in its rate hiking tracks . For the time being they are focused on trying to keep future inflation anticipation from becoming entrenched into psychology . So they see a future recession as great news for that and they see themselves downplaying the recession as good news to keep investors concerned about falling assets and believing inflation will roll over in that scenario and when prices of Core inflation fall for a couple months they will change their rate hiking talk but until then we run the risk of something breaking (I think ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 ^ Basically working to prevent a collective realization that the system is already broken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Heating oil spiked .40-.50 cents/gal the last 2 days up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 52 minutes ago, dryslot said: Heating oil spiked .40-.50 cents/gal the last 2 days up here. wow. I just checked the company i use. It was 3.99 two days ago, now $4.69. Absurd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 32 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: wow. I just checked the company i use. It was 3.99 two days ago, now $4.69. Absurd I bet if OPEC came out and said they weren’t actually decreasing production, those prices would go right back down…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I bet if OPEC came out and said they weren’t actually decreasing production, those prices would go right back down…… You won't have to worry about that happening from OPEC+, You should be more concerned about them closing the valve even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Thanks Biden 3 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 6, 2022 Share Posted October 6, 2022 Yea…the real story is not on Faux Entertainment: https://www.milwaukeeindependent.com/thom-hartmann/price-gas-trumps-manipulation-oil-policies-reaped-profits-putin-fossil-fuel-benefactors/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 A very good economic mind . Eric Sprott Canadian billionaire that owns precious metals businesses has a very good article from last week that has started to play out and includes a chart of one key metric to follow . He’s not some “gold bug” . One of the better economic minds With a article highlighting crash risk and why https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Crash-Watch-Becomes-Crash-Warning-September-27-2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Is there no foliage thread this season or am I missing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 6 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Is there no foliage thread this season or am I missing it? There isn't one this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 7, 2022 Author Share Posted October 7, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: There isn't one this year. Trees are changing big time near me. Seems early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 7, 2022 Author Share Posted October 7, 2022 My hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Trees are changing big time near me. Seems early Yeah a little ahead it seems...I think Stein helped a little down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Should I be getting my driveway sealed before winter? Paved late Oct last year… not sure if you are supposed to have it sealed or not in the following year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 I would, You don't want a crack to develop then water gets in and freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 September 22nd, filled the oil tank @$3.80 per gallon on the open market. Today, the price has hit $5.19 per gallon....all based on speculation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: September 22nd, filled the oil tank @$3.80 per gallon on the open market. Today, the price has hit $5.19 per gallon....all based on speculation Biden’s fault. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: September 22nd, filled the oil tank @$3.80 per gallon on the open market. Today, the price has hit $5.19 per gallon....all based on speculation I heard something about backwardization. Basically the months coming up are valued more than the months beyond that timeframe....if that makes any sense. So as a result, the supply went down. Now Hurricane Ian screwed up barge traffic to deliver oil which helped create a sudden price spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I heard something about backwardization. Basically the months coming up are valued more than the months beyond that timeframe....if that makes any sense. So as a result, the supply went down. Now Hurricane Ian screwed up barge traffic to deliver oil which helped create a sudden price spike. What is the time frame of "coming up", and the "that" time frame that you refer to? The sentence is pretty arbitrary and vague without some type of reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Just now, Cold Miser said: What is the time frame of "coming up", and the "that" time frame that you refer to? The sentence is pretty arbitrary and vague without some type of reference. I have no idea. This is the email I got. Not sure if it's BS or what. I am writing this message to keep you informed regarding the oil market and the current situation. Currently most of the major suppliers are reporting that they are out, or will be out shortly, of their supply of home heating oil. This is why we are experiencing such a rapid increase in pricing. The hurricane is being blamed as the acute reason for this outage. The oil barges had to be shut in to safe harbors to wait out the storm and the in-climate weather conditions that preceded and followed Hurricane Ian. This delay has led to the local supply outage. Some of the suppliers are reporting they will be resupplied in the next day or two; but that leaves the market without supply until resupply occurs. I would like to point out