New England Met Fall 2022 Banter

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Me too.

I think I have also seen DMB, Dispatch, Springsteen, and Fleetwood Mac there. 

Nice to see there's a Dispatch fan here! The lead vocalist, Chad, is a cousin of mine. My bro and I went to their "final" concert at the Hatch back in '04. Wild scene with like 100k plus people there.

[OceanStWx]

17 hours ago, Hoth said:

Nice to see there's a Dispatch fan here! The lead vocalist, Chad, is a cousin of mine. My bro and I went to their "final" concert at the Hatch back in '04. Wild scene with like 100k plus people there.

Their heyday couldn't have been any better timed for my high school/college years. The crowd I ran with in RI more often than not had Dispatch in the regular rotation at parties.

[HoarfrostHubb]

On 10/19/2022 at 8:26 AM, Ginx snewx said:

TGFTY 

LLTMGS

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

LLTMGS

You hate to see it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

You hate to see it.

That was a statement game by Houston tonight.  Dialed in. 

 

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That was a statement game by Houston tonight.  Dialed in. 

 

Battle of evil teams. Wish they could both lose. 

[powderfreak]

6 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Their heyday couldn't have been any better timed for my high school/college years. The crowd I ran with in RI more often than not had Dispatch in the regular rotation at parties.

Yeah they were big back in my UVM days… Dispatch was playing in many a dorm room a couple decades ago.

[mreaves]

34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah they were big back in my UVM days… Dispatch was playing in many a dorm room a couple decades ago.

I’ve never even heard of them. God I’m old. 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I’ve never even heard of them. God I’m old. 

Started in Middlebury and got big… they were most popular in late 1990s and early 2000.

[mreaves]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Started in Middlebury and got big… they were most popular in late 1990s and early 2000.

Wow. Middlebury. I guess that was the time I was buying a house, getting married etc. and had drifted away from going out in Burlington to Nectars and places like that. Speaking of Nectars, I could really go for some gravy fries. Or a kebab from Ali Baba’s

[Ginx snewx]

Well married off the last unmarried daughter at a total country wedding. Total blast perfect weather as well. Got to see my Grandson pic here with my two great grandsons as well,on leave from honor guard duty at the White House for the first time in 9 months. Some pig! Venison, rabbit and a whole lot of food. Awesome fire pit. What a relief my pockets can't take anymore marriages lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

That looks like a ton of fun. Congrats Ginx!!

[Cold Miser]

On 10/19/2022 at 8:26 AM, Ginx snewx said:

TGFTY 

This didn't age well.

But in other news, Congrats on the wedding. That looked like a total blast. What a great, Autumn day.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Cold Miser said:

This didn't age well.

But in other news, Congrats on the wedding. That looked like a total blast. What a great, Autumn day.

 

 

Fuk the Yankees lol. Better team won. Daughters wedding was best ever although I spent too much time in the "Adult" smoke tent. Pouring rain as I head inside 

[Cold Miser]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fuk the Yankees lol. Better team won. Daughters wedding was best ever although I spent too much time in the "Adult" smoke tent. Pouring rain as I head inside 

Facebook pics are great.  Too many serious, uptight weddings these days.  It looked like you guys had fun. 

Hopefully Freebird was played at some point. 

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Ginxy. Looked like fun.

[ORH_wxman]

Pig roast....awesome. My kind of party.

 

Congrats Ginxy.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer?

[dryslot]

9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fuk the Yankees lol. Better team won. Daughters wedding was best ever although I spent too much time in the "Adult" smoke tent. Pouring rain as I head inside 

Congrats Steve, Sounds like it was a great time, Pics looked like it.

[Cold Miser]

New Font to use at work.
 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just a financial market update 

Treasury chair Yellen is trying to put a floor under the markets  , good timing as the elections are coming up .
 

She is  effectively launching operation twist / Y.C.C via treasury doing an end around the fed . Fed chair bernanke did this in sept 2011 to stop 10 year bond rate from rising as they had cut off their artificial support of market in June and market fell hard so he had to prop it back up  (which has basically been there for last 12 years ) Until the fed stopped end of last year and well rates rocketed and mortgages with it . 
 

