New England Met Fall 2022 Banter

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

That's why i asked, I'm not sure there's a savings burning wood.

There's a huge savings burning wood where I live, wood might be more expensive near the bigger cities but I never spent more than $880 for wood in one year. I've spent triple plus that on oil before I had the wood stove.

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I got them free this year, just had to cut and split myself. I have two years worth. I usually burn 3 1/2-4 1/2 cords a year. When  I last bought it was $220 a cord.

That's what we pay for cut/split/unseasoned.  Boosted from $200 for the previous 3-4 years.  We burn 4-5 cd/yr here, same as when we lived in Gardiner despite 15% more HDDs in the foothills.  Took 6+ cd in Fort Kent, but we never paid for wood there - usually I'd load the pickup after work in the Allagash/St. John country, and 2 years I was able to cut pulpwood-quality hardwoods (was no market for it then) and pay to have it hauled to the house.  We moved into our first house in May 1977, and I'd installed the little Jotul 612 the day before the move. 

Only once was I able to cut a winter's wood here, mainly because I had to cut 2.5 cords just to get DirecTV.  (When hi-def came, we could only get PBS - intermittently.) 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pretty high tide in New South Beach /Miami

 

[MJO812]

Happy October 1

[BrianW]

Utilities in Maine spent 90 million dollars to fight a power line from Hydro Quebec to  bring affordable renewable electricity to New England

Meanwhile Massachusetts residents pay 8 times that for electricity...

Hydro Quebec's current price

6.319¢/kWh for energy consumed up to 40 kWh per day times the number of days in the consumption period (1st tier)

9.749¢/kWh for the remaining energy consumed (2nd tier)

We do not bill based on your daily consumption. We take into account your total consumption during the consumption period, which is more beneficial for you.

For example, if your consumption period covers 62 days, 2,480 kWh (40 kWh per day × 62 days = 2,480 kWh) will be billed at the first-tier price. Any remaining energy consumption will be billed using the second-tier price

Our rates for residential customers are indeed the lowest in North America. For over 50 years, electricity prices in Québec have increased more or less at the same rate as inflation.

https://www.hydroquebec.com/residential/customer-space/rates/rate-d-billing.html

[CoastalWx]

Let’s level some woods and get that into New England.

[BrianW]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s level some woods and get that into New England.

So you voted yes on the Northern Pass?

[Cold Miser]

Are any of the fall allergy prone people here having more serious than normal allergies over the past week or so? I am.

 

I will have to consult the dead sea scrolls and see what this means for winter. 

[IowaStorm05]

3 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

Are any of the fall allergy prone people here having more serious than normal allergies over the past week or so? I am.

 

I will have to consult the dead sea scrolls and see what this means for winter. 

My mom has had terrible allergies.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Haven’t posted a while about it but the financial markets are just ugly with the fed in a  spot that folks haven’t seen in their life times . Hiking rates to fight inflation into economic weakness and a 20 year asset bubble .
 

**As Ray Dalio says people In financial markets often Make the mistake of using the experiences they have seen in their lifetime to determine wha the market can do and will do , monetary cycles often repeat throughout history but the average length of the cycles are 100-120 years and history is littered with examples of what can happen next** . Hooping they find a way to put a bandage on and kick the can bc there are zero good options .

3575 on SP 500 is a tag of a big support zone and likely bounce zone . It’s the 200 week moving average 

[tamarack]

19 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Haven’t posted a while about it but the financial markets are just ugly with the fed in a  spot that folks haven’t seen in their life times . Hiking rates to fight inflation into economic weakness and a 20 year asset bubble .
 

**As Ray Dalio says people In financial markets often Make the mistake of using the experiences they have seen in their lifetime to determine wha the market can do and will do , monetary cycles often repeat throughout history but the average length of the cycles are 100-120 years and history is littered with examples of what can happen next** . Hooping they find a way to put a bandage on and kick the can bc there are zero good options .

3575 on SP 500 is a tag of a big support zone and likely bounce zone . It’s the 200 week moving average 

Only those folks too young to remember the late1970s/early 1980s "stagflation" followed by much higher interest rates than now.  We remember, as we finally bought in 1981 the northern Maine home we'd sought for two years, with the mortgage rate at 17.5%.

