BuffaloWeather Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 It's officially meteorological fall! Time for football games, apple crisp, and the leaves to start falling. It looks like we might have another warm fall if NOAA is correct. I'll reiterate what I said in the other thread. As we get into the busier fall/winter season please send me private message if you would like to join our discord. We have 28 members that joined and its pretty active daily. Lots of great weather discussion happens daily. We kind of decided we would do big storm threads here and day to day weather talk on the discord. Its much easier to post videos/pictures and links compared to this forum. We have a weather channel and a general/OT discussion channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 Next 2 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 Quite a bit of rain last few days around here https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 August temp departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 Looks about right lol Pulaski is +2.2° but doesn't include the last few days... +0.5° for the summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 JUNE TEMPS BUF: -0.2 ROC: -0.2 WAT: 0.0 SYR: -1.1 BING: -0.8 JULY TEMPS BUF: +0.7 ROC: -0.2 WAT: +0.8 SYR: +2.3 BING: +1.5 AUGUST Temps BUF: +2.3 ROC: +1.8 WAT: +3.1 SYR: +3.9 BING: +3.3 Summer Temps BUF: +2.8 ROC: +1.4 WAT: +3.9 SYR: +5.1 BING: +4.0 Obviously you have to divide by 3 for the 3 months so Average summer departure BUF: +.93 ROC: +.46 WAT: +1.3 SYR: +1.7 BING: +1.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 Average Daily high/low for KBUF, big swing in temps for September. Sep 1st: 76/58 Sep 30th: 65/48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 High of 69 today at KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 I'm predicting we'll see above average temperatures, perhaps well above, until around the October 15-20th time frame. Following that, it wouldn't surprise me to see much colder temperatures. I'm thinking the first sticking snow in Toronto will be around the November 20th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Meteorological Fall has now started across the region. It won't feel like Fall today though, as temperatures will climb to within a few degrees of 80. The Climate Prediction Center suggests that mild weather will dominate this Fall season, as their three month outlook suggests above normal temperatures for the three month Fall season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 2, 2022 Author Share Posted September 2, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Meteorological Fall has now started across the region. It won't feel like Fall today though, as temperatures will climb to within a few degrees of 80. The Climate Prediction Center suggests that mild weather will dominate this Fall season, as their three month outlook suggests above normal temperatures for the three month Fall season. Good lets keep those lakes warm for an epic December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 Ended up with 0.62" today. Grass is finally looking alive again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 11 hours ago, vortmax said: Ended up with 0.62" today. Grass is finally looking alive again! Little over 2" here, probably too late for any crops but whatever "drought" there was here is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 A taste of fall Thursday and Friday.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Hours and hours of rain yesterday, grand total just over 0.1". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 12, 2022 Author Share Posted September 12, 2022 Forecast for rest of Sep looks warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 And we know who to thank..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 Pretty cool data on the new climate norms. Some data on there that I did not expect. https://www.weather.gov/buf/newnormals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 About half way through September. Temps so far BUF: +1.5 ROC: +.6 WAT: +2.9 SYR: +3.0 BING: +1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 Looks like after a warm next week we cooldown for end of September 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 35° this morning with frozen dew on my windshield. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Flying MXZ said: 35° this morning with frozen dew on my windshield. 39 here. Kids asking when the pellet stove goes on. I told them at least another 2 weeks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 49 minutes ago, cny rider said: 39 here. Kids asking when the pellet stove goes on. I told them at least another 2 weeks! I have a rule, no heat until at least October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 7 hours ago, cny rider said: 39 here. Kids asking when the pellet stove goes on. I told them at least another 2 weeks! Fireplace can go in September, real heat is a last resort until October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 A strong mid-level trough will drop out of central Canada and cross the Great Lakes from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. As this trough tracks across these areas, it will deepen, and a strong sfc low will develop out ahead of the trough. With the developing sfc low, a trailing cold front will begin to cross the Great Lakes, including the Buffalo forecast area. Model guidance is all over with the timing of the crossing for this strong cold front, from anywhere from the early morning on Thursday to the late evening on Thursday night. The change in airmass from in front to behind the passing front will be tremendous with 850H temperatures crashing from near 20C down to near 0C in the matter of approximately 9 hours or so. Widespread showers (and at least a chance for thunderstorms) can be expected ahead of and with the front passing. With 850H temperatures expected to drop as much as they are, a lake response down wind of both lakes can most certainly be expected; but the finer details will need to be evaluated as we get closer in time (such as equilibrium heights, synoptic moisture, etc.) to know how strong of a lake response there will be. Temperatures for Thursday will be highly dependent on the timing of the cold front passage, if its later in the day, then Thursday will will likely be well above normal again, and vice versa for an earlier passing cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Pretty dead in here lol Get ready to enjoy some fall like weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Severe threat tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Maybe first 30s of the season? Edit : "officially" Coop came in at 39° on the 15th.. Thursday Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 60. West wind 13 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Sunday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manhattanandcatskills Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Even BGM puts flakes at highest terrain for Thursday night in its discussion. I have never seen snow in Sept, and I don't live as high up as I used to (so not planning on seeing it tomorrow), but I am wondering how unprecedented even the mention is outside of ADK summits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 That 6z GFS would be a dream hit for us from that hurricane next week. I'd pay a lot of money to lock in that solution. A man can dream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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