SnowDawg Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Sueprised nobody has mentioned the hi res NAM. Its not fully into range but looks pretty awful. It's all the way at the end of its range for one, but honestly it doesn't look all that different from the 12k at the same timeframe. If rolled forward it would probably produce similar results, just finer details obviously. Now I know the NAM wasn't great for everybody but that's a whole different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Panovich 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Lots of love for WNC on the weather channel! Not telling you folks anything you don’t know but low placement & strength are going to be key in this one. Really hard for the models to pinpoint this. Synoptically the far SW Mnts except at high elevations will have boundary layer issues, the escarpment areas do well, the Balsams rake, the French Broad valley snow hole may appear, the Northern Mnts will have great variations but will generally over preform, the Foothills will be very tricky. Will be a exciting and frustrating chase for you guys. All in all a typical southern winter system for WNC! . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Lots of love for WNC on the weather channel! Not telling you folks anything you don’t know but low placement & strength are going to be key in this one. Really hard for the models to pinpoint this. Synoptically the far SW Mnts except at high elevations will have boundary layer issues, the escarpment areas do well, the Balsams rake, the French Broad valley snow hole may appear, the Northern Mnts will have great variations but will generally over preform, the Foothills will be very tricky. Will be a exciting and frustrating chase for you guys. All in all a typical southern winter system for WNC! . Yeah it's been years since we've had a storm roll through here like this. I can remember one winter all we got was ull lows coming through. That was about what 7 or 8 years ago. One thing I like is seeing the euro and the gfs agree on this thing. The details may not get ironed out until it is actually happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 57 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Panovich Thats pretty painful for the foothills but he's usually conservative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Thats pretty painful for the foothills but he's usually conservative He just filtered it by elevation. Looks like he’s saying above 1200’ is where accumulation would be and the. Going from there i.e. above 3500’ =5-7”, above 5000’ = 7-9”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Thats pretty painful for the foothills but he's usually conservative I think his entire graphic/forecast is simply based on elevation. Thus, the lower elevations of the foothills and piedmont get very little and all the high peaks of the Apps are in pink. It’s not necessarily a bad way to go, but I think your geographic location (more north, more west, more…) should also play into a full forecast. For instance, Hunter’s forecast has more snow forecast for the high peaks in the Balsams area than Panovich has for up around Grandfather Mountain, even though they are relatively the same in elevation. Thus, Hunter’s is more nuanced to consider other factors than just elevation. (To be fair to Panovich, he seems to be calling this “potential” rather than a forecast.) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 30 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I think his entire graphic/forecast is simply based on elevation. Thus, the lower elevations of the foothills and piedmont get very little and all the high peaks of the Apps are in pink. It’s not necessarily a bad way to go, but I think your geographic location (more north, more west, more…) should also play into a full forecast. For instance, Hunter’s forecast has more snow forecast for the high peaks in the Balsams area than Panovich has for up around Grandfather Mountain, even though they are relatively the same in elevation. Thus, Hunter’s is more nuanced to consider other factors than just elevation. (To be fair to Panovich, he seems to be calling this “potential” rather than a forecast.) Yes based on elevation but that doesn't always work as you said. I will take Hunters local expertise on microclimates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 More ZR on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 More ZR on the NAM 12km a little colder this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 NAM big hit for smokies and SW NC. Not as good once again for the northern mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Great nam run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 I'm literally 10 miles from less than an inch and 10 miles or less from 8+ on the NAM. 3 or 4 ish imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 00z NAM snowfall. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 00z NAM snowfall. Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkI would take that and run for sure. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 To me the NAM took a step towards the gfs and the euro. Honestly if you are outside the mountains this has a high bust potential with temps. The foothills is way iffy. It is literally razor thin with temps and the upper levels. We are basically at 48 hours of go time with this event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Also in regards to the snowfall map. Either this is going to be a ton of rain or a ton of snow. I really don't see an in-between with this event. We will see but something that @franklin NCwx said earlier really stuck with me about this system. Either or... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Another great hit by the gfs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 It's taking longer to turnover each run but there are heavy rates and it adds up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 00z gfs snowfall mapSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Gfs is not as good so far 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Another great hit by the gfs so far. Let’s allow the run to develop before declaring it a bust. LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Just now, Maggie Ace said: 17 inches in Maggie this run. Kuchera should be more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: 17 inches in Maggie this run. Again cut that in half even and that's a great storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 This is definitely better for the foothills also. Good trends for them on the NAM and the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1-2 sloppy inches of heavy wet snow would be a great win for Hickory. These ratios are going to be like 5:1, not 10.1. Thus, I’ll adjust the GFS Kuchera output for KHKY of 5.3 down to 2 or so. Hoping to see actual snowflakes fall from the sky. It’s been so long… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, calculus1 said: 1-2 sloppy inches of heavy wet snow would be a great win for Hickory. These ratios are going to be like 5:1, not 10.1. Thus, I’ll adjust the GFS Kuchera output for KHKY of 5.3 down to 2 or so. Hoping to see actual snowflakes fall from the sky. It’s been so long… Yeah this is going to be an extremely heavy wet snow for sure. A beautiful snow that will lay on everything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 00z gefs mean snowfall. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Another great run by the op gfs and the ensembles. I really like Hunters video from earlier and his first call map. I think anything in the range of 4 to 8 inches is a huge win especially area wide. Lets hope the euro continues the great model runs into tomorrow morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Euro looks a little more NW than 12Z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 00z euro snowfall Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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