Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

September Discobs 2022


George BM
 Share

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good thing football’s back Sunday, because it’s looking like a total washout with 1-2” of drought. Then a break early Monday through Monday afternoon before the front approaches with more showers and maybe some woo storms?

Yup…cut the grass warning by Saturday evening in effect…WB 0Z EURO.

70A3BE7B-E45C-4282-8103-11CCC83FF55A.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Yup…cut the grass warning by Saturday evening in effect…WB 0Z EURO.

 

Perfect timing for me!

Will be on the clearing saw just after dawn tomorrow to tame the line and on the zero turn by lunchtime.  I do like this time of the year but wish the humidity would back off a bit. 

I had to replace a pressure tank in the pump hall last year close to this time (09/18) and the humidity was unbearable for mid Sept!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, CAPE said:

The lower eastern shore and S DE keep missing the good rain. Actually a small area of severe drought now in the Lewes - Rehoboth area.

Abnormally dry for much of the mid to upper eastern shore, despite the rain earlier in the week.

It's been unreal over there.  One CoCoRaHS spot close to Ocean City has just 1.11 from August 1 to today

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Not sure what that was from the 00z GFS for next weekend

LWX morning AFD makes mention of it:

There are beginning to be some hints towards the end of the long
term period that a low pressure system spins up off the Atlantic
coast along the stalled frontal boundary offshore over the Gulf
Stream. For now, keeping that out of the forecast, as there are more
pieces of guidance that keep this feature offshore or don`t develop
it at all. This is just something to watch at this point in
time.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, yoda said:

LWX morning AFD makes mention of it:

There are beginning to be some hints towards the end of the long
term period that a low pressure system spins up off the Atlantic
coast along the stalled frontal boundary offshore over the Gulf
Stream. For now, keeping that out of the forecast, as there are more
pieces of guidance that keep this feature offshore or don`t develop
it at all. This is just something to watch at this point in
time.

This should probably be in the October-September LR thread. Or maybe not. Ask Chuck.

No other global model has it, nor does the GEFS, so we shall see. Most likely stays disorganized/offshore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Sep 11 2022 - 12Z Mon Sep 12 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...

...Mid-Atlantic & Ohio Valley...

The disturbance that has been dawdling in the Lower Mississippi
Valley for several days will finally be picked up by the
amplifying trough heading for the Great Lakes and sent into the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon. The region will also become
positioned closer to the diffluent right-entrance region of a
250mb jet streak orienting itself along the spine of the
Appalachians. There will be no shortage of atmospheric moisture
from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic with a steady dose of 850mb
moisture flux and PWs ranging between 2.0-2.25". PWs in the
Mid-Atlantic are right around, if not slightly above, the 90th
climatological percentile for the date. The best instability will
be found from northern Florida to the Virginia Tidewater where
~1,000-2,000 J/kg of CAPE is expected Sunday afternoon. Storm
motions will be rather progressive, but deep warm cloud layers of
~12,000' AGL will allow for storms to be efficient rainfall
producers. It has also been a relatively wet 7-day period from
Pennsylvania on south through the central and southern
Appalachians with AHPS 7-day rainfall totals ranging between
300-600% of normal. With antecedent soil moisture conditions more
saturated than normal and heavy thunderstorms expected to contain
torrential downpours at times, a Slight Risk has been maintained
from northern North Carolina to the Lower Delaware and Susquehanna
Valleys. Poor drainage areas with sensitive soils and residing
within urbanized communities are most at-risk to flash flooding.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...