Weather Will Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 WB 10Z HRRR shows locally heavy storms in the mid afternoon through pm rush hour. Supports the flood watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 11:40 AM, Weather Will said: WB 10Z HRRR shows locally heavy storms in the mid afternoon through pm rush hour. Supports the flood watch. Expand Hoping I get missed! Have found that I have a roof leaking after a recent downpour. Need that handled first... NAM on board with locally heavy precipitation. Location will make all the difference! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 2:09 PM, midatlanticweather said: Hoping I get missed! Have found that I have a roof leaking after a recent downpour. Need that handled first... NAM on board with locally heavy precipitation. Location will make all the difference! Expand Man, NAM says i can have an outdoor event today.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 2:11 PM, leesburg 04 said: Man, NAM says i can have an outdoor event today.... Expand Only 0.01" here ....people were right when they were worried about it not really raining here anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 The top 40' or the radio tower outside my work window has finally appeared after being hidden in fog all morning. Still plenty overcast here in Annapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 2:52 PM, nj2va said: Only 0.01" here ....people were right when they were worried about it not really raining here anymore. Expand Raining is all it does here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Bull Run Mt. doing its dirty work again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 WPC issue Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #988: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=988&yr=2022 Quote 14-day rainfall along and west of I-95 has been generally 150-300% of normal, producing 0-40cm soil moisture that is in the 90-95th percentile according to NASA SPoRT. This has also produced 3-hr FFG that is as low as 1.5 inches in some areas, for which the HREF indicates has a 30-40% chance of exceedance. The most likely area for flash flooding today will be where any training occurs atop the most saturated soils, or within any of the more impermeable areas including the I-95 urban corridor. Flash flooding is possible this aftn and into this evening, before instability begins to wane and drier air advects east with the cold front. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 That storm near Culpepper looks interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 NAM was wrong....raining pretty good here for a bit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Kind of surprised we aren't in a SLGT with a sever t'storm watch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Heaviest rain since i moved here some street flooding out front 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Dew point is 74 and it feels like it. Short dog walk and I’m drenched. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 7:11 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Kind of surprised we aren't in a SLGT with a sever t'storm watch box. Expand Is there a box out?? I haven't seen one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 7:32 PM, high risk said: Is there a box out?? I haven't seen one.... Expand No, just a pity MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 12, 2022 Author Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 7:32 PM, high risk said: Is there a box out?? I haven't seen one.... Expand I think he meant that he's surprised that we are NOT under a Severe T-storm Watch w/ a SLGT risk from SPC based on the activity that he's seeing in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 5:37 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Raining is all it does here Expand Really severe drought here /s/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 7:32 PM, high risk said: Is there a box out?? I haven't seen one.... Expand No. I'm surprise we aren't. On 9/12/2022 at 7:36 PM, George BM said: I think he meant that he's surprised that we are NOT under a Severe T-storm Watch w/ a SLGT risk from SPC based on the activity that he's seeing in the region. Expand That's....what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 7:36 PM, George BM said: I think he meant that he's surprised that we are NOT under a Severe T-storm Watch w/ a SLGT risk from SPC based on the activity that he's seeing in the region. Expand Ah, that makes sense - I misinterpreted. As I mentioned in the SVR thread, I thought that a SLGT was possible, but the MRGL may work ok. I do expect several warnings and a handful of wind reports (and an outside chance of a brief TOR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 12, 2022 Author Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 7:51 PM, Eskimo Joe said: That's....what I said. Expand I know... It was a goof on my part putting the "meant" there that would imply that you said something different. ... A line appears to be trying to organize to west east of the Blue Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Some serious storm training in central Baltimore county up into Harford county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Special Marine Warning ANZ535-536-122130- /O.NEW.KLWX.MA.W.0250.220912T2001Z-220912T2130Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 401 PM EDT Mon Sep 12 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD... Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 401 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 nm west of Quantico, moving east at 10 knots. HAZARD...Wind gusts 34 knots or greater. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Boaters in small craft could be thrown overboard by suddenly higher winds and waves capsizing their vessel. * Locations impacted include... Quantico, Indian Head, Occoquan Bay, Gunston Hall, Mason Neck State Park and Leesylvania State Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 8:01 PM, WxUSAF said: Some serious storm training in central Baltimore county up into Harford county. Expand Tantalizingly close to me. I got .25” in a hurry just on the periphery. Whoever gets trained could see some big totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 .25” here and the purple 2” totals are about a half mile away. edit: To be clear, I’m not complaining. Love some more rain but no floods, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 I-795/I-695 cell really laying down some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Looks like I got about .35" and not much on radar to the west! I seem to have lucked out based on my roof situation. I do see more showers.. so I am cautiously optimistic out here in Purcellville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 8:07 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Tantalizingly close to me. I got .25” in a hurry just on the periphery. Whoever gets trained could see some big totals. Expand Flood warning and radar indicated 3”+ totals per Tommy T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 8:30 PM, WxUSAF said: Flood warning and radar indicated 3”+ totals per Tommy T. Expand iweathernet has 3.25" over Loch Raven. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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