Yellen Had been very vocal  for weeks about illiquid (low demand ) treasury long end (10-30 year treasury bonds ) and now she is buying long end and selling high demand short end. That causes 10 year yield to fall which has a very strong inverse relationship on stocks and crypto and will reverse folks frowns from fixed income and stock losses of the last year if they have the ammo to do this past election . If not , back down we go . 
 

Back to your regularly scheduled programing . Was a great morning to go long crypto alt coins 

[Hoth]

On 10/22/2022 at 11:03 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah they were big back in my UVM days… Dispatch was playing in many a dorm room a couple decades ago.

Amazingly, they’re still putting out great tunes two decades later. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Just a financial market update 

Treasury chair Yellen is trying to put a floor under the markets  , good timing as the elections are coming up .
 

She is  effectively launching operation twist / Y.C.C via treasury doing an end around the fed . Fed chair bernanke did this in sept 2011 to stop 10 year bond rate from rising as they had cut off their artificial support of market in June and market fell hard so he had to prop it back up  (which has basically been there for last 12 years ) Until the fed stopped end of last year and well rates rocketed and mortgages with it . 
 

Yellen Had been very vocal  for weeks about illiquid (low demand ) treasury long end (10-30 year treasury bonds ) and now she is buying long end and selling high demand short end. That causes 10 year yield to fall which has a very strong inverse relationship on stocks and crypto and will reverse folks frowns from fixed income and stock losses of the last year if they have the ammo to do this past election . If not , back down we go . 
 

Back to your regularly scheduled programing . Was a great morning to go long crypto alt coins 

I’m very skeptical we’ve seen the bottom. Anything is possible, but if QT stays on autopilot, I have a hard time seeing sustained gains. We haven’t had a real blowout in credit spreads yet or a crescendo of equity selling. Very orderly year. This feels a bit like 2000-2002 so far. Protracted bear with a lot of big countertrend rallies and false starts. Markets also tend to bottom after the Fed goes into an easing cycle, not while they’re still hiking. I don’t think they’re going to back down from talking tough on inflation either. Powell doesn’t want to be Burns reincarnated. 
 

I’d also add that crushing economic activity through hikes and a strong dollar suppresses oil demand and may be a sneaky way for our government to undermine Russia’s ability to fund its war. 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I’m very skeptical we’ve seen the bottom. Anything is possible, but if QT stays on autopilot, I have a hard time seeing sustained gains. We haven’t had a real blowout in credit spreads yet or a crescendo of equity selling. Very orderly year. This feels a bit like 2000-2002 so far. Protracted bear with a lot of big countertrend rallies and false starts. Markets also tend to bottom after the Fed goes into an easing cycle, not while they’re still hiking. I don’t think they’re going to back down from talking tough on inflation either. Powell doesn’t want to be Burns reincarnated. 
 

I’d also add that crushing economic activity through hikes and a strong dollar suppresses oil demand and may be a sneaky way for our government to undermine Russia’s ability to fund its war. 

Bottom prob not until sometime middle of next year would be my educated guess. Gotta see how the housing market affects things too...that is nearing a cliff at the moment. Bottom prob gonna drop out if we see UnEmp tick up to like 5%.....combined with fix 30 year already around 7%.

But UnEmp prob not gonna tick up until we see another big drop in market and subsequent credit squeeze.

[DavisStraight]

48 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I’m very skeptical we’ve seen the bottom. Anything is possible, but if QT stays on autopilot, I have a hard time seeing sustained gains. We haven’t had a real blowout in credit spreads yet or a crescendo of equity selling. Very orderly year. This feels a bit like 2000-2002 so far. Protracted bear with a lot of big countertrend rallies and false starts. Markets also tend to bottom after the Fed goes into an easing cycle, not while they’re still hiking. I don’t think they’re going to back down from talking tough on inflation either. Powell doesn’t want to be Burns reincarnated. 
 

I’d also add that crushing economic activity through hikes and a strong dollar suppresses oil demand and may be a sneaky way for our government to undermine Russia’s ability to fund its war. 