[weatherwiz]

Does anyone know where you can get archived maps of sea-surface temperatures (with a focus on Long Island Sound)? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 hours ago, tamarack said:

Only those folks too young to remember the late1970s/early 1980s "stagflation" followed by much higher interest rates than now.  We remember, as we finally bought in 1981 the northern Maine home we'd sought for two years, with the mortgage rate at 17.5%.

I was including that period . I’m def not referring to rates .  Rates won’t Come close to touching  that level but There is much greater structural instability and it’s global now than that period , a world with quadrillions in derivatives spread among interconnected parties and more so the debt structure now can not handle the rate hikes of that period .
 

Also we are coming off a 13 year experiment in 0-1% fed funds rates and bubble valuations in stocks bonds and housing not to mention (QE / monetizing our own debt ) once monetary systems go down that road there are not many instances of returning  to anything resembling normal Policy of moderate rates  . I can’t find any . instead there a examples of continued intervention required . Early 80’s didn’t have that structural issue . Thus why nobody alive has seen this before .
 

They are raising rates aggressively into a bubble and a weakening economy . Debt to gdp is about 300% of what it was in that early 80’s scenario and monetary systems become more fragile with age mostly due to the debt growing more over time . This scenario has however played out many times in the last few centuries and no system lasts forever . Hoping they just find a way to kick the can . 
 

Volcker was lucky he didn’t have to deal with social media and all the whining as assets fall to bring down inflation, he smoked a cigar (while giving testimony) and told people to deal with it as he broke inflations back,  Powell may cave under pressure and then inflation could become entrenched , PPI and CPI number next week need to come in lower so fed can slow rate hikes as the always honorable IMF and UN come out today and try to influence Fed’s plans. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was including that period . I’m def not referring to rates .  Rates won’t Come close to touching  that level but There is much greater structural instability and it’s global now than that period , a world with quadrillions in derivatives spread among interconnected parties and more so the debt structure now can not handle the rate hikes of that period .
 

Also we are coming off a 13 year experiment in 0-1% fed funds rates and bubble valuations in stocks bonds and housing not to mention (QE / monetizing our own debt ) once monetary systems go down that road there are not many instances of returning  to anything resembling normal Policy of moderate rates  . I can’t find any . instead there a examples of continued intervention required . Early 80’s didn’t have that structural issue . Thus why nobody alive has seen this before .
 

They are raising rates aggressively into a bubble and a weakening economy . Debt to gdp is about 300% of what it was in that early 80’s scenario and monetary systems become more fragile with age mostly due to the debt growing more over time . This scenario has however played out many times in the last few centuries and no system lasts forever . Hoping they just find a way to kick the can . 
 

Volcker was lucky he didn’t have to deal with social media and all the whining as assets fall to bring down inflation, he smoked a cigar (while giving testimony) and told people to deal with it as he broke inflations back,  Powell may cave under pressure and then inflation could become entrenched , PPI and CPI number next week need to come in lower so fed can slow rate hikes as the always honorable IMF and UN come out today and try to influence Fed’s plans. 

 

 The banks are overleveraged a Quadrillion Dollars in the derivatives market.  How can that possibly end well?  The best part is when these thieving institutions get bailed out with taxpayer money.  The JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citibanks of the world literally get to set the rules for a game everyone is forced to play.  They use lobbyists to buy approval from lawmakers for the  obscure rules and laws that aid in the heist while protecting their interests.  

 

[Sled]

Ray Dalio loves China so eff him.

You've got a good take though. I'll believe a pivot when I see it. Dot plot has fed funds rate anywhere from 4-4.5% by the end of the year. Not gonna be 75 bps a clip anyhow according to the plan. But yea, CPI and PCE again at the end of the month will set the course. Lotta whackos out there reading tea leaves. Stay safe out there.

[QCD17]

This impending OPEC price gouge probably won't help things, either.

