wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Still good for northern mountains and most of central and southern. It was a big decrease for northern foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Some wabbles here and there. The dynamics of this system are complex and just the slightest thing will throw more or less snow into an area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Still good for northern mountains and most of central and southern. It was a big decrease for northern foothills. This was the opposite trend of the NAM and the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 It's so borderline here it's honestly going to be a nowcast situation I think. If we get under the heavy deformation band we could get 3 to 5. If not its likely we get mostly slop and a dusting to an inch. Good thing is.. It's a pretty quick drive to the victor tract and 3k plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's so borderline here it's honestly going to be a nowcast situation I think. If we get under the heavy deformation band we could get 3 to 5. If not its likely we get mostly slop and a dusting to an inch. Good thing is.. It's a pretty quick drive to the victor tract and 3k plus. Yeah I think the majority of this storm is going to be a nowcast situation with this ull really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 00z eps mean snowfall depth. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The eps actually upped totals from the 12z suite yesterday.. Again the mountains look to be in a great position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 06z nam snowfall map. The ull jogged NW a bit and laid down much more ice with this run. Im not buying it at this point. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 06z nam freezing rain map. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 06z gfs snowfall map. The ull is cutting up more northward which to me will cut down on totals and we already see that this morning on the NAM and gfs. We will see if this is a trend or a blip.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 NAM was just a massive jump for a single run, similar to what the Euro did yesterday moving the jackpot zone all the way west of knoxville. Hopefully it's one of those windshield wiper over-corrections and it'll tick back east over its next few runs. Trends have honestly been poor across most guidance since mid day yesterday. Which is not necessarily a bad thing as its rare to ride the jackpot zone all the way from 60+ hours out. I'd rather it do so now than a rug pull in the final 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Love the honesty in the Atlanta AFD this morning. As of now, even on Day 3, there remains an abundance of questions that we don`t quite have answers for, and frankly, may not fully know until the event is underway. How deep and in what location will the upper-level low set up? Cutoff upper lows are notoriously hard to predict given the lack of steering flow aloft, yet the positioning will determine where and when wintry precip begins. What will temperatures be in the mid-levels of the atmosphere? Up until this point, temperature profiles cooled continuously with elevation, but now some models are showing temperatures above freezing between the 700-850 hPa levels, right where the warm, moist conveyer belt will set up which could turn wintry ptypes from snow to sleet. Will the surface low drive a wedge front through the region and if so, how far and how deep? This question could have significant impacts for the I-20 corridor NE of Atlanta in terms of ptype duration late Sunday morning and afternoon. How much snow will be able to accumulate with temperatures in the mid 30s? How much will temperatures drop if heavier snow does make it to the ground? We have a lot of questions that will begin to slowly come into view, but honestly, several wintry parameters are forecast to be on a knife`s edge throughout this event and could easily go one way or another. While we`re not anticipating any more impacts outside of elevations over 1500 feet at this time, it`s still important to be prepared, just in case, so please check back for future updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Wow, GSP with 8-12 across most of Avery County. Not sure I saw that coming overnight. @MotoWeathermanis it going to be raining or snowing when we wake up Sunday morning on Beech? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Trends are not our friend overnight. Hopefully the bleeding stops or it moves back in the other direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Trends are not our friend overnight. Hopefully the bleeding stops or it moves back in the other direction Agreed. However, we've seen this before the last couple of days. I am just not liking the ZR look on the NAM. PASS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Let's see what the short range guidance says today. Last night it all moved NW and put the deform band through east TN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 HRRR coming into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Improvement on the sref 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 It's warmer than the previous run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 In my experience HRRR is garbage on thermals. Good with convective processes and precip pattern when in range, but terrible with thermals. I remember it being off by 5-10 degrees at the surface for the ULL snow in February 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 So just looking at the 06z Euro, I start by looking at the upper level chart and see that it ticked noticeably stronger with the ULL with a nearly identical track. I assumed this would lead to a better pull of upper level cold to work with but instead it did the exact opposite and continued to reduce the extent and intensity of the 850 mbar cold pool. Is this unfortunately just the models playing catch up on the ULL being cutoff from any real cold source to pull from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 This NAm run looks like its going to continue the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 All the snow on previous runs in N GA is gone this run so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Yeah, 12Z NAM is not it. Moisture is not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Could be an ugly day of model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 12 NAM starts to rapidly strengthen the ULL over southern AL versus GA this run vs 0z last night. This pulls it NE sooner which is doom in my opinion. One thing you can almost always count on is that the warm nose will be underdone on the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Every short range model I can find is a disaster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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