that many suppliers are not surprised by this predicament; they have been fearful of the current conditions for some time. One main reason is the state of backwardation the heating oil commodities are in currently. Backwardations means that future months are less valuable than more forward months; under these conditions suppliers tend to run at lower levels to avoid losing value at the change of the calendar page. Then when an event such as a hurricane hits because they are hand to mouth on supply, they end up running out. This happened back in April/May, currently happening, and they predict this is how the winter will be going forward. Which means that these events could and will be likely to happen again. If you find yourself with low supply it is probably best to fill your tank when you have the chance. I cannot tell you prices will get better or that they will get worse; I can tell you that you need heating oil and you do not want to find yourself without a way to get it! I do not want to set a panic and this immediate issue could be solved in the next day or two but I do feel you need to be informed. This event has led us to change the terms and conditions on our site so please review them prior to placing an order. We will do everything in our control to make sure we get you supply and at the best price we can; please know that this issue is down stream of us and we are doing all we can to deal with it appropriately 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Biden’s fault. Lol I know you were joking and I def wouldn’t point finger at gramps (I’m not a fan of any side ) Opec is siding with ...not us And as financial assets Like stocks and bonds tank this week on inflation concerns remaining which prevents the fed from putting the crack addicted broken markets back on their post 2008 stimulus drip ..we have oil up 17% this week as speculators can take a small supply cut of (1-2% and leverage that into a 20% increase in oil per barrel . Nothing wrong with the system here just ordinary supply / demand dynamics lol . Plus lower investment into fossil fuels Ahead of any realistic capacity for a transition has not been helpful but emotion Trumps logic sometimes these days This risks going from ugly and “this can’t be good” to a crisis . Markets are sorta waiting for that now so “Daddy fed” can come back and lower rates to zero . The biggest key for folks and market wildcard will be what does unemployment get to and folks keeping their job the next 12 months . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I have no idea. This is the email I got. Not sure if it's BS or what. I am writing this message to keep you informed regarding the oil market and the current situation. Currently most of the major suppliers are reporting that they are out, or will be out shortly, of their supply of home heating oil. This is why we are experiencing such a rapid increase in pricing. The hurricane is being blamed as the acute reason for this outage. The oil barges had to be shut in to safe harbors to wait out the storm and the in-climate weather conditions that preceded and followed Hurricane Ian. This delay has led to the local supply outage. Some of the suppliers are reporting they will be resupplied in the next day or two; but that leaves the market without supply until resupply occurs. I would like to point out that many suppliers are not surprised by this predicament; they have been fearful of the current conditions for some time. One main reason is the state of backwardation the heating oil commodities are in currently. Backwardations means that future months are less valuable than more forward months; under these conditions suppliers tend to run at lower levels to avoid losing value at the change of the calendar page. Then when an event such as a hurricane hits because they are hand to mouth on supply, they end up running out. This happened back in April/May, currently happening, and they predict this is how the winter will be going forward. Which means that these events could and will be likely to happen again. If you find yourself with low supply it is probably best to fill your tank when you have the chance. I cannot tell you prices will get better or that they will get worse; I can tell you that you need heating oil and you do not want to find yourself without a way to get it! I do not want to set a panic and this immediate issue could be solved in the next day or two but I do feel you need to be informed. This event has led us to change the terms and conditions on our site so please review them prior to placing an order. We will do everything in our control to make sure we get you supply and at the best price we can; please know that this issue is down stream of us and we are doing all we can to deal with it appropriately That may explain why I am hearing that the delivery trucks have only been allowed to fill half or part way this week in New London. Edit: I meant New Haven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 Every time a whale farts in the GOM the price of Nat gas goes up, After 2 straight years of increases in polyethylene resin (+80%), I'm just starting to see some erosion in the price per pound albeit a reduction of 2%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Should I be getting my driveway sealed before winter? Paved late Oct last year… not sure if you are supposed to have it sealed or not in the following year. Depends. I went 20 years on my original driveway without ever sealing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Depends. I went 20 years on my original driveway without ever sealing it. Different beast up here, You would be re paving it again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 8, 2022 Author Share Posted October 8, 2022 Hanging out at Mohegan waiting for the main act I forgot how much casinos are not my thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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