[tamarack]

On 10/3/2022 at 3:11 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I was including that period . I’m def not referring to rates .  Rates won’t Come close to touching  that level but There is much greater structural instability and it’s global now than that period , a world with quadrillions in derivatives spread among interconnected parties and more so the debt structure now can not handle the rate hikes of that period .

Volcker was lucky he didn’t have to deal with social media and all the whining as assets fall to bring down inflation, he smoked a cigar (while giving testimony) and told people to deal with it as he broke inflations back,  Powell may cave under pressure and then inflation could become entrenched , PPI and CPI number next week need to come in lower so fed can slow rate hikes as the always honorable IMF and UN come out today and try to influence Fed’s plans. 

In the early 1980s I was manager of Seven Islands' St. John River District, and can recall a meeting with Gilles Tardif, CEO for the Maibec mills.  We were looking for ways to sell spruce-fir that was dying due to spruce budworm, at a time when nobody wanted lumber.  Gilles commented that what the fed was doing was indeed painful, but that it was the only way to get out of the stagflation mess.  (And 7-I/Maibec found a way out of our respective messes as well.)

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, QCD17 said:

This impending OPEC price gouge probably won't help things, either.

exactly cutting 2 million barrels a day will hurt a ton of people this winter

[BrianW]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

exactly cutting 2 million barrels a day will hurt a ton of people this winter

People are reporting heating oil prices today are like 50-70 cents more a gallon than when they called earlier in the week to check on prices. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hope everyone enjoyed gas prices under $4

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Heading up north Dec 21-24. 3 nights for about 600 bucks in North Conway. Anyone got any other suggestions for something a bit different for same money or less?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

37 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Heading up north Dec 21-24. 3 nights for about 600 bucks in North Conway. Anyone got any other suggestions for something a bit different for same money or less?

Can’t imagine anything less $ for that period and I don’t think I could find something equal either.

its hard to find anything under 300$/day and for that week..very hard 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, this thread is always so depressing. Nothing like a paragraph or 8 from world renowned global economist Pickles to send you right into the bath tub with a toaster. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hope everyone enjoyed gas prices under $4

I just filled at $3.59 on my second car which I don't use much.

The heating oil situation is going to cause big issues, and I hope there is some plan to mitigate the effects this winter. What a disaster. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I just filled at $3.59 on my second car which I don't use much.

The heating oil situation is going to cause big issues, and I hope there is some plan to mitigate the effects this winter. What a disaster. 

Yeah… it’s going to put a lot of people in a bind for sure. Most people barely getting by as it is with the prices of everything. Not good.

I read an article that more people are carrying credit card balances than ever before 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, BrianW said:

People are reporting heating oil prices today are like 50-70 cents more a gallon than when they called earlier in the week to check on prices. 

Locked 1,000 gals, $4.29/gal, Let her go.

[NorEastermass128]

With OPEC’s move, gas prices will start spiking again…just in time for the elections. How convenient. 

[dryslot]

They were already going back up before opec announced their cut.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

They were already going back up before opec announced their cut.

Ya they bounced  with markets starting on Monday am . Problem is in financial markets , people have no where to hide lately and they went all in on “inflation trade” last year and if fed pivots people will rush back into commodities . The issue is speculation and even investment into commodities as an asset class should be curtailed because the price of stuff people need can get “artificially” / exponentially increased much more than otherwise would be the case from relatively small supply cutbacks - investors some large see it as an opportunity to deliver “alpha” for themselves and their clients and this is something that is a taboo topic on tv .  This speculation led to the rise of the “Arab spring” over a decade ago and you won’t see lawmakers rushing to make sure this doesn’t happen again , they white wash and minimize and obfuscate the connection between speculation into commodities as an asset class and the subsequent role that has in raising prices for all commodities, and when there is a favorable back drop for Diminished commodity supply , investors pig pile and lever up making what should be a 10-15% price increase based on strict supply / demand into a disaster for citizens and a 30-45% $ increase .

[Cold Miser]

Yesterday marked the anniversary of an historic snow storm where I grew up in upstate NY.  This is one of my friends marking the occasion. Never mind the spelling error.