2000-2002 was also a good time to by precious metal stocks, I've been purchasing at these rock bottom prices.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Mortgage rates are tied to 10 year bond yield . The fed stepped out of treasury bond market after being the BIGGEST buyer for better part of 12 years . Then the government also ran tremendous deficits so the treasury also increased  issuance Big time - so rates soared as the biggest demand left when supply soared .. so few buyers left basically willing to touch that long dated crap without a very rapidly rising yield to tempt them  . So that’s what Yellen and the treasury are trying do do - which would at least keep the biggest market in the world from blowing out . Job market is tight and will be  slower to see mass layoffs as it has demonstrated so far .

In case casual observers haven’t noticed we have A  *centrally planned * financial system . Dependent since 2009 on intervention ..fed bond buying to keep 10 year rate low . Now as we hike short term rates and inflation is soaring around the world at the same time the dollar has increased 20% this year (against others major currencies) other central banks are intervening to try and keep their currencies from weakening too much and inflation from rising ridiculously high . Turkey has 80% inflation . But with inflation so high there is no political capital for fed to save markets (not even the bond market which is most important to markets functioning) so the treasury is trying to at least stabilize them .  So we have Had intervention here there and every where and everyone is waiting on what daddy fed will do and say so they can set the course for future price gains or losses in The major assets they influence (stocks , bonds , housing , commodities, crypto ) . Centrally planned financial system very hard to predict unless you assume there is no intervention and fed keeps hiking till something breaks . But the point was Yellen intervened in the biggest market in the world to lower the 10 year yield which is tied to basically  all Asset price directional moves and is the heart of the global financial system . N nobody knows how much the treasury will continue to do this as it’s not been announced .

GOOG and MSFT missed on earnings and guidance wasn’t pretty and they are each down 6% but fed can live with falling house prices and stock prices . They are literally trying to lower prices of everything to bring inflation down ..it’s not a great plan..but  The fed  can’t exist if the bond market (10x bigger ) blows up and goes illiquid on the long end So that’s really where the systemic danger lies 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bottom prob not until sometime middle of next year would be my educated guess. Gotta see how the housing market affects things too...that is nearing a cliff at the moment. Bottom prob gonna drop out if we see UnEmp tick up to like 5%.....combined with fix 30 year already around 7%.

But UnEmp prob not gonna tick up until we see another big drop in market and subsequent credit squeeze.

Bingo. Well said!

[QCD17]

Just got a report of a mountain lion sighting near the school here in Brooklyn.  I think 99% of the time these are just folks that don't know what a bobcat looks like.  We'll see if any pics surface.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, QCD17 said:

Just got a report of a mountain lion sighting near the school here in Brooklyn.  I think 99% of the time these are just folks that don't know what a bobcat looks like.  We'll see if any pics surface.

Yeah genuine cougar sightings are very rare in New England and of the real ones, most of them are escaped captives, though occasionally you get a wild one from the west like the one that was killed in CT on a highway in 2011 that had traveled all the way from South Dakota. They are usually young nomadic males that travel that far.

[tamarack]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah genuine cougar sightings are very rare in New England and of the real ones, most of them are escaped captives, though occasionally you get a wild one from the west like the one that was killed in CT on a highway in 2011 that had traveled all the way from South Dakota. They are usually young nomadic males that travel that far.

The only DNA-confirmed cougar in Maine since we moved there in 1973 was identified by testing some hair was in . . . Cape Elizabeth - just where one would expect it.  

There have been numerous reports of sightings, some from very credible sources, but the eyes can be deceived.  Ken Allen, who wrote wildlife/hunting columns over 30+ years for the AUG/WVL newspapers, recounted his 2 sightings.  He said one appeared valid, as he had a good extended look at a big tan felid with a long tail.   The other - while headed south from Greenville during a rainy twilight, the animal ran across the road in front of him.  He braked and backed up, looked to his left, and saw a golden retriever standing in a driveway.

With all the trailcams out there, very few road kills (see above) and with no cached deer kills encountered by hunters, trappers, foresters, etc., I'm convinced there's no wild breeding populations in the Northeast.