Met1985 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Looks like it some ice tomorrow for the favored CAD regions. Buncombe- Including the cities of Asheville, Black Mountain, and Candler 421 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of less than a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...High elevations of Buncombe County around the Black Mountains. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe- Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath- Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst- Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Hinton, Hix, Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 405 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Areas of sleet and freezing rain expected. Total sleet accumulations of up to a half inch and ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northwest North Carolina, southwest and west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 The gfs is the only model this morning that looks decent for upslope snow. The euro is paltry and the NAM has back off it's totals. Also once we get this cold front around the 27th the whole country goes zonal and we end up warming right back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 23 this morning. Damn shame it will be 35 and raining this time tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 17 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the so called pattern change is not going to come to fruition until probably March.... There has been a recurring theme that has repeated since September. And that is exactly what we are looking at. At this point the only way we get a synoptic storm is threading the needle on a storm because we are getting plenty of moisture in here. Seems we have seen that most springs, teleconnections go cold, lock in the east coast trough sometime in March and largely stay that way until mid-May. Today is a prime example of a beautiful 50 degree January day that you would never get in the spring because 20 to 30 mph winds always accompany the cooler temps that time of year. Enjoy today folks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 The SE ridge is relentless on todays maps. That and diving systems down to the four corners doesn't do us any good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: While some are lamenting that winter is done and dead, we likely are about to experience a week with multiple chances of snow, possibly 3 to be exact. Mt hope is our ski areas have more chances to make snow and some natural to increase their bases. I frankly don't trust what wx Twitter and the model mood swings are selling. I will gladly post pictures throughout the week, if it verifies and be satisfied. Yeah, GSP just added "rain and snow likely" to my forecast on Tuesday night down here. Didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 The 12z Euro really doesn't look terrible for NWF mid-week. I'm curious to see which model winds up right with the clipper on Saturday morning. GFS would be a nice little snow hit but the Euro is like "what system". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Gsp has 1-2 inches of sleet in my forecast tomorrow and 1 to 2" of snow tomorrow night. Better than nothing... I really haven't seen sleet since I moved to the high country so it would be interesting at least.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 00z NAM is a nice hit for the mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 The is the 12z euro at hour 60.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Im not trying to be a downer but this is concerning to me. The second image was from the eps 12z suite for 01-30, the first image is from today's eps 12z suite for the same time frame. You go from a decent look to the SE RIDGE flexing. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 The 00z gfs for tomorrow night into Monday Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Good morning everyone. Surprisingly we are sitting right at 32 degrees getting a mixture of rain and sleet this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Temp just backed down to 31 with some snow mixing in now. Back to bed for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I’m in Boone, everything has a glaze on it this morning with light rain falling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 38 and wet up here in Wolf. I don't mind it a bit!Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I've noticed that the ensembles have backed off the se ridge today even the eps but the eps is the warmer Ensemble out of all of them which is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 12z NAM going with the north mountains currently. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 12z gfs goes with more of a uniform look across the mountains Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 On the 12z gfs the clipper coming in looks best for the northern mountains. It looks pathetic really. Seems like it's going the way of the euro. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Again on the 12z gfs suite the se ridge is getting besten back by the tpv which could allow for a sneaky system late in the game. My target date of 01-30 has been cooling down since yesterday on the operationals and the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 It is a crying shame that in the extended range in January we get a low that tracks south of us and we still cannot pull a snowstorm out of that scenario. I don't care what you say. That is a sign of a crap pattern if there ever was one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 You know it's not good when Met1985 isn't being positive. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 WSW issued for Mountain City down to Gatlinburg! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE 4:29 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches possible above 2500 feet. 4 to 8 inches possible at the highest peaks. * WHERE...Portions of the East Tennessee mountains * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds could also gust up to 30 mph in the higher elevations during this time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 54 minutes ago, K4CF said: WSW issued for Mountain City down to Gatlinburg!URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE 4:29 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 4 inches possible above 2500 feet. 4 to 8 inches possible at the highest peaks. * WHERE...Portions of the East Tennessee mountains * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds could also gust up to 30 mph in the higher elevations during this time. GSP is planning on reissiung a WWA instead of a watch. Different criteria on this side of the mountains I presume. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 105 PM EST Sunday: The main precip area will lift out to the east before the cold air arrives east of the mtns, so no problems there. That will not be the case across the mountains, however. A transition to a NW Flow Upslope precip event takes place late tonight as the 850 mb trof passes around 06Z and cold air advection commences. Precip probs rise back to likely/categorical in the upslope areas near the TN border in the early morning hours and precip changes from rain to snow from the ridgetops down to the valleys between midnight and daybreak. The NW flow snow will continue through the better part of the day on Monday mostly near the TN border. Snow amounts are expected to be more variable than the last event with less of a potential for snow outside of the upslope areas. That being said, guidance shows a window of opportunity between 12Z and 18Z Monday when the moisture will poke up into the dendritic growth zone, affording some good snow making potential. Will not be surprised if elevations above 4500 feet or so get 6-12 inches between Midnight and late afternoon Monday, but overall, an average snowfall across elevations above 3500 feet is not likely to reach Warning criteria. The present course is toward issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight and Monday along the TN border. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: It is a crying shame that in the extended range in January we get a low that tracks south of us and we still cannot pull a snowstorm out of that scenario. I don't care what you say. That is a sign of a crap pattern if there ever was one. I’ve tried to dial back my pessimism the last few weeks since it’s still early but I think it’s safe to say our odds in the SE for a synoptic event this winter are trending down quick. Wouldn’t totally be shocked to see a fluke event such as an upper low digging at the perfect time but this just might not be our year for a biggie. Hope I’m wrong! On the bright side, for most you, snow is possible through April. It might be a backloaded winter in the High Country anyways, because it seems like our pattern always goes harshly cold in March lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 I'm sure it will be in the 20s and windy for the opening of trout season in April 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC224 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023NCZ033-048>052-058-230400-/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0003.230123T0500Z-230123T2100Z/Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,and Stecoah224 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO4 PM EST MONDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.* WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina.* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Monday.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Locations along the Tennessee border at elevations above 4500 feet on the northwest facing slopes could receive snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Up to 2 inches will be possible in the valleys.Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 26 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm sure it will be in the 20s and windy for the opening of trout season in April Hey now. It makes finding a rock to stand on all that much easier. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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