Hurricane Danielle

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

I know... just we've been waiting for the MDR and rest of the ATL to do something and Danielle way up north shows up

I’ve given up on the MDR at this point lol. I won’t believe anything there until it’s developed. Everything has fallen apart there. It’s extraordinary.

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has a chance.

Very pretty formative core. Could spin up quickly I just don’t think SSTs would allow it to reach MH intensity. Cat 2 certainly on the table with this one. Maybe we crack double digit ACE on the season by September 10, LOL

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 01 2022

The high-latitude tropical cyclone has had quite the increase in 
organization today.  Recent microwave and visible satellite imagery 
shows decent banding features and convection wrapping around the 
low-level center.  Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and 
SAB both estimate Danielle to be a 45-kt system.  However, since the 
storm has continued to improve in appearance, the initial intensity 
has been increased to 50 kt.

Danielle is drifting eastward at 2 kt.  A strong anticyclone over 
the system is creating light and variable steering flow and Danielle 
should continue to meander for the next few days.  In about 4 days, 
the anticyclone is expected to weaken and move eastward and a 
mid-latitude trough should turn and accelerate Danielle to the 
northeast.  The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly westward from 
the previous prediction and is close to the model consensus aids.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear to be conducive for
additional strengthening during the next few days.  The tropical
storm is over anomalously warm waters and global model guidance
indicates the vertical wind shear should gradually decrease over the
next few days.  The official intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward based on the recent strengthening trend and now shows a peak
intensity of 85 kt in 60 hours.  Thereafter, when Danielle is 
forecast to turn northward, it is expected to gradually weaken over 
cooler water temperatures and increased vertical wind shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 38.1N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 38.1N  44.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 38.0N  44.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 38.0N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 38.2N  45.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 38.7N  44.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 40.5N  43.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 42.5N  41.7W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

[WxWatcher007]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Very pretty formative core. Could spin up quickly I just don’t think SSTs would allow it to reach MH intensity. Cat 2 certainly on the table with this one. Maybe we crack double digit ACE on the season by September 10, LOL

I think the modeled venting could compensate for lower end SSTs, but we’ll see. I think a low end 3 would be the max for this but it’s just fun to finally watch something pop in this basin. 

[NorthHillsWx]

At the current rate with the increasingly impressive satellite image, it would not shock me if this system was a hurricane at the next advisory. I wonder what is the furthest north a system has undergone RI? From a TD to a hurricane at this latitude in under 24 hours would be incredibly impressive 

[BlunderStorm]

She's looking snazzy tonight.

[Floydbuster]

What is so amusing is that we were literally 3/0/0 on the morning of September 1st, and within the next week between this and 91L, we could technically be sitting at 5/2/2 in just seven days. I think both Danielle and 91L have a slight chance to reach Category 3 strength as they churn out to sea.

[hlcater]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a run at major status. Water temps are marginal but there is still quite a bit of CAPE available due to cold air aloft. Outflow pattern is good/excellent over the next 72 hours.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

It has an obvious eye, I'm pretty sure next advisory calls it a hurricane.

[NorthHillsWx]

And we have our first hurricane of the season 

It developed on September 2 at about the same latitude as Philadelphia, just like everyone predicted!

[Floydbuster]

Looks tightly coiled. Gonna reach 90-100 mph for sure.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Great Snow 1717]

"Yes!! I will be going sideways"

[NorthHillsWx]

Lol even Danielle has entered the struggle bus. No major coming here. I thought this would be a decent little storm, but looks like a typical mid latitude minimal hurricane 

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Lol even Danielle has entered the struggle bus. No major coming here. I thought this would be a decent little storm, but looks like a typical mid latitude minimal hurricane 

We just suck this year smh. It is what it is. 

[yoda]

Lol

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

...DANIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 43.8W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danielle was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 43.8 West. Danielle is
currently nearly stationary.  A westward drift is expected today 
and Sunday, followed by a northward drift on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is expected today.  
Some slight strengthening is expected tonight through Monday, and 
Danielle could regain hurricane strength on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Danielle Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 03 2022

Convection associated with Danielle has continued to decrease this 
morning, with a corresponding decrease in satellite intensity 
estimates.  Based on this decrease, it is estimated that Danielle 
has weakened to a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 60 kt. 
While it is not known why the storm has weakened, one possibility 
is that the slow motion has allowed the cyclone to upwell cold 
water underneath it. 

Danielle is essentially stationary with a 12-h motion of 270/1 kt.  
The cyclone is still caught south of a blocking high over the North 
Atlantic.  This pattern is expected to hold firm for a couple of 
days, with the system forecast to drift westward and then drift 
northward.  After 48-60 h, the block will weaken and allow the 
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies to steer Danielle 
generally northeastward at a faster forward speed.  There are no 
significant changes to the forecast track for the first 48-60 h.  
After that, the forecast has been nudged eastward due to a shift 
in the guidance envelope.

The intensity guidance is still calling for Danielle to strengthen 
for 72 h or so.  Given the possibility of upwelling and the 
forecast continued slow motion, the guidance might be a bit 
optimistic on that.  The new intensity forecast calls for little 
change in strength for 12 h or so, followed by slow strengthening 
on the premise that the storm will move over somewhat warmer water. 
After 72 h, the storm is likely to interact with an upper-level 
trough, which could help maintain the intensity even as Danielle 
moves toward much colder water in the North Atlantic.  This trough 
will also start extratropical transition, although this will 
likely not be complete by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 38.0N  43.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 38.1N  44.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 38.5N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 39.1N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 39.9N  43.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 40.7N  42.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 43.0N  39.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 46.5N  35.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like Danielle is off and running again. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Danielle looks worlds better today. May have a shot at cat 2. I think it gets there. 

[WxWatcher007]

For posterity. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For posterity. 

Imagine if this storm had sufficient warm  water under it… Shed be a beaut 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Prismshine Productions]

She is a donut this morning

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[NorthHillsWx]

Amazingly, Danielle looks very potent this morning. The presentation of the system is as good as it has looked to date. At such a high latitude, it’s days are numbered, but this has been an impressive and anomalous system 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s running out of time as a hurricane and didn’t quite meet its intensity potential, but this has been quite an impressive system at this latitude.

 

[WxWatcher007]

I mean it’s up at 45N  

[yoda]

NHC just issued its last advisory on Danielle

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Danielle Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

...DANIELLE NOW POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.9N 31.0W
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Danielle was located near latitude 47.9 North, longitude 31.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
14 mph (22 km/h). The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to make a 
gradual counter-clockwise loop during the next 36 h, and then move 
generally southeastward to east-southeastward through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Danielle is forecast to remain a large 
post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic for the next several 
days, even as its peak winds slowly decrease.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

[NorthHillsWx]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

NHC just issued its last advisory on Danielle

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Danielle Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 08 2022

...DANIELLE NOW POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.9N 31.0W
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Danielle was located near latitude 47.9 North, longitude 31.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
14 mph (22 km/h). The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to make a 
gradual counter-clockwise loop during the next 36 h, and then move 
generally southeastward to east-southeastward through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Danielle is forecast to remain a large 
post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic for the next several 
days, even as its peak winds slowly decrease.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

Was quite the run for this arctic hurricane