Frog Town Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Lets get on with Winter already! Can't wait to track our first storm and lose my mind cause I'm getting dry slotted. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 30 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Lets get on with Winter already! Can't wait to track our first storm and lose my mind cause I'm getting dry slotted. January less than 4 months away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2022 Author Share Posted September 4, 2022 Radar is a little interesting... can actually pick out a bit of a swirl nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 Cool weekend. Furnace even kicked on this morning once. It still works, so all ready on that end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 4, 2022 Share Posted September 4, 2022 High of 59 at TH arpt yesterday with 45 this morning. High of 63 here in town yesterday with 47 this morning. Mid 60's right now. When it's the warmer season, its cooler by the lake, then it runs opposite as we start entering the colder season. The summer weather next week will feel nice. Get as much as I can as there is not much left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 I've been having some bad wx lately, dark and overcast yesterday with cold temps in the low 60s (much colder than forecast) then a bit warmer today however still dark and overcast ugh. It was suppose to become partly sunny at noon and it didn't happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 Models are showing an upper trough digging down into the western sub this weekend and cutting off. Someone could get a real good rain event, depending on exactly where the low tracks. The latest Euro hits northern Illinois hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2022 Author Share Posted September 6, 2022 We could use some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models are showing an upper trough digging down into the western sub this weekend and cutting off. Someone could get a real good rain event, depending on exactly where the low tracks. The latest Euro hits northern Illinois hard. 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: We could use some rain. This past weekend was supposed to be a wet one in the area. Pops in the 60% or higher and precipitable water in the one inch range. While a few areas got that, in my backyard only recorded 0.01" of rain holding true to the summer trend. I really need some water here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2022 Author Share Posted September 6, 2022 ORD is going to make it through the first week of September with no measurable precip (and really, it will go past that). The last time that happened was in 2015, though I'd point out that September 2021 had 0.01" through the first 16 days of the month, with that little bit of precip coming on 9/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 4 hours ago, bowtie` said: This past weekend was supposed to be a wet one in the area. Pops in the 60% or higher and precipitable water in the one inch range. While a few areas got that, in my backyard only recorded 0.01" of rain holding true to the summer trend. I really need some water here. 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: We could use some rain. Same. Three days in a row with a T on my precipitation report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 Quite the flip in temps being progged mid-month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 Prelim data in for August, and it ended on the warm side. Same with the Summer average, on the warm side, but not excessive for us here in the Lakes/Midwest region. The last 2 previous summers got a little on the hot side at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 Models have converged on a similar scenario this weekend into next week. It appears there will be widespread 1-3" of rain under the deformation zone with some areas receiving 4-6". Every model shows this now. Unfortunately, there is still a possibility of a major screw zone. This morning's Euro does exactly that for southeast Iowa. The Euro is very strong and stalls the low right over me or just west. Southeast Iowa gets major dry-slotted while a ton of rain falls to the nw. The UK, on the other hand, has eastern Iowa near the western edge of the heavy stuff. The Canadian has 1-3" from Nebraska through Michigan. An average of the current models would be fine, but that Euro scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Although drought is incipient over several areas in the sub, the predicted cutoff ULL this weekend/next week should do some damage to that map for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Very smoky, and humid today ahead of the front. Looks like seasonably warmer conditions will persist into next week after a chilly day tomorrow. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 I was looking at the Summer chart for our region, and I added 1 std dev to it, and sure enough, we tend to have more average to above average summers than average to below average ones when using the 20th century as a baseline. Just an interesting tid bit. And you can also see the number of years outside that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Models have trended toward a farther north track of the upper low this weekend, so the rain bullseye has been moved to Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Wildfire smoke finally made it here this year. Tempered highs today just in the lower 80s instead of the expected mid 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Looks like we may be in the bullseye of the heavy rain this weekend. The GFS and Euro both give us over 2". The NAM has been a bit more inconsistent with it's main swath 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 9, 2022 Author Share Posted September 9, 2022 With only a T, this is now the driest start to September at Chicago since 1999. Will tack on another day or two of no measurable precip. Hopefully the winter won't be like 1999-00 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 The new UK shifted the good rain east of my area, but the GFS, GDPS, and Euro are solid with 1+". I'd have loved the 3-4", but it's just not our year for that. 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 NAM, GFS and Euro all now showing over 3" here from tomorrow evening through Monday. NAM even going a little crazy and giving all of Dane county almost 6" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 I'll take the 18z 3km NAM solution in December/January please. EDIT: and now the 00z lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Ready 2 get wet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Great day today, sun mixed with building cu field and temps in the 80s. Big change on the way for tomorrow when temps have a hard time getting out of the 50s with rain much of the day. Models are bouncing around where the heaviest rains will fall, but feel good about getting well over an inch here. Looks like southern WI has the best chance at 3"+. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 A mini-sup passed by a little while ago. Was undercut by the passing cold front but the meso was cranking pretty nicely. Didn't expect to see that from the backyard today. Short time lapse with phone. Wall cloud early on, then undercut by cold front, and after about the 40 sec mark you can see meso cranking on right side of screen after cold front clouds pass by. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPpZjS4X1Uw 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 Steady rain has started here. Relatives in NW Dane County have already gotten an inch. Makes some of those crazy high totals look reachable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 Had to eventually get lucky on one of these convective events. Tonight, was finally my night. 0.81" in the tippy bucket. Nice to get some moisture back into the ground again. Maybe go for broke and double down tomorrow? One can always hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 11, 2022 Share Posted September 11, 2022 Rain event has commenced here, as heavy rain currently falling. The average from the majority of the guidance gives us 2-3" between the two rounds. The 2nd round is the biggest wild card, as that is where most of the variation in local amounts comes from. Up to 0.08" already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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