aldie 22 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Hey guys I just woke up from a 4 hour nap...where's the rain at? Radar says my evening bbq plans are still on. We aren't a rain town 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Hey guys I just woke up from a 4 hour nap...where's the rain at? Radar says my evening bbq plans are still on. We aren't a rain town Went up into New England. Massachusetts stole our hydrometeors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Went up into New England. Massachusetts stole our hydrometeors. Seriously though are we done or does something magically appear later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Seriously though are we done or does something magically appear later? I thought rain east of the BR was supposed to be here later tonight/overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I thought rain east of the BR was supposed to be here later tonight/overnight? I figured as much but the NAM just said I laugh at your later tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I figured as much but the NAM just said I laugh at your later tonight Looking like another fail. Ready for a dry fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Seriously though are we done or does something magically appear later? CAMs putting all their money into a 3 - 6 hours period of rain after beginning around midnight - 2:00 am Tuesday. Been watering my lawn all day so maybe I'll tick off the rain gods. EDIT: 18z NAM is ugly. Less than 0.3" rain south and east of I-81. If this were winter people would be screaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 I am praying so hard for you guys. You can have every drop that falls. Already totals in and around Winchester of 1.5-2”. Please do a rain dance and take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Give it a couple months. It's a given that Christmas will torch.....so January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0952 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 450 PM EDT Mon Sep 05 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians...Northern Mid-Atlantic...Central/Southern NY Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 052050Z - 060250Z SUMMARY...Persistent areas of heavy rain with locally focused areas of showers and thunderstorms producing enhanced rainfall rates are expected to drive an increasing threat of flash flooding heading through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR/WV suite shows a deep layer southwest fetch of moisture and energy aloft traversing a large area of the eastern U.S. with an emphasis on the Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon. Already areas of heavy rain with locally embedded pockets of stronger convection are impacting areas from central WV northeast through central to northeast PA, and across areas of central and southern NY. The airmass out across the eastern slopes of the Appalachians and the Piedmont areas of the central/northern Mid-Atlantic has been gradually destabilizing over the last several hours with the persistence of at least filtered solar insolation. MLCAPE values have increased locally to 500 to 1000 j/kg. Meanwhile, PWs across the region are high with values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches which are locally over 2 standard deviations above normal for this time of the year. Over the next several hours, this moisture and energy transport up from the south and southwest will be interacting with some of the more orographically favored terrain along and adjacent to the Blue Ridge from eastern WV through south-central and southeast PA for concerns of locally focused and slow-moving showers and thunderstorms. Radar imagery over the last couple of hours has been showing the development and expansion of convective activity as confluent low-level flow and the improving thermodynamic environment focuses across these areas. Meanwhile, areas farther north across north-central to northeast PA and adjacent areas south-central and southeast NY will also be a focus area for locally very heavy rainfall, and especially with a front stalled out across this region. Stronger frontogenetical forcing and isentropic ascent more broadly over the region coupled with pockets of elevated instability are expected to maintain a broad shield of moderate to locally heavy rain, but with localized swaths of slow-moving convection capable of enhanced rainfall rates. Warm rain processes will be in place this evening given the deeper layer transport of tropical moisture into the region and with much of the forcing noted in the lower/mid-levels of the column. This will yield some efficiently high rainfall rates that will occasionally reach 2 to 3+ inches/hour. Additional rainfall amounts at least locally going through 03Z this evening may reach 3 to 5 inches, with some of the heavier signals for this showing up over areas of south-central NY. Observational trends suggest areas of south-central to northeast PA will need to be closely monitored for similar rainfall amounts. Given the enhanced to locally extreme rainfall rate potential, and the storm totals through mid-evening, the threat for flash flooding will be increasing over the next several hours. Orrison ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI... RLX... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...NWC... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 ^We're on the wrong side of the front. All the efficient rain making processes are up in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 43 minutes ago, IronTy said: It's a given that Christmas will torch.....so January? Oct-Dec are Fall months here. So Jan may feel "chilly". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^We're on the wrong side of the front. All the efficient rain making processes are up in PA. For now. As the W Atlantic ridge continues to weaken, the front will progress southward. Remains to be seen if the combo of upper jet, mid level vorticity advection, and PWAT coincide further south tomorrow. The way things look on latest guidance, I may have to be happy with a half inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: For now. As the W Atlantic ridge continues to weaken, the front will progress southward. Remains to be seen if the combo of upper jet, mid level vorticity advection, and PWAT coincide further south tomorrow. The way things look on latest guidance, I may have to be happy with a half inch here. Always seems like in mid-Septemberish we get a week or cooler cloudy wet weather. I time it every year to plant my grass seed. I've always assumed it's that the front path has finally sunk down to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 1 hour ago, nj2va said: I thought rain east of the BR was supposed to be here later tonight/overnight? Like @WxUSAF’s drought thread in March, you might want to appreciate @leesburg 04’s attempt to be the guy under the bridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Rained a little yesterday and a little today. What’s been kinda surprising to me is how quickly the trails have dried this summer after each rain event. I think fall and winter were somewhat dry which may be part of the reason. I know there have been areas with localized flooding esp closer to dc, but overall it feels like we’ve had just the right amount of rain here. Took a trip to Michaux a couple weeks ago and it was the same story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Brief shower in Ashburn. Grass starting to look pretty dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 HRRR continues to like the overnight hours for a shield of rain. Not local, but 117 in Sacramento is nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 About 1/3” so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 Steady rain here now. Let's do this for about 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 A whopping .02" so far today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I am praying so hard for you guys. You can have every drop that falls. Already totals in and around Winchester of 1.5-2”. Please do a rain dance and take it. Insane. I've got .10" on the day. There are stations 5 to 10 miles away at 2" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From 4 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a slow moving boundary draped across the region Tuesday morning through early Tuesday afternoon. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to drop 2 to 3 inches across much of the watch area, with isolated higher amounts up to 5 inches possible in the heaviest cells. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 Has about 30 min of decent rain around 7pm. Otherwise a whole lot of nada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 I vote for the 00z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 Flood watch??? I’ll take whatever they can deliver but my gut says that LWX gotta hold of @Jebman’s stash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 Got close to 0.6" in the heavy showers that rolled through Howard County at dinner time. Some very solid model consensus for a more widespread area of heavy rain for the early morning hours into rush hour. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 This